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題名:以混沌理論測定觀光遊憩區旅遊人數非線性變化特質
書刊名:休閒觀光與運動健康學報
作者:黃宗誠 引用關係李泳龍 引用關係
作者(外文):Huang, Tsung-chengLee, Yung-lung
出版日期:2012
卷期:2:2
頁次:頁80-95
主題關鍵詞:混沌理論李雅普諾夫指數時間序列混沌時序非線性Chaos theoryLyapunov exponentTime seriesChaotic time seriesNonlinear
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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  • 共同引用共同引用:17
  • 點閱點閱:28
過去對於旅遊人數時間序列的描述、解釋及預測方面,為求簡化繁雜的估算程序,故通常將其變化趨勢假設為線性增減模式。惟此類資料集本身或許具有非線性變化之特性,並不適合逕行採取線性方法加以處理。因此在決定前述資料集的分析方法前,宜先行探討其本身屬於線性或非線性之變化特質,再據以選擇適合的分析方法為佳。基此,本研究嘗試將物理學門發展的混沌理論,跨域應用於檢驗旅遊人數時間序列是否具有非線性變化情形。同時選定南投縣「清境農場」、「惠蓀林場」、「鳳凰谷鳥園」及「溪頭自然教育園區」作為實證對象,應用Rosentein, Collins與De Luca(1993)提出之「小數據集」方法,分析該四處觀光遊憩區由1998年1月至2010年9月(合計153個月)之旅遊人數時間序列資料。研究結果發現「清境農場」及「溪頭自然教育園區」的旅遊人數時間序列,應存在著混沌變化之特性。所以對於類似旅遊人數時間序列資料,似應轉而考慮以非線性時間序列方法(例如類神經網路、基因演算法與模糊集理論等)予以分析,如此或能得到較為客觀與準確之成果。本研究主要內涵在於嘗試藉用物理學的方法,提供一項實務上可應用於判斷資料集屬性(線性或非線性)的可行模式。
Most literatures showed the variation of visitors in tourists forecasting was assumed constantly variation considering the estimation simplicity. However the facts show the variation pattern of data set should be determined in advance. This study applies chaos theory of physics science as an interdisciplinary application to examine visitor's time series forecast with nonlinear change assumption. The visitors' data are selected from Cingjing Veterans Farm, Hueisun Experimental Forest, National Fonghuanggu Bird Park and Xitou Nature Education Area in Nantou County and "Small data set" method proposed by Rosentein, Collins & De Luca(1933) are used to analyze the time series data from January 1998 to September 2010 (153 months). The results showed Cingjing Veterans Farm and Xitou Nature Education Area are both existed chaos change. Nonlinear time series methods (ex. neural network, genetic algorithms, fuzzy set theory, etc.) are suggested for further research.
期刊論文
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3.du Preez, J.、Witt, S. F.(2003)。Univariate versus multivariate time series forecasting: An application to international tourism demand。International Journal of Forecasting,19,435-451。  new window
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5.賴素鈴、郭春敏(20030600)。921地震對臺灣國際觀光旅館之衝擊--介入模式。觀光研究學報,9(1),123-135。new window  延伸查詢new window
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7.Feichtinger, G.(1996)。Chaos theory in operation research。International Transaction Operation Research,3(1),23-36。  new window
8.Gomes, O.、Mendes, V. M.、Mendes, D. A.、Ramos, J. S.(2007)。Chaotic Dynamics in Optimal Monetary Policy。Eur‘ Phys. J.,57,195-199。  new window
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13.Nichols, J. M.、Nichols, J. D.(2001)。Attractor reconstruction for non-linear systems: a methodological note。Mathematical biosciences,171,21-32。  new window
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15.Takala, K.、Viren, M.(1996)。Chaos and nonlinear dynamics in financial and nonfinancial time series: Evidence from Finland。European Journal of Operational Research,93,155-172。  new window
16.Xie, C.、Chen, Z.、Yu, X.(2006)。Sequence outlier detection based on chaos theory and its application on stock market。Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery,4223,1221-1228。  new window
17.Xu, P.(2009)。Differential phase space reconstructed for chaotic time series。Applied Mathematical Modeling,33(2),999-1013。  new window
18.Yuksel, S.(2007)。An integrated forecasting approach to hotel demand。Mathematical and computer modeling,46,1063-1070。  new window
19.Zhang, J.、Lam, K. C.、Yan, W. J.、Gao, H.、Li, Y.(2004)。Time series prediction using Lyapunov exponents in embedding phase space。Computers and Electrical Engineerings,30,1-15。  new window
20.Rosenstein, M. T.、Collins, J. J.、De Luca, C. J.(1993)。A Practical Method for Calculating Largest Lyapunov Exponents from Small Data Sets。Physica D,65(1),117-134。  new window
21.Kulendran, N.、Witt, S. F.(2003)。Leading indicator tourism forecasts。Tourism Management,24(5),503-510。  new window
22.Lim, C.、McAleer, M.(2002)。Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia。Tourism Management,23(4),389-396。  new window
23.Willey, T.(1992)。Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Stock Indices。Journal of Economics and Business,44(1),63-76。  new window
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25.Burger, C. J. S. C.、Dohnal, M.、Kathrada, M.、Law, R.(2001)。A practitioners guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting-a case study of Durban, South Africa。Tourism Management,22,403-409。  new window
圖書
1.王海燕、盧山(2006)。非線性時間序列分析及其應用。北京:科學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.呂金虎、陸君安、陳士華(2002)。混沌時間序列分析及其應用。武漢:武漢大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉宗華(2006)。混沌動力學基礎及應用。北京:高等教育出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.韓敏(2007)。混沌時間序列預測理論與方法。大連:中國水利水電出版社。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.(20110430)。觀光統計年報,http://admin.taiwan.net.tw/indexc.asp。  new window
2.交通部(20110430)。94年度交通年鑑,http://www.motc.gov.tw/motchypage/yearbook/hypage.cgi?HYPAGE=yearbookvolumeindex.htmandwebm001_mainid=94YB。  new window
3.行政院經濟建設委員會,行政院公共工程委員會,内政部營建署(20110430)。觀光及運動休閒服務業發展綱領及行動方案。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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