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題名:兒童性侵害加害人接受社區處遇後之再犯率與再犯風險評估
作者:董道興
校院名稱:中央警察大學
系所名稱:犯罪防治研究所
指導教授:沈勝昂
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2017
主題關鍵詞:兒童性侵害社區處遇再犯風險評估child sexual abusecommunity treatmentrecidivismrisk assessment
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背景:
由於兒童性侵害犯罪發生率逐漸增加,已成為全世界受到關注的議題之一。然而兒
童性侵害加害人可能與一般族群有截然不同的特質。
目的:
本研究以回溯性世代模式為基礎,探討兒童性侵害加害人接受社區處遇後之再犯率
與再犯風險評估。第一部分主要包括:
一、估計兒童性侵害再犯率及控制干擾因子後之相對效果。
二、以群組化軌跡模式針對兒童性侵害加害人進行軌跡預測模式之建立。
三、建立兒童性侵害再犯風險評估模式。
第二部分則是利用隨機模式及後設分析進行:
一、以隨機模式估計兒童性侵害犯罪史之轉移率。
二、評估兒童性侵害加害人是否在社區處遇後,相較於未接受者能有效降低兒童性侵害
之再犯率。
方法:
本研究利用衛生福利部去名化去聯結之「家庭暴力、性侵害暨兒童少年保護資訊系
統」,資料收集時間為2009年1月1日至2014年12月31日止。針對兒童性侵害加害人,進
行基本流行病學分析、多階段性犯罪自然史、犯罪軌跡異質性估計、以及以後設分析探
討社區處遇介入後其再犯風險成效評估。
結果:
本研究主要發現包括:1.兒童性侵之1年、3年、5年、10年、及15年再犯比例為
17%、21%、24%、27%、及32%。在控制干擾因子後,靜態99對於兒童性侵害再犯為獨
立之危險因子;2.由多階段性犯罪自然史估計可知,初犯兒童性侵害至第三次犯罪,平
均停留時間為32.6年。由第一次兒童性侵至第二次性侵以及由第二次兒童性侵至第三次
性侵之年轉移機率分別為5.45%及6.29%;3. 透過群組化軌跡模式,可分析出三種兒童性
犯罪軌跡模式,包括高頻-侷限型(high-rate limited type)、低頻-持續型(low-rate persistent
4
type)、以及延遲爆發型(late-bloomers type),驗證了潛藏在犯罪生涯的異質性;4.雖然後
設分析證明社區處遇能降低性侵害加害人再犯兒童性侵害(勝算比=0.45、95%信賴區間
:0.27-0.74),然而相關實證研究的品質仍有待進一步探討。
結論:
目前論述與研究都認定性侵害犯罪是特定之犯罪態樣,然性侵害卻存在有不同之犯
罪類型,且不同性犯罪類型之犯罪成因、動機、行為歷程都有其對應之精神、心理病理
的基礎,兒童性侵害加害人的心理病理則較接近特殊的性偏差犯罪。日後需要更大型高
品質的長期追蹤研究進行相關驗證。
Background:
Child sexual abuse is not rare and has become a serious problem in most parts of the world.
However, child sex offenders, namely child molester, constitute a heterogeneous population of
individuals.
Purposes:
Based on the retrospective cohort study design, this study is conducted to explore the recidivism
and its risk assessment on community treatments among child sex offenders. The purposes of this
study included two parts. The first part is pertaining to descriptive results with respect to:
1.To estimate recidivism and then evaluate relative effect after adjustment for confounding factors.
2.To construct the trajectory predictive model for recidivism among child sex offenders by group-
based trajectory model approach.
3.To set up a risk assessment model of recidivism risk.
The second part is to apply a series of stochastic model and meta-analysis to:
1.To estimate the transition rates of criminal history in child sex offenders by a stochastic model.
2.To compare the recidivism rate between treatment and non-treatment and then explore whether
child sexual reoffending could be decreased effectively by community treatment or not.
Methods:
This study is conducted to evaluate recidivism and risk assessment of community treatment among
child sex offenders through “National Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault and Children-Juvenile
Protection Information System” between January, 1, 2009 and December 31, 2014. The basic
epidemiology, multi-stage crime natural course, heterogeneity in criminal trajectory, and efficacy
evaluation of community treatment for reducing recidivism of child sex offenders based on meta-
analysis are estimated.
Results:
There are several findings showed in the present study. Firstly, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and
15-year recidivism of child sex offender are estimated 17%, 21%, 24%, 27%, and 32%,
respectively. Static 99 is the most significant risk factor for the recidivism of child sexual abuse
after adjustment for confounding factors. Secondly, for estimates of crime natural course of child
6
sex offender, the average time of developing from first time child sex offender to third time child
sex offender is approximately 32.6 years. The application of parameters to the annual transition
probabilities from first time child sex offender to recidivism of child sex offender and from
recidivism of child sex offender to third time child sex offender are 5.45% and 6.29%, respectively.
Thirdly, this study identified a three-trajectory model for child sex offenders which has more
substantial meaning included “high-rate limited type”, “low-rate persistent type”, and “late
bloomers type”. These trajectories differed on recidivism and several key risk factor domains.
These findings indicate heterogeneity of child sex offenders would be highlighted when consider
the changes of criminal course. Finally, although the available best evidence does support an
association between community treatment and reducing recidivism effect based on the meta-
analysis (OR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.27-0.74). However, there is scanty low-quality evidence suggesting
community interventions are effective in preventing recidivism of child sexual abuse.
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