臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：台灣經驗保險需求，金融發展與經濟成長的關係
作者：張永旺
作者(外文)：Yung-Wang Chang
校院名稱：國立高雄第一科技大學
系所名稱：管理研究所
指導教授：陳振遠
洪敏三
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2008
主題關鍵詞：保險需求；金融發展；經濟成長；Granger因果關係；共整合；Cointegration；Insurance demand；Financial development；Economic growth；Granger causality
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:66
本研究係探討台灣自1956至2006年間保險需求與經濟成長的動態關係，使用多變數VAR (vector autoregressive) 模型，驗證供給領導(supply-leading)或需求跟隨(demand-following)的假設(hypotheses)。
首先以縮簡式(reduced-form)的雙變數VAR模型，實證發現：台灣的產險需求與經濟成長，有共整合關係。長期而言，經濟成長會導致產險需求的增加，支持需求跟隨的假設。然而，壽險需求與經濟成長並沒有共整合關係，壽險需求僅於短期會影響經濟成長。
此外，本研究引申Hussels, Ward, and Zurbruegg (2005) 提出的觀念，認為保險需求、金融發展與經濟成長之間，可能有動態的連結關係，再以參變數VAR模型，實證發現：經濟成長於短期與長期均會影響保險需求，可是金融發展只於長期會影響保險需求。另外，基於向量誤差修正模型(vector error-correction model, VECM)的Granger因果關係檢定，建議：金融發展會導致經濟成長；經濟成長又會導致保險需求的增加。前者，支持供給領導的假設；後者，支持需求跟隨的假設。換言之，金融發展可以促進經濟成長，此發現顯示，近年來台灣的金融發展，對我國經濟成長的重要性。然而，台灣的保險消費，並不會促進經濟成長。
故本研究的管理意涵，為政府決策者應將有限的國家資源，儘量配置於可刺激經濟成長的其他部門，而非保險部門。同時，保險業者也要了解所得彈性對保險需求的影響，以為保險經營的參考。
This study examines the dynamic relationship between insurance demand and economic growth in Taiwan from 1956 through 2006. Using a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the competing hypotheses of demand-following versus supply-leading are empirically tested.
Utilizing a reduced-form bivariate VAR model, test results indicate that non-life insurance demand and economic growth are cointegrated. Furthermore, in the long run, economic growth was found to lead to non-life insurance expansion. This result supports the demand-following hypothesis for Taiwan. However, life insurance demand and economic growth were not found to be cointegrated. Life insurance demand did impact economic growth, but only in the short run.
Moreover, three-variable VAR models were applied to extend the conceptual link among insurance demand, financial development, and economic growth, as proposed by Hussels et al. (2005). These results reveal that economic growth affects insurance demand, both in the long run and in the short run. Financial development, on the other hand, was found to primarily cause variations in insurance demand, but only in the long run. In addition, the results from the Granger causality test, based on the vector error-correction model (VECM), suggest a unidirectional causality. This causality runs from financial development to economic growth, which supports “the supply-leading hypothesis”. In contrast, the results also suggest that economic growth leads to increases in insurance demand, which supports “the demand-following hypothesis”. Thus, financial development does promote real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. These findings highlight the importance of financial development in Taiwan’s recent economic growth. However, it was determined that insurance spending does not promote economic growth.
This study has two significant managerial implications. Firstly, these results can help the Taiwan government prioritize the allocation of resources that may stimulate national economic growth. Secondly, knowledge of the income elasticity of demand for insurance can assist insurance companies with insurance product consumption estimation.
1.Beck, T. and Webb, I., 2003, “Economic Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries”, World Bank Economic Review, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 51-88.
2.Beck, T., Levine, R. and Loayza, N., 2000, “Finance and the Sources of Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 58, no. 1-2, pp. 261-300.
3.Beenstock, M., Dickinson, G. and Khajuria, S., 1986, “The Determination of Life Premiums: An International Cross-Section Analysis 1970-1981”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 261-270.
4.Beenstock, M., Dickinson, G. and Khajuria, S., 1988, “The Relationship between Property-Liability Insurance Premiums and Income: An International Analysis”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 259-272.
5.Browne, M. J. and Kim, K., 1993, `”An International Analysis of Life Insurance Demand”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 60, no. 4, pp. 616-634.
6.Browne, M.J, Chung, J. and Frees, E.W., 2000, “International Property - Liability Insurance Consumption”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 67, no. 1, pp. 73-90.
7.Chang, T. and Caudill, S. B., 2005, “Financial development and economic growth: the case of Taiwan”, Applied Economics, vol. 37, pp. 1329-1335
8.Darrat, A. F., 1999, “Are financial deepening and economic growth causally related? Another look at the evidence”, International Economic Journal, vol. 13, no. 3, pp.19-35.
9.Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A., 1981, “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, vol. 49, no. 4, pp. 1057-1071.
10.Enders, W., 2003, Applied Time Series Econometrics, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
11.Engle, R. and Granger, C. W., 1987, “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 251-276.
12.Enz, R., 2000, “The S-Curve Relation Between Per-Capita Income and Insurance Penetration”, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 396-406.
13.Esho, N., Kirievsky, A., Ward, D. and Zurbruegg, R., 2004, “Law and the Determinants of Property-Casualty Insurance”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 71, no. 2, pp. 265-283.
14.Fortune, P., 1973, “A Theory of Optimal Life Insurance: Development and Tests”, Journal of Finance, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 587-600.
15.Garven, J. R. and MacMinn, R. D., 1993, “The Underinvestment Problem, Bond Covenants, and Insurance”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 60, no. 4, pp. 635-646.
16.Ghartey, E. E., 1993, “Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan and the US”, Applied Economics, vol. 25, no. 9, pp. 1145-1152.
17.Gollier, C., 2000, “Optimal Insurance Design: What can We do with and without Expected Utility”, Handbook of Insurance (Edited by Georges Dionne), Kluwer Academic Press, Boston.
18.Granger, C. W. J., 1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 424-438.
19.Granger, C.W.J., 1981, “Some Properties of Time Series Data and their Use in Econometric Model Specification”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 121-130.
20.Granger, C.W.J., 1988, “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 39, no. 1-2, pp. 199-211.
21.Hamilton, J.D., 1994, Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
22.Hussels S., Ward D. and Zurbruegg R., 2005, “Stimulating the Demand for Insurance”, Risk Management and Insurance Review, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 257-278.
23.Jin, J. C., 1995, “Export-led Growth and Four Little Dragons”, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 203-215.
24.Johansen S., 1991, “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, vol. 59, no. 6, pp. 1551-1580.
25.Johansen, S. and Juselius, K., 1990, “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 52, no. 2, pp. 169-209.
26.Lewis, F. D., 1989, “Dependants and the Demand for Life Insurance”, American Economic Review, vol. 79, no. 3, pp. 452-467.
27.Levine, R., Loayza, N. and Beck, T., 2000, “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 31-77.
28.Li, D., Moshirian, F., Nguyen, P. and Wee, T., 2007, “The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 74, no. 3, pp. 637-652.
29.Luintel, K. B. and Khan, M., 1999, “A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR”, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 381-405.
30.Ma, Y. L. and Pope, N., 2003, “Determinants of International Insurers Participation in Foreign Non-Life Markets”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 70, no. 2, pp. 235-248.
31.MacDonald, R. and Kearney, C. 1987, “On the Specification of Granger Causality Tests Using the Cointegration Methodology”, Economics Letter, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 149-153.
32.MacKinnon, J. G., 1991, “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Long-Run Econometric Relationships”, Readings in Cointegration (Edited by R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger), Oxford Press, New York.
33.MacKinnon, J. G., 1996, “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Test”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 601-618.
34.Mackinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A. and Michelis, L., 1999, “Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests For Cointegration”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 563-577.
35.MacMinn, R. D., 1987, “Insurance and Corporate Risk Management”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 54, no. 4, pp. 658-677.
36.MacMinn, R. D. and Han, L.M., 1990, “Limited Liability, Corporate Value and the Demand for Liability Insurance”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 57, no. 4, pp. 581-607.
37.Marco A., 2006, “Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross-Country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries”, Policy Research Working Paper, no. 4098, World Bank.
38.Mossin, J., 1968, “Aspects of Rational insurance Purchasing”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 76, no. 4, pp. 553-568.
39.Outreville, F. J., 1990a, “The Relationship between Insurance, Financial Development and Market Structure in Developing Countries: An International Cross-Section Study”, UNCTAD Review, vol. 3, pp. 53-69.
40.Outreville, F. J., 1990b, “The Economic Significance of Insurance Markets in Developing Countries”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 487-498.
41.Outreville, F. J., 1996, “Life Insurance Markets in Developing Countries”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 63, no. 2, pp. 263-278.
42.Patrick, H.T., 1966, “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Culture Change, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 174-89.
43.Regan, L. and Hur, Y., 2007, “On the Corporate Demand for Insurance: The Case of Korean Nonfinancial Firms”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 74, no. 4, pp. 829-850.
44.Sander, H. and Kleimeier, S., 2003, “Contagion and Causality: An Empirical Investigation of Four Asian Crisis Episodes”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 171-186.
45.Sigma, 1997-2006, “Statistical Appendix”, Sigma Publications, various editions, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Zurich.
46.Sigma, 1999, “Asia’s Insurance Markets after the Storm”, Sigma Publications, no. 5, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Zurich.
47.Swiss Reinsurance Company, 1997-2007, “Statistical Appendix”, Sigma Publications, various editions.
48.Szpiro, G. G., 1985, “Optimal Insurance Coverage”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 52, no. 4, pp. 705–710.
49.Truett, D. B. and Truett, L. J., 1990, “The Demand for Life Insurance in Mexico and the United States: A Comparative Study”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 57, no. 2, pp. 321-328.
50.Ward, D. and Zurbruegg, R., 2000, “Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, vol. 67, no. 4, pp. 489-506.
51.Ward, D. and Zurbruegg, R., 2002, “Law, Politics and Life Insurance Consumption in Asia”, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 395-412.
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：1384（臺灣：1374，外國：10） ／ 本年度總使用人次：1725833 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：67538656
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上