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題名:風險移轉模式之建構
作者:魏秋水
校院名稱:中華大學
系所名稱:科技管理學系(所)
指導教授:李欣怡
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2008
主題關鍵詞:決策風險風險移轉decisionriskrisk transformation
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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任何決策者都會遇到的共同關鍵問題是;決策的制定和行動的過程都會潛藏著許多未知的風險,它們可能是來自於未來的不確定性,競爭對手的捉摸不定,問題的突變和演化,或是決策者無法掌握環境的變化。時常被採用的風險因應對策,包括制定品質比較好的計劃、進行嚴格的訓練或是指派最優秀的人員,這些做法或許可以降低風險發生的機率,但是因為無法羅列出所有未來可能的風險事件,因此決策者仍舊無法消除所有的負面影響因素。另外一個應付風險的常用做法,是設計一套嚴密的風險管理標準流程,來規範風險管理人員的思維模式、管理機制和處理順序,通常包括風險的辨識、風險的分析、風險的因應、風險的監督和風險的控制。這些風險管理的標準流程雖然可以讓組織的風險管理制度化,但是還是無法瞭解風險對組織的整體性連鎖效應,也就是風險如何在組織內部擴散和傳遞。截至目前的研究很少注意到風險如何隨著時間的變化,在組織內部的有形空間和無形領域之間的互相移轉現象,也因為缺乏對風險病理的完整掌握、因此組織無法提出一個有效、完整和全面的風險治理方式。為了填補這個空缺,本論文試圖發展一套可以預測風險移轉的評估模式,協助組織和企業降低風險對達成目標的危害。
One of the most critical and common issues that every decision maker needs to face is the potential hidden risks in association with the decisions to be finalized and the actions to be taken. It may be due to the future uncertainties involved, the unpredictable competitors’ strategies, the mutation and evolution of problems and the decision maker’s inability of adapting himself to the changing environments. Formulating better plan, performing strict training and finding best personnel to execute the plan may potentially reduce the possibility of risks occurrence, however, it is still not possible for the decision makers to eliminate all risks that will potentially affect the outcome of the decision, because an exhaustive list of risk events is difficult to obtain. Additionally, developing a standardized risk management system, including risk identification, risk analysis, risk response planning, risk monitoring and risk control, may be able to regulate organizational risk management processes, nevertheless, predicting the chain reaction of risks within organization is still not feasible. Previous researches seldom focused on the risk transformation phenomenon, and therefore cannot provide a complete and overall exploration and control of risks. The objective of this study is to develop a model that can predict the transformation of the risks that may be exhibited during the formulation
of a decision and the execution of an operation.
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