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題名:台灣產業創新與經濟成長關係之實證研究
作者:謝明振
作者(外文):HSIEH,MING-CHING
校院名稱:東方設計大學
系所名稱:文化創意設計研究所
指導教授:吳淑明
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:產業創新共整合經濟成長凱因斯模型Industry InnovationR&D Economic GrowthCo-integrationincome-expenditure model
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在現代經濟社會中,創新活動的成功與否是影響經濟成長的重要因素之一。2018年,在「世界經濟論壇」(WEF)全球競爭力排名中,台灣在「創新能力」項目中名列全球第四,獲評分數遠高於其他國家,與德國、美國、瑞士等國齊名,被譽為「超級創新國」(Super innovators)。創意是個人或團體創造新的有用想法而成為創新,創新能促進經濟成長是中、外學者專家公認的議題,但是創新所投入的研究人才與研發經費能促進多少經濟成長,其影響幅度為何則少有論述,有鑑於此,本研究企圖對產業創新與經濟成長關係進一步研究,並加以驗證。
本研究根據「創新理論」、「新經濟成長理論」、「創造性破壞理論」,以及創新與經濟成長的關聯性,建構本研究的理論架構,再進一步加以實證分析,所採用的資料為台灣1999-2015年的經濟成長、研發費用等樣本,分析研發與經濟成長之共整合與因果關係,以「凱因斯模型」(Income-expenditure model)為基礎利用「迴歸分析」(Regression Analysis)、「共整合檢定」(Cointegration tests)等,分析R&D支出如何影響經濟成長,以及研究發展對經濟成長之影響程度等;再加入「柯布-道格拉斯生產函數」(Cobb-Douglas production function)之假設,以瞭解研發費用與研發人才對經濟成長之關聯性,進行推導並獲得解決。實證結果顯示,在研發費用中,民間機構的投入對經濟成長具有高度的相關性,民間機構研發人才的投入對於經濟成長的影響最大,且民間研發人才的投入對於經濟成長的影響遠高於其他變數。其次根據「共整合檢定」之結果顯示,研發費用的變動能夠顯著影響經濟成長,但經濟成長的變動無法影響研發費用,此結果顯示研究發展對於經濟成長的重要,亦是政府推動創新政策所必須考量的重要因素。
A success of innovation activities is an important factor to affect economic growth in the modern society. In this paper, we will study how innovation affects the economic growth in Taiwan. In the innovation of the Global Competitiveness Report in 2018, the World Economic Forum (WEF) ranks Taiwan as a super innovator equivalent to Germany, USA and Switzerland. Though experts recognize that innovation on economic growth encouragement is a public issue, they do not study how economic growth is affected by sufficient researchers and R&D’s funds, which is the main theme in this research.
According to the theories of Innovation, New Economic Growth, Creative Destruction, as well as the relationship between innovation and economy growth on the construction of the theoretical framework can be used to make an empirical analysis in this study. Specifically, this study first uses data such as the economic growth, R&D costs or expenditures, and other related data from 1999 to 2015. Then it analyzes the co-integration and causality between the R&D and economic growth in Taiwan. The methodology in this study adopts the “regression analysis” and “co-integration verification” to analyze how the R&D expenditure affects economic growth, and the extent to which development affects economic growth based on the “Keynes Model”. In fact, it also adds the assumption variable of the Cobb-Douglas production function to understand the relationship among the R&D costs, R&D talent and the Economic Growth in Taiwan.
The empirical results show that the input of R&D cost has a highly correlation with economic growth in the private institutions. In addition, the investment on the R&D talents of private institutions has the greatest impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the impact of private R&D talents on economic growth is much higher than that of other variables. According to the results of co-integration verification, the change of R&D cost can affect economic growth significantly, but the change of economic growth cannot affect the R&D cost simultaneously, showing the importance of the R&D to economic growth. In other words, the enterprises through R&D activities can not only increase innovation activities but also enhance the competitiveness of enterprises themselves, stimulating to the economic growth in a country.
In short, the Government should encourage enterprises to invest a lot of human capital in the R&D by a suitable subsidy policy in order to improve the incentive for innovation, so that enterprises increase their willingness to invest in innovation activities, enhancing national competitiveness and improving living standards.
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