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題名：動態隨機一般均衡模型於中國特殊經濟結構的應用
作者：黃敬翔
作者(外文)：HUANG,CHING-HSIANG
校院名稱：國立臺北大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：胡春田
方振瑞
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2017
主題關鍵詞：動態隨機一般均衡模型；房地產市場；地方政府；城鄉二元經濟；貨幣政策；dynamic stochastic general equilibrium；real estate market；local government；dual economy；monetary policy
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本研究藉由架構具中國特質的動態隨機一般均衡模型，探討兩個有關中國經濟的議題。
第一個主題為探討中國房地產價格波動。在強調政府政策與房地產市場關聯性的前提下，研究房地產價格波動成因。研究結果表明本模型可以良好匹配主要總體變量數據特性。藉由房價變異數分解，房價波動的主要解釋因素為房屋生產技術衝擊、房屋需求衝擊、跨期偏好衝擊與貨幣政策衝擊。通過房價歷史拆解發現，房價上升因素於2001Q4-2002Q3為消費財生產技術衝擊和跨期偏好衝擊、2004Q1-2005Q3為跨期偏好衝擊和房屋需求衝擊、2009Q1-2010Q2為跨期偏好衝擊、2012Q3-2014Q1為房屋需求衝擊。此外，經由政策情境模擬分析，顯示收回土地使用權出售權利的土地政策不利於穩定房價波動。
第二個主題為中國貨幣政策效率評估。當貨幣政策必須顧及城鄉發展問題，人民銀行應如何調整貨幣政策？藉由架構中國城鄉二元經濟模型，並探討中國過去貨幣政策的效率性；再藉由模擬不同的貨幣政策法則，探討提升貨幣政策效率的改革方向。研究結果表明：中國過去的貨幣政策法則是有效率的；適度積極的貨幣政策法則能提升政策效率，也能降低城鄉區域經濟波動；在貨幣政策中納入對於不同區域採取差異性的因應，有助於同時達成穩定全國經濟波動與區域經濟波動的目標。
In this paper, we develop the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that incorporate the "Chinese characteristics" to study the two topics on the Chinese economy.
The first one, we construct a DSGE model that emphasizes the relevance of government policy to the real estate market to analyze how the economic shocks affect the fluctuations of real estate price in China. Our model replicates the data well. The main findings are as follows. First, housing productivity shocks, housing preference shocks, intertemporal preference shocks, and monetary policy shocks explain the variation in real estate price. Second, the major drivers of the rise in real estate price were non-housing productivity shocks and intertemporal preference shocks during 2004Q1-2002Q3, intertemporal preference shocks and housing preference shocks during 2004Q1-2005Q3, intertemporal preference shocks during 2009Q1-2010Q2, and housing preference shocks during 2012Q3-2014Q1. Third, the simulation results show that the adjustment of the land use rights sale policy is not conducive to stabilizing real estate price.
The second part of this article is to explore how should the People's Bank of China adjust her monetary policy when the issue of urban and rural development is taken into account. We construct a DSGE model with Chinese urban-rural traits and evaluate the efficiency of China's past monetary policy. We also investigate the direction of reform in view of enhancing the efficiency of monetary policy through the simulation of different monetary policy rules. The main results are as follows. First, China's past monetary policy rule is efficient. Second, moderately active monetary policy rules can improve the efficiency of policies and reduce the regional economic fluctuations. Third, incorporating responses to different regions in monetary policy is helpful to stabilize both national economic fluctuations and regional economic fluctuations.
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