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題名：債務行為對經濟體系的影響
作者：寗家洋
作者(外文)：NING, CHIA-YANG
校院名稱：國立臺北大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：鍾建屏
陳孝琪
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2019
主題關鍵詞：內生成長；實質景氣循環；均衡不確定性；資訊不對稱；債務法則；Endogenous growth；Real business cycle；Indeterminacy；Asymmetric information；Debt Rules
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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自2007年美國發生次貸危機進而引起全球金融風暴至今，在這段期間中不論是個人或是政府的借貸行為、模式及管道皆有所轉變，因此本論文選定以債務行為作為研究標的，分別探討個人與政府債務行為的改變，如何影響總體經濟體系長期的經濟成長與短期的景氣波動。
除了緒論外，本文第二章探討個人借貸行為的改變對經濟體系長期經濟成長的影響，由於傳統金融中介機構對於個人資金貸放的嚴格限制，加上網際網路的快速普及以及金融科技的日新月異，促成了P2P網路借貸平台的出現，提供民眾另一項資金借貸的管道。由於P2P借貸平台可降低借貸雙方間資訊不對稱的程度，進而減少資金供給者所需面對的信用風險，因此我們將此特性引入一小型開放經濟體系之貨幣內生成長模型中。另外，本章假設貨幣當局採行爬行釘住匯率制度，在該制度下，政府可藉由調整名目匯率貶值率來控制通貨膨脹率，進而維持國內經濟的穩定。在上述設定下，本章探討信用資訊不對稱程度與匯率貶值率變動對實質債務及體系經濟成長率之影響，結果發現，當信用資訊不對稱程度與匯率貶值率愈低，將提高長期淨外債-資本比，使得靜止均衡下的經常帳-資本比會惡化，但會提升本國資本的市場價值，進而促進經濟成長。
第三章探討採行不同政府債務法則對景氣波動的影響。在全球金融危機爆發後，各國政府為振興經濟紛紛開始採行擴張性的財政政策，並透過發行公債來融通政府支出，使債務占GDP的比例不斷攀升，傳統上限制債務-產出比上限的固定赤字法則已漸不適用，故許多學者建議與鼓勵各國政府採行債券黃金法則。在現行探討債務法則的文獻中，主要聚焦於經濟成長與社會福利的議題，鮮少有研究債務法則對於景氣循環波動的影響。因此在本章中，我們探討政府分別採取固定赤字法則與債務黃金法則下，如何影響短期的景氣波動。研究結果發現，當政府採行固定赤字法則時，體系中存在一明確的債務-產出比的上限，若舉債超過此上限時，經濟體系便會從原先穩定的狀態轉變成為波動的情況；當政府採行債券黃金法則時，若實質資本份額小於政府支出生產外部性時，經濟體系便有可能產生波動，即此條件為必要條件但並不充分。
The individual and governmental lending behaviors, modes and channels have changed since the subprime mortgage crisis happened in the US from 2007, resulting in global financial crises. Therefore, we set out the debt behavior as the target of the research to separately discuss the changes in both personal and governmental debt behaviors and how to influence long-term economic growth and short-term economic fluctuations in the overall economy.
In addition to the introduction, the second chapter of the research explores the impacts on the changes of the individual lending behaviors on the long-term economic growth of the economic system. Due to strict restrictions on the personal financial lending/borrowing by traditional financial intermediaries, the rapid spread of the Internet access and the progress of financial technology, the birth of P2P, online lending platform, provides another financial lending channel for people. Since the P2P lending platform can reduce the degree of information asymmetry between the borrowers and the lenders, and thus reduce the credit risk that the fund provider needs to face, we introduce this feature into the monetary models of endogenous growth of a small open economy system. Besides, the chapter 2 assumes the monetary authorities adopt the crawling peg. The government can control the inflation rate by adjusting the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate under the system to maintain the stability of the domestic economy. According to the settings mentioned above, it is discussed the influences of the degrees of credit information asymmetry and the changes of the devaluation rate of the exchange rate on substantial debts and economic growth rates in this chapter. The result represents when the degrees of credit information asymmetry and the devaluation rate of the exchange rate are lower, the ratio of long-term net external debts to capital will be increased, which makes the still, balanced ratio of current accounts to capital deteriorates. However, the market value will be enhanced to promote the growth of economy.
The third chapter analyzes the influences of economic fluctuations by taking different government debt laws. After the global financial crises broke out, governments started to adopt expansionary fiscal policies to revitalize the economy and financed government expenditures through issuing government bonds, resulting in the proportion of GDP in debts rising continuously. The traditional maximum limitations of debts to output ratio in Fixed Deficit Regime has been less applicable, so many scholars suggested and encouraged governments adopt Golden Rule of Public Finance. In the current literature on debt laws, the topic mainly focuses on the growth of economy and social welfare, and there is little research on the effects on the debt laws to fluctuations of economic cycles. As a result, we discuss how the governments influence short-term economic fluctuations by taking the Fixed Deficit Regime and the Golden Rule of Public Finance separately in this chapter. The results represent that the system exists a clear maximum of debt-to-output ratio when the government takes Fixed Deficit Regime. The economic system will change from the original stable state to the volatile situation if the debt exceeds the ceiling. Assuming the real capital share is less than the externality of government expenditure production, the economic system may have fluctuations as the government takes the Golden Rule of Public Finance. That is, this condition is necessary but insufficient.
王文程 (2010)，〈訊息不對稱、最適稅率與經濟成長〉，國立臺北大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
呂嘉穎、徐正戎 (2017)，〈從法制面層面分析P2P網路借貸在中國大陸造成之影響—兼論台灣之展望與衝擊〉，《財經論文叢刊》，26，頁55-69。new window
李慕真 (2017)，〈評估金融科技環境下P2P網路借貸最適風險決策模式〉，東吳大學會計學系碩士論文。
林雅燕 (2014)，〈新興募資方式—群眾募資行為之初探〉，《經濟研究年刊》，14，頁152-172。new window
施乃琪 (2011)，〈債券黃金法則與內生成長：小型開放經濟勞動內生化的分析〉，天主教輔仁大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
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張偉煜 (2017)，〈網路借貸平台監管規範之研究〉，南臺科技大學財經法律研究所碩士論文。
劉書婷 (2015)，〈國外互聯網P2P模式優勢分析，基於Lending Club研究〉，《財經界》，第24期。
蕭明福 (2000)，〈貨幣與內生成長爬行釘住匯率與浮動匯率的分析〉，國立政治大學經濟學系博士論文。new window
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