We use the demand characteristics of tour bus to establish a demand estimation method. The analysis result of the method indicates that the demand of tour bus has been experienced a steadily growth since 1987. In 1991 the tour bus market occurred supply shortage, however, the market situation reverses since 1997. In addition, our forecasting model says that the demand quantity of tour bus has decreased from 9.9% in 1998 to 3.28% in 2001. This finding shows that the growth rate of tour bus demand has tended to grow in a decreasing rate. Therefore, the data of demand and supply of tour bus suggests that the regulation policy of tour bus license should emphasis in strictly quantity control.