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題名:中美南海區域競合策略分析
作者:彭建雯
作者(外文):PONG, CHIEN-WEN
校院名稱:東海大學
系所名稱:政治學系
指導教授:宋興洲
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2018
主題關鍵詞:國家利益修昔底德陷阱競合關係國際體系中國崛起International InterestThe Thucydides TrapCo-opetition RelationInternationl SystemChina Rises
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  強權互動向來是國際關係的研究重點。美中這兩個當今世界最重要的國家,不論是從思想價值亦或地理位置而言,雙方即使做不成朋友,應也不致成為敵人,但雙方互動為何總是維持「鬥而不破」的隱約對抗意涵?其中主因是「中國崛起」這個影響現有國際格局與國際秩序的變數,雙方因政治結構、文化價值等內部根本差異所導致的互信不足,及隨著內部因素對國家利益的認知差異,皆強化美中基本處於「鬥」的格局。
  本論文假設美中在特定議題上因領導人認知及國際格局變化等內外因素變動,使其對國家利益認定的排序有所不同,亦使其在對應彼此的外交策略上可區分為衝突、競爭、不對抗和合作等4種作法;現階段對中國而言,南海問題是國家生存及重大利益,對美國而言,南海則為重大利益或主要利益;另一方面,兩國因核武的威懾使兩國不至於發動戰爭(修昔底德陷阱之假設),惟因彼此對國家利益定義與排序的不同,致美中關係在南海問題上將處於競爭/衝突或不對抗/衝突等局面。
 Superpower relations is a major research topic in the field of International Relations. In today’s world, U.S. and China are the world’s most important countries and in view of ideology and values, or even geographic location, even if both countries cannot be friends, they will not become enemies. However, why do the two countries always interact in a way that faintly interpret rivalry against each other?
 One of the reasons that influence the current global structure and international order variables is mainly china’s rising power. Basic differences in political structure, cultural values and etc. that both countries are consequently lack of confidence. Furthermore, as internal factors of increasingly different perspective in identity, it has escalated and intensified U.S.-China rivalry situation.
 This article makes the assumption that in consideration of changing variables that include leader’s perceptions and change in the international structure, and thus has allowed each country to rank differently the categories of national interest. The common types of foreign policy strategies are conflict, competition, no conflict, and cooperation. Currently, China views South China Sea as national survival and major interest. From the US perspective, South China Sea could bring them major interest or many interests, on the other hand both countries resist engaging in war due to the nuclear deterrence (Thucydides Trap), but because of different ranking orders of national interests, both countries find themselves trapped in competition/conflict or no conflict/conflict situations.
壹、中文部份

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三、論文
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蕭源興,1992,〈從地緣政治論中共南海戰略〉,碩士論文,政治作戰學院政治研究所。

四、文件:
中國南海研究院,2011,《2010年度南海地區形勢評估報告》。
中國南海研究院,2015,〈美國南海政策動向〉,《2013年度南海地區形勢評估報告》。

五、報紙:
李英明,2014.06.04,〈亞洲新安全觀須建立區域合作機制〉,《旺報》,版C2。
黃淑嫆,2013.12.18,〈美援9.5億 加強東南亞海事安全〉,《旺報》,綜合報導。
閻學通,2006.05.30,〈安全利益是中國首要利益〉,《環球時報》,版11。

六、網路
AIT,2010.6.3,〈美國國家安全戰略總綱〉,https://web-archive-2017.ait.org.tw/zh/officialtext-ot1016.html。
BBC中文網,2010.10.15,〈中國:拒絕無關國家介入南海爭議〉,http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/china/2010/10/101015_china_us_southsea。
BBC中文網,2010.7.3,〈中國向美國高官表示南中國海乃中國的核心利益〉, http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/world/2010/07/100703_china_sea_defence.shtm。
BBC中文網,2011.11.19,〈溫家寶在東亞峰會重申南海立場〉,http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2011/11/111119_wenjiabao_east_asia.shtml。
BBC中文網,2013.2.24,〈中國將在南沙海域展開常態化護漁〉,http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/china/2013/02/130224_china_spratly_islands.shtml。
BBC中文網,2014.3.12,〈習近平強調強軍與捍衛核心利益〉,http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/china/2014/03/10312_xi_jinping_core_interests。
BBC中文網,2014.5.14,〈菲律賓稱中國在南海爭議島礁填海造地〉,http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/05/140514_philippines_china_spratly.shtml。
BBC中文網,2016.7.13,〈南海仲裁案:各方對仲裁作出的最新回應〉,http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2016/07/160713_south_china_sea_ruling_latest_reax。
ETtoday新聞雲,2016.7.12,〈4國搶美濟島、中國搶先填海一分鐘搞懂「南沙七島」〉,https://www.ettoday.net/news/20160712/730886.htm。
Global Research,2014.09.26,〈高盛高華預計:中國全球經濟地位繼續上升〉,http://researchglobal.wordpress.com/2014/09/26/。
World Economy,2018,〈2017年世界GDP排名〉,http://www.8pu.com/gdp/ranking_2017.html.。
人民網,2012.06.21,〈国务院批准设立地级三沙市民政部新闻发言人答问〉,http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/18264869.html.。
人民網,2014.10.8,〈當代中國南海政策的演變〉,http://history.people.com.cn/BIG5/n/2014/1008/c372329-25790497.html。
人民網,2014.5.11,〈中國空軍在三沙市成立南海環境裝備試驗基地〉,http://military.people.com.cn/BIG5/n/2014/0511/c1011-25001319.html。
人民網-國際頻道,2012.12.26,〈社科院发布《亚太蓝皮书》 学者总结2014亚太形势〉,http://world.people.com.cn/n/2012/1226/c1002-20025104.html。
大公報,1999.6.16,〈國家利益與美中關係〉,http://blog.boxun.com/sixiang/liyi.html。
大紀元,2016.07.13,〈為何各國都要爭?南海爭端歷史回顧〉,http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/16/7/12/n8093301.htm.。
中央通訊社,2013.12.14,〈險釀事故傳陸艦南海攔截美艦〉,http://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201312140009-1.aspx。
中時電子報,2015.10.27,〈美軍證實神盾艦進出中方島礁12浬海域〉,http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20151027003555-260401。
中時電子報,2015.11.19,〈南海爭議 APEC淪美中角力場〉,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20151119000479-260102。
中時電子報,2015.6.8,〈陸拚海上絲路南海戰略降溫〉,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20150608000442-260108。
中時電子報,2016.0.11,〈3500億搏30兆 陸南海瘋狂造島〉,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20160111000658-260301。
中時電子報,2017.12.25,〈美濟礁造島神速,已成南海最大島〉,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171225000574-260108。
中國社會科學網,2016.2.29,〈解讀歐巴馬政府的南海政策〉,https://read01.com/J00EPd.html#.WxF1Uu6FOpo。
中國軍網,2015.12.18,〈海軍三大艦隊南海集結展開實兵對抗演練〉,http://www.81.cn/jmywyl/2015-12/18/content_6821828.htm。
中國評論通訊社,2013.12.26,〈中國核心利益是制定國家戰略的基礎〉,http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1028/0/1/8/102801825_2.html?coluid=137&kindid=8190&docid=102801825&mdate=1226010311。
中國評論新聞網,2011.6.4,〈台媒:中國大陸南海維權升級牽動亞太情勢〉,http://hk.crntt.com/crn-webapp/doc/docDetailCreate.jsp?coluid=4&kindid=16&docid=101720600&mdate=0604103526。
中國新聞網,2013.7.18,〈三沙市永興綜合碼頭一期交付使用〉,http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2013/07-18/5059451.shtml。
中華人民共和國中央人民政府網站,2011.1.28,〈外交部長楊潔篪會見美國常務副國務卿斯坦伯格〉,http://big5.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/gzdt/2011-01/28/content_1794759.htm。
中華人民共和國外交部,2002.11.4,〈南海各方行為宣言〉,http://www.mfa.gov.cn/nanhai/chn/zcfg/t4553.htm。
中華民國內政部,《海南特別行政長官公署組織條例》,http://glrs.moi.gov.tw/LawContentDetails.aspx?id=FL025442&KeyWordHL=&StyleType=1。
中華民國外交部,2013.11,〈開羅宣言的國際法意義〉,https://www.mofa.gov.tw/Upload/WebArchive/1029/8eda04a3-0690-4dc3-8662-93a35c9731a7.PDF。
中華民國經濟部全球資訊網,〈當前亞太區域經濟整合概況與初步評析〉,https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/otn/content/wHandMenuFile.ashx?menu_id=7480。
中新網,2009.7.29,〈首轮中美经济对话:除上月球外主要问题均已谈及〉,http://www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2009/07-29/1794984.shtml。
早報,2011.6.9,〈旺報社評:兩岸應宣示維護南海固有疆域〉,https://www.zaobao.com.sg/special/report/politic/southchinasea/story20110609-108652。
江今葉,2017.12.20,〈美中未來 美學者:競爭多於合作〉,http://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/201712200045-1.aspx。
自由時報,2010.07.05,〈中國嗆美︰南海是領土核心利益〉,http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/408591。
自由時報,2015.7.2,〈「香格里拉會議」聚焦南海爭端〉,http://talk.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/1364367。
自由時報,2016.7.13,〈劃設南海防空識別區?中國外交部:安全受威脅就有權劃設〉,http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/1761339。
何偉的部落格,2016.7.24,〈2016年中國南海填海造島最新現況太平島岌岌可危〉,http://blog.udn.com/H101094880/67461117。
青年日報,2016.11.18,〈美國亞太「再平衡」戰略盤整與未來展望〉,https://www.ydn.com.tw/News/165613。
建程網,2013.5.23,〈海南急尋大型船舶珠海-三沙市運石料填海建港口〉,http://jc85.com/buy/show-118926.html。
美國之音,2017.2.10,〈美國情報委員會報告:美國主導的時代將結束〉,https://www.voacantonese.com/a/nic-predicts-american-20170208/3718101.html。
美國之音,2017.2.10,〈美國情報委員會報告〉,https://www.voacantonese.com/a/nic-predicts-american-20170208/3718101.html。
風傳媒,2016.9.12,〈南海風雲:中俄最大規模海上軍演「海上聯合2016」廣東外海登場〉,http://www.storm.mg/article/165244。
張國威,2014.7.18,〈2014全球軍力,陸第3,臺排17〉,http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20140718001044-260309。
莫小亮、王棟、吳永華,2015.12.18,〈海軍三大艦隊南海集結展開實兵對抗演練〉,http://www.81.cn/jmywyl/2015-12/18/content_6821828.htm。
陳明明,1999.6.16,〈國家利益與美中關係〉, http://blog.boxun.com/sixiang/liyi.html。
陳剛,2012,〈美國重返亞太軍事虛經濟實〉, http://opinion.huanqiu.com/1152/2012-08/2983427.html。
博訊新聞網,2011.9.11,〈評中國首部《和平發展白皮書》及其主旨 6項核心利益〉,http://www.boxun.com/news/gb/pubvp/2011/09/201109110001.shtml。
開放網,2015.10.7,〈TPP俱樂部:中國禁止入內〉,http://www.open.com.hk/content.php?id=2554#.WxWnoEiFNPY。
黃啟霖,2009.11.14,〈太平洋總統歐巴馬東京演說 向亞洲釋出善意〉,http://news.rti.org.tw/index_MailFW.aspx?nid=223273。
搜狐網,2018.1.2,〈中美经济的真实差距,两国角力,岂在沙场〉,http://www.sohu.com/a/214103092_99967267。
新浪新聞中心,2013.10.16,〈美國的核心利益溯源〉,http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2013-10-16/100528447659.shtml。
新華網,2011.10.12,〈中越簽署指導兩國解決海上問題基本原則協議〉,http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/15865969.html。
新華網,2012.11.21,〈美媒:亞洲啟動 RCEP 或令 TPP 黯然失色〉,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2012-11/21/c_123979481.htm。
新華網,2012.11.23,〈梅新育:RCEP談判利好亞太未來〉,http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2012-11/23/c_123991656.htm。
新華網,2016.05.12,〈南海局勢及南沙群島爭議:歷史回顧與現實思考〉,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2016-05/12/c_128977813.htm。
新華網,2016.7.12,〈中國外長王毅就所謂南海仲裁庭裁決結果發表談話〉,http://www.xinhuanet.com/2016-07/12/c_1119207875.htm。
新頭殼,2009.9.30,〈楊潔篪:台、藏、疆問題攸關中國核心利益〉,https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2009-09-30/613。
經濟日報,2017.9.29,〈劉延東紡美:探討美中未來50年〉,https://money.udn.com/money/story/5603/2729208。
鉅亨網,2012.5.4,〈胡錦濤:中美拓新型大國關係相互尊重合作共贏〉,https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/2902641。
鉅亨網,2015.11.18,〈美中APEC再交鋒歐巴馬登鑑挺菲砸3億美元利誘東南亞盟友〉,https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/392597。
鉅亨網,2015.9.25,〈習近平指美中利益大於分歧,合作是主流〉,https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/227882。
僑報網,2016.7.14,〈用「至高」表達國家利益罕見常用「至關重要」〉,https://read01.com/zh-tw/Lx5xaj.html#.Ww-hdu6FOpo。
趙瑋,2014.5.26,〈南海無關美國核心利益 南海政策更關心再平衡〉,《亞太日報》,http://www.apdnews.com/china/waimeiguancha/2014/0526/39053.shtml。
趙瑋,2014.05.26,〈南海無關美國核心利益 南海政策更關心再平衡〉,http://www.apdnews.com/china/waimeiguancha/2014/0526/39053.shtml。
鳳凰網,2010.7.3,〈外媒:中國首次將南海列入核心利益〉,http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/detail_2010_07/03/1713282_0.shtml。
劉常勇,2008.8.15〈賽局理論中的雙贏策略〉,http://cm.nsysu.edu.tw/~cyliu/paper/paper10.html。
駐新加坡台北代表處經濟組,〈東協10國加亞洲6國原則同意成立泛亞洲自由貿易區〉,http://eweb.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=46&pid=393557。
閻學通,2008.3.4,〈中國著名學者:安全利益是中國首要國家利益〉,《新華網》,http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2008-03/24/content_7845932.htm.。
總統府全球資訊網,影音頻道,http://www.president.gov.tw。
蘋果日報,2012.6.3,〈返亞太「玩真的」美軍6成戰艦將部署太平洋〉,https://tw.appledaily.com/international/daily/20120603/34273743。

貳、西文部分

(Ⅰ)Books
Acharya, Amitav, 2009, Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEANand the Problem of Regional Order. New York: Routledge Press.
Art, Robert J., 2003, A Grand Strategy for America. NY: Cornell University Press.
Babbie, Earl R., 2008a, The Practice of Social Research.11th. Belmont, CA: Thomson/Wadsworth.
Baldwin, David A., 1993, Neorealism and Ne-liberalism: the Contemporary Debate. N.Y: Columbia University Press.
Brecher, Michael, 1963, The New States of Asia: A Political Analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.
Brooks, Stephen G., and William C. Wohlforth, 2008, World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy. NJ: Princeton University Press.
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 1997, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books.
Bull, Hedley, 1969, ”Society and Anarchy in International Relations,” in Hebert Butterfield and Martin Wight, eds., Diplomatic Investigation: Essays in the Theory of International Relations. UK: Cambridge University Press.
________, 1977, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics. New York: Columbia Unerversity Press.
________, 1995, The Anarchical Society. London: Macmillan.
Burton, John W., 1968, Systems, States, Diplomacy and Rules. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Buzan, Barry, Charles Jones and Richard Little, 1993, The Logic of Anarchy: Neorealism to Structural Realism. New York: Columbia University Press.
Charles, Kindleberger, 1998, The World in Depression: 1929~1939. Berkeley: The Conquest, New York: Columbia University.
Cohen, Saul Betnard, 2009, Geopolitics:The Geography of International Relations. MD:Rowman & Littlefield.
Dhashi, Hideo, 2005, “China’s Regional Trade and Investment Profile,” in David Shambaugh ed., Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics, pp. 71-95, Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA: University of California Press.
Finnemore, Martha, 1996, National Interest in International Society. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
Friedberg, Aaron L., 1993, The Weary Titan: Britian and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895~1905. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Gilpin, Robert, 1981, War and Change in World Politics. N.Y.: Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
________, 1989, “The Theory of Hegemonic War”, in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, pp.15-38, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Goldstein, Joshua S., and Jon C. Pevehouse, 2010, International Relations: 2010-2011 Update (ed. 9). N.Y.: Longman.
Gompert, David C., 2013, The Future of Sea Power in the Western Pacific. California: Rand.
Green, Michael J., and Bates Gill, 2009, “Unbundling Asia’s New Multilateralism”, in Michael J. Green and Bates Gill eds., Asia’s New Multilateralism: Cooperation, Competition, and the Search for Community,pp.1-29, New York: Columbia University Press.
Grieco, Joseph M., 1997, "Realist International Theory and the Study of World Politics", in Michael W. Doyle and G. John Ikenberry, eds., New Thinking in International Relations Theory, pp.163-202, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press.
Griffiths, Martin, 1992, Realism, Idealism and International Politics, London; New York: Routledge.
________, 1999, Fifty Key Thinkers in International Relations. New York: Routledge.
________, 2007, International Relations Theory for the Twenty-First Century, London; New York: Routledge.
Hoffmann, Stanley, 1963, ”Discord in Community: The North Atlantic Area as a Partial International System,” in Francis O. Wilcox and H. Field Haviland, Jr.,eds., The Atlantic Community: Progress and Prospects, pp.3-31, New York: Praeger.
Holsti, K.J., 2003, “Power, Capability, and Influence in International Politics,” in Charles W, Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R.Wittkopf, eds., The Global Agenda:Issue and Perspectives, pp.13-25, Peking: Peking University Press.
Ikenberry, G. John, 2001, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
________, 2002, America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power. NY: Cornell University Press.
Jennings, Robert, and Arthur Watts, 2008, Oppenheim's International Law. New York: Oxford University Press.
Jervis, Robert, 1978, “Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma” in Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, eds., International Politics(2010) , pp. 93- 113, N.Y: Longman.
Kang, David C., 2007, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia. New York: Columbia University Press.
Kegley, Charles W. Jr., and Eugene R. Wittkopf, 1996, American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Process. New York: St. Martin's Press.
Keohane, O. Robert, 1984, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. NJ: Princeton University Press.
________, 1989, International Institutions and State Power. Boulder: Westview.
Keohane, O. Robert, and Joseph S. Nye, 1989, Power and Interdependence: World Politicals in Transition, 2nd. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman and Company.
Kratochwill, Freidrich, 1989, Rules, Norms and Decisions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kugler, Jacek, and Douglas Lemke, eds. , 1996, Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of the War Ledger. Ann Arbors: the University of Michigan Press.
Little, Richard, 1985, ”The Systems Approach,” in Steven Smith, ed., International Relations: British and American Perspectives. Oxford, England: Basil Blackwell.
Mackinder, Halford J., 1942, Democratic Ideals and Reality. London: National Defense University Press.
Mahan, Alfred Thayer, 1890, The Influence of Sea Power upon History,1660-1783. Boston: Little,Brown, and Company.
________, 1900, The Problem of Asia and Its Effect upon International Politics. London: Sampson Low.
Mearsheimer,John J., 2001, “Anarchy and the struggle for Power”, in Robert J.Art and Robert Jervis, eds., International Politics, pp. 59- 69, N.Y: Longman.
________, 2001, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y.: W. W. North & Company.
Modelski, George, 1961, ”Agrar and Industria: Two Models of the International System,”in Klaus Knorr and Sidney Verba, eds., The International System: Theoretical Essays. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Morgenthau, Hans J., 1962, The Impasse of American Foreign Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
________, 1985, “Six Principle of Political Realism,” in Robert J.Art and Robert Jervis, eds., International Politics(2010), pp. 16- 23, N.Y: Longman.
Neuman, W. Lawrence, 2003, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.
Neumann, John Von, and Oskar Morgenstern, 2004, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
Nye Jr., Joseph S., 2002, The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone. New York: Oxford University Press.
Onuf, Nicholas, 1989, World of Our Making. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
Organski, A.F.K., 1958, World Politics. New York: Knopf.
Organski, A.F.K., and Jacek Kugler, 1981, The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago
Parker, Geoffrey, 1998, Geopolitics:Past, Present and Future. London:Croom Helm.
Paul, T. V., 2004, “Introduction: The Enduring Axioms of Balance of Power Theory and Their Contemporary Relevance”, in T. V. Paul, James J. Wirtz, and Michel Fortmann eds., Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century. CA: Stanford University Press.
Peter Katzenstein, ed., 1996, The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics. N.Y.: Columbia University Press.
Polelle, R. Mark, 1999, Raising Cartographic Consciousness:The Social and Foreign Policy Vision of Geopolitics in the Twentieth Century. Md.: Lexington Books Press.
Rotberg, Robert I., Theodore K. Rabb, 1989, The Origin and Prevention of Major War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Rubin, Allen, and Earl R. Babbie, 2009, Research Methods for Social Work (ed. 7). Stamford, CT: Cengage Learning.
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