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題名:我國債務水準與經濟成長之關係研究
作者:曾銘宗 引用關係
作者(外文):TSENG, MING-CHUNG
校院名稱:國立臺北大學
系所名稱:企業管理學系
指導教授:古永嘉
王祝三
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2013
主題關鍵詞:政府債務資本形成經濟成長Government debtCapital formationEconomic growth
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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自2008年9月雷曼兄弟投資銀行倒閉以來,美國次貸危機引爆全球金融海嘯,造成許多國家經濟衰退。為因應經濟衰退並處理金融機構財務問題,各國均大量擴張財政支出,但也造成各國財政狀況急速惡化,衍生地區性的財政危機。
穩健的財政是國家、經濟、社會發展的基礎,截至民國101年底,我國廣義債務占GDP的比率為49.8%,為瞭解我國政府債務對資本形成及經濟發展的影響,爰進行本研究。政府債務對經濟成長的影響,依據多年來經濟學者的實證研究,有三種不同論點:第一種Turnovsky (1995)等學者主張,政府債務可刺激經濟成長;第二種Diamond (1965)等學者認為,政府債務不利經濟成長;第三種Elbadawi et al.(1997)等學者則認為,政府債務與經濟成長為非線性關係,即政府債務小於一定比率時,對經濟成長有正面貢獻;政府債務大於一定比率時,則對經濟成長有負向影響。
本研究蒐集民國74年至101年底,廣義債務占GDP比率(Debt)、每人平均固定資本形成成長率(Capital)及經濟成長率(Growth)各28筆資料,利用「向量自我迴歸(VAR)」、「衝擊反應函數分析(Impulse Response Function)」及「預測誤差之變異分解(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition)」進行實證。在VAR實證模型中,廣義債務占GDP比率(Debt),對每人平均固定資本形成成長率(Capital)及經濟成長率(Growth)呈現顯著負面影響。在衝擊反應函數分析結果,廣義債務占GDP比率(Debt)變動一個標準差時,在短期內,對每人平均固定資本形成成長率(Capital)及經濟成長率(Growth),在反應圖上,雖呈現負面影響,但在統計上並不顯著,因而無法印證,廣義債務占GDP比率(Debt),短期內,對每人平均固定資本形成成長率(Capital) 及經濟成長率(Growth),有正面的影響。在長期上,則對每人平均固定資本形成成長率(Capital)及經濟成長率(Growth),在反應圖及統計上,均呈現顯著負面影響,且每人平均固定資本形成成長率(Capital)的反應幅度高於經濟成長率(Growth)。
Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings in September 2008 and the associated subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. and global financial tsunami, many economies experienced economic recession. In order to respond to the economic downturn and the problems with the financial structure of the banking system, many economies expanded their fiscal expenditures. Yet, these measures led to deterioration in economies’ public finance conditions and brought about regional fiscal crises.
Sound public finance is the foundation of national, economic and social development. The debt-to-GDP ratio (in a broad sense) was 49.8% in 2012 in Taiwan. This study aims at understanding the impact of government debt on capital formation and economic development. There are three different perspectives in the previous literature. The first one is the stimulus view, proposed by Turnovsky (1995), among others. The second one is that of negative influence, proposed by Diamond (1965), among others. The third one is that of a non-linear relationship, proposed by Elbadawi et al. (1997), among others. This third view claims that government debt has a positive impact on economic growth under a certain threshold while the relationship turns to negative if the debt ratio is above the critical value.
This study utilizes VAR, Impulse Response Function, and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition models to analyze the data of debt-to-GDP ratio, the growth rate of per capita fixed capital formation and economic growth rate from Taiwan over the period of 1985-2012. We find that debt-to-GDP ratio has a significant negative influence on capital formation and economic growth in a VAR model. In the Impulse Response Function model, when debt-to-GDP ratio changes a standard deviation, capital formation and economic growth respond negatively yet non-significantly in the short run. Hence, we cannot show that government debt has a positive influence on capital formation and economic growth in the short run. However, in the long run, debt-to-GDP ratio significantly and negatively affects capital formation and economic growth. Furthermore, the influence on capital formation is larger than that for economic growth.
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