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題名：地主參與碳匯方案與機制之經濟分析
作者：柳婉郁 引用關係
作者(外文)：Wan-Yu Liu
校院名稱：國立臺灣大學
系所名稱：農業經濟學研究所
指導教授：林國慶
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：清潔發展機制；森林碳吸存交易；農地碳匯合約；碳補貼政策；京都議定書；Clean Development Mechanism；Forest Carbon Trading；Agricultural Carbon Contract；Carbon Subsidy；Kyoto Protocol
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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為因應溫室氣體排放量增加所造成全球氣候變遷對人類社會之不利影響，近年來世界各國均積極採取各種方式來降低溫室氣體之排放量，其中增加森林碳吸存被視為是成本較低的減量策略。在缺乏政府介入下，社會上之碳吸存量可能無法達到最適，而相關碳匯方案與市場機制將有助於增加整體的碳吸存，進而減緩氣候變遷的問題。本研究根據過去文獻以及我國目前之環境，分析京都議定書中所允許且目前世界各國鼓勵實施之四項政策機制，包括清潔發展機制、碳吸存交易制度、農地碳匯合約及碳補貼政策。首先，本研究延伸前人所建立之地主參與清潔發展機制理論模型，進一步實證分析我國地主參與此機制下，其造林碳吸存量、造林收入、碳吸存收入以及短期權證與長期權證之供給價格。其次，本研究推導出地主參與部門間之碳吸存交易制度之理論模型，並實證模擬分析在各種碳吸存給付制度下，我國地主之造林決策、交易價格、造林收入以及碳吸存收入。再者，本研究建立地主參與農地碳匯合約下之決策模型，進行理論模型建立與比較靜態分析，更進一步進行模擬分析，包括合約下最適契約期間之決定，各種情境下土地收益與碳吸存收益之變化，及相關變數對地主經營決策的影響。最後，本研究建立地主參與政府實施之碳補貼政策之土地利用決策模型，並以我國為例進行動態規劃模擬分析，包括在各種碳補貼政策下地主之土地利用決策、土地收益與碳吸存收益之變化、以及相關變數對地主土地利用決策之影響。最後本研究綜合理論與實證分析結果，提出政策建議如下：（1）因應國際溫室氣體減量趨勢以及京都議定書規範，政府針對不同類型之地主應規劃不同碳匯方案與交易機制，以提升地主之造林誘因；（2）地主參與森林碳吸存交易制度或碳補貼政策措施時，並不一定會延長輪伐期，故政府在建立或實施相關機制時必須考量影響輪伐期之相關因素；（3）政府降低農地土壤碳匯合約之耕作集約度上限，並不一定能增長農地土壤碳儲存期間，故政府對於碳匯合約之耕作集約度上限必須妥善規劃；（4）利用休耕農地來進行土壤碳匯管理為國際減量之趨勢，政府可以考慮對休耕農地提供土壤碳匯給付，以因應溫室氣體減量，並提升休耕農地之利用效率；（5）我國政府所實施的各項碳管理與碳交易政策應與國際接軌；（6）政府應強化碳管理的基礎資訊系統，以提升各種碳匯方案與相關機制之執行效率。
In order to reduce the negative impact due to the climate change resulting from increasing greenhouse gases, many countries in the world have actively adopted various kinds of approaches to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Among those the forest carbon sink/sequestration has been regarded as one of the strategies which can provide the lowest costs for the reduction of emissions. If there is no government intervention, due to the externality problems, the amount of carbon sequestration may not reach the socially optimal level. The introduction of carbon sequestration programs as well as related market mechanisms would help to facilitate the increase of the total amount of carbon sequestration, and to alleviate the climate change problem. The main objective of this study is to theoretically and empirically analyze the following four programs and mechanisms in Kyoto Protocol, namely, clean development mechanism, forest carbon trading, agricultural carbon contract, and carbon subsidy. Built on the previous literatures and the current environment in Taiwan, this study investigates how the landowners in Taiwan make their land use decisions when participating in the above four programs or mechanisms. This study consists of four parts. Firstly, the theoretical model of landowners'' participation in the clean development mechanism has been extended and the empirical study has been conducted to analyze the amount of carbon sequestration, the cost of afforestation, as well as the supply prices of temporary and long-term Certified Emission Reductions (CER) when the landowners in Taiwan participate in this mechanism. Secondly, the theoretical model of landowners'' participation in the forest carbon trading mechanism among different sectors has been formulated and derived. Under various payment measures for carbon sequestration, the simulation has been conducted to analyze landowners'' decision making in Taiwan, including carbon trading prices, landowners'' income, as well as income derived from carbon sequestration,. Thirdly, the decision-making model of landowners'' participation in agricultural carbon contract has been formulated and derived. The comparative static and simulation analyses have been conducted to analyze the optimal length of the agricultural carbon contract, the changes in the profits of land as well as the carbon sequestration in various scenarios, and the effects of related variables on landowners'' land use decision. Lastly, a decision-making model of landowners'' participation in the carbon subsidy policy has been established, and a dynamic programming simulation under different carbon subsidy policies has been conducted to analyze the landowners'' land use decisions in Taiwan, including the changes in the profits of land as well as carbon sequestration, and the effects of related variables on landowners'' land use decisions. Based on the results derived from the above theoretical and empirical analysis in landowners'' land use decisions, some policy recommendations are made as follows: (1) In response to the international trend toward the reduction of greenhouse gases emission and to comply with the Kyoto norms, the government should design separate carbon programs and trading mechanisms for different types of private landowners to strengthen their incentives in participating in the afforestation program. (2) When landowners participate in forest carbon trading mechanisms or carbon subsidy policies, they may not always lengthen their forest rotation period. Therefore, when the government decides to implement these policies or mechanisms, it should take into account the factors affecting the length of forest rotation period. (3) When the government lowers the upper bound of the cultivation intensity in soil carbon contracts, the length of the carbon storage period of the soil of agricultural land may not be always lengthened. In order to make sure the carbon storage period will be increased after the introduction of the program, an appropriate level of the upper bound of the cultivation intensity of soil carbon contracts should be carefully examined and determined. (4) Following the international trend of using fallow land as carbon sinks through soil management, the government should consider providing carbon sink payment to fallow land to increase the efficiency of land uses. (5) All the carbon management and carbon trading policies implemented by the government should be well connected to the international institutions and brought in line with the international practice. (6) The government should strengthen the information systems of carbon management to increase the efficiency of formulating and implementing carbon programs and related mechanisms.
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