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題名:貨櫃船舶設籍登記選擇之研究 - 運用修正式決策實驗室分析法
作者:楊星治
作者(外文):Shing-Chih Yang
校院名稱:國立臺灣海洋大學
系所名稱:航運管理學系
指導教授:李選士
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:船籍登記模糊德爾菲法決策實驗室分析法修正式決策實驗室分析法Shipping registryFuzzy Delphi MethodDEMATELRDEMATEL
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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交通為經貿之母,我國因四面環海,爰對於海運之依存度相當高,為發展經貿,航運政策與國輪發展課題至關重要。近年來我國船舶運輸業者因經營成本提高,衍生船舶出籍情形,使國輪船隊之發展因而無法擴大,國輪船隊發展面臨嚴重之考驗。綜觀我國國輪出籍的因素,主要是船東爲降低營運成本、規避管制等因素所致。
本研究主要動機在於探討我國貨櫃船舶運輸業者對於船舶設籍登記之考量因素,檢視我國船舶設籍登記與國輪發展之現況,並探討我國船舶出籍之因素,研擬具體因應對策,以作為政府相關單位未來對船舶登記設籍制度之規範與制定航運發展政策之參考。
決策實驗室分析法 (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL) 已運用於許多領域,例如行銷策略、控制系統、安全問題和群體決策。亦可搭配如網絡分析法(ANP),多準則決策(MCDM),模糊集理論(Fuzzy Set Theory)等研究方法來運用。
DEMATEL模式係以建立初始直接關係矩陣,藉由觀察因素之間兩兩互相影響之程度,利用矩陣及相關數學理論計算全體因素間之因果關係與影響強度,進而有效了解評估準則與決策目標之間複雜的因果關係結構。近年來DEMATEL已被世界各國研究學者廣泛運用決策方面等議題;惟依研究顯示,初始直接關係矩陣可能不會有收斂效果,亦即DEMATEL方法本身具有其盲點之缺點。經本研究提出修正式DEMATEL模式,發現RDEMATEL可以改善DEMATEL收斂到零之效果,本研究以實證分析作為提出之修正模式之佐證,有助於後進學者進行相關研究引用之參考。
The convenience of traffic will be the key factor for the development of economic and international trade. Taiwan is surrounding by sea. Shipping policy is crucial to the development of national containership. Due to increased operating costs, the country containership team development is limited during recent years. The problem of flagging out has become a test of our containership team development facing seriously. The main reasons of flagging out will be the shipowners try to reduce operating costs in response to operation of the regional problems, or an attempt to reduce government control.
The main motivation for this study is to explore the ship set membership system. By gathering ship domiciled system, to view the current status of the absence of the country containership industry development and explore the factors of flagging-out. We try to develop a specific response strategies for the relevant government units ship domiciled system specification develop the shipping development policy reference.
DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) has been applied in many situations, such as marketing strategies, control systems, safety problems, developing the competencies of global managers and group decision making. It has been incorporated into other methods such as ANP (Analytical Network Process), MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision Making), fuzzy set theory, etc., to vitalize these traditional methods and explore new applications for the hybrid methods. DEMATEL models the influences of components of a system with an initial direct relation matrix. Influences of components can ripple transitively to other components, which is modeled by raising the initial direct relation matrix to powers. The total influence is computed by summing up matrices of all powers based on the assumption that the matrix raising to the power of infinity would converge to zero. The current paper shows that raising the initial relation matrix to the power of infinity may not converge to zero and hence total influence may not converge. The current paper also shows that our revised DEMATEL guarantees that the initial direct-relation matrix to infinite power will converge to zero and the total influence can be obtained accordingly. The newly developed approach is illustrated with numerical examples.
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