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題名：利用部分均衡和一般均衡模型來整合環境與健康影響評估與經濟成本效益分析—台灣生質能源發展和傳染病防治策略之應用
作者：張嫤雪
作者(外文)：Chin-Hsiue Chang
校院名稱：臺灣大學
系所名稱：農業經濟學研究所
指導教授：張靜貞
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2014
主題關鍵詞：桐樹；生質能源；經濟可行性評估；投入產出模型；新型流感；流感；經濟影響評估；可計算一般均衡模型；成本效益分析；Tung Tree (Vernicia fordii)；Biofuels；Economic Feasibility；Input-Output Model；H1N1；Pandemic；Economic Impact Assessment；Taiwan Computable General Equilibrium Model；Cost-Benefit Analyses
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本文應用部分均衡模型（投入產出模型）與一般均衡模型（台灣可計算一般均衡模型），分別將環境和健康因子對台灣能源發展與流行病防疫之影響納入經濟成本效益分析中，俾作為政府未來施政之分析基礎。
本論文透過兩個案例研究來說明不同模型的應用方式與差異所在。首先，針對環境因素納入成本效益的部分，藉由對森林資源之碳吸存功能的有效管理，以油桐籽作為生質柴油料源可有效減緩燃料價格上漲和溫室氣體排放問題，如再納入休耕轉作補貼與平地造林補貼作為配套措施之考量，將對總體與個體經濟產生正面效益。爰此，本案例利用部分均衡模型（投入產出模型）反映所有部門生產和分配使用全貌之特性，模擬桐油生質柴油產業帶動國內直接與間接經濟影響，並結合成本效益分析，評估以油桐籽作為能源作物料源的經濟可行性。分析結果顯示，首先，各料源（國產桐籽、進口桐籽、進口桐油）與進口生質柴油之成本比較，進口桐籽作為料源具成本競爭力，為最適方案。其次，於化石燃料混摻2%生質柴油，如加上休耕農地新植油桐樹之配套所帶來的正面碳吸存效益，國產桐籽與進口桐籽兩者方案淨效益皆為0.13億元。然而，當生質能源推廣目標提升為混摻5%生質柴油時，國產桐籽為料源之方案經濟效益增加為1.96億元，可提升我國再生能源供給之自主性，並大幅提高農業的綠色產值。
第二個案例針對流行病說明如何把健康因子納入經濟影響評估過程中。由於2009年爆發的新型流感（H1N1）新型流感屬於高感染率之疾病，短時間迅速蔓延全球各地，雖然目前之病毒仍屬弱毒性，仍發生重症與死亡案例，對於勞動生產力與民間消費產生衝擊。因此，評估時必須同時考慮疫情持續時間長短、感染範圍大小、及嚴重程度三個因子。爰此，本研究以台灣可計算一般均衡模型及2004年的投入產出表，分別模擬H1N1對我國總體經濟與各產業部門可能所造成的影響，並評估實施三項防疫策略（接種疫苗、學校關閉、施打抗病毒藥物）之成本效益，做為施政優先順序之選擇依據。模擬結果表示，H1N1爆發致使基礎情境之GDP和就業需求減少1.41％和1.72％；採取防疫措施將使GDP和勞動力負面衝擊程度分別減緩為-0.55％～-1.13％及-0.70％～-1.41％。至於接種疫苗政策之經濟淨效益估計可達974億元，為閉校政策與施打抗病毒藥物政策效益之2～3倍之多，故疫苗政策為最適策略。
This thesis applied a partial equilibrium model and a general equilibrium model to conduct two cost-benefit analyses (CBA), one for the bioenergy policy and the other for the public health policy in Taiwan, respectively. The results can serve as empirical references for government policy decision making.
In the first CBA study, the seeds of Tung trees (Vernicia fordii) is used as raw material for biodiesel to alleviate fuel price increases while reducing greenhouse gas emissions simultaneously. The positive benefit of macroeconomics and microeconomics was generated by taking into account government subsidies on forestation in fallow cropland as supporting measures. The Input-output model reflects the flow of overall production, distribution, and usage across different sectors of the economy. Consequently, this case study simulated the direct and indirect influences on the domestic economy driven by Tung biodiesel industry. Furthermore, employed cost-benefit analysis to assess the economic feasibility of using domestically produced and imported Tung seeds as energy crops. The results indicated that: firstly, when considering costs of raw materials, the importation of Tung seeds for use as energy crops is cost-competitive, and is the most suitable program. Secondly, the environmental benefits were considered under the B2 policy (blend of 2% biodiesel and 98% diesel fuel) and the positive carbon sequestration brought by the programs of planting new Tung trees on fallow crop land. The net benefits of the domestically-produced Tung and the imported Tung seed scenarios were equivalent ($13 million). However, when bioenergy goals were expanded to B5 policy (blend of 5% biodiesel and 95% diesel fuel), the economic benefits of using domestically-produced Tung seeds as fuel sources increased to $196 million. Subsequently, the autonomy of renewable energy supply and the green output of agriculture will be enhanced.
The second CBA described how to incorporate the health factors into the economic impact assessment. The highly contagious strain of H1N1 has been spread rapidly around the world. H1N1 with weak toxicity causes illness and deaths which damaged the labor productivity and private consumption. Consequently, durations (six months) and epidemiology are major factors of the simulations. The Taiwan computable general equilibrium model (TAIGEM) was used to estimate the overall and sectoral economic impact of the pandemic with a database compiled from the 2004 Input-Output Table. This study also evaluates the cost-benefit of implementing the three interventions (Vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug), respectively. The simulation results indicate that if the pandemic is confined within the 50% attack rate and 1.3% fatality rate, then the impact on real GDP and labor demand is around -1.41% and -1.72%. Once the attack and fatality rate declines to 26% and 0.6% by introducing interventions, the real GDP and labor demand would contract by -0.55~-1.13% and -0.70~-1.41%. In the cost-benefit analysis, the net benefit of vaccination is 2~3 times greater than the other policies, being the most efficient policy.
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