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題名:增加政府固定投資的經濟影響--投入產出模型與可計算一般均衡模型的比較
書刊名:農業與經濟
作者:李秉正 引用關係
作者(外文):Li, Ping-cheng
出版日期:2002
卷期:28
頁次:頁71-95
主題關鍵詞:增加政府固定投資投入產出分析可計算一般均衡模型模型比較Increased government fixed investmentInput-output analysisComputable general equilibrium modelModel comparison
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(2) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:62
     本研究建立了我國的投入產出模型(input-output model)和可計算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium, CGE, model)來評估增加政府固定投資對總體經濟與產業經濟(如農業經濟)的影響,就這兩個模型在理論架構上的差異和實證結果的不同,進行分析比較並提出深入的解釋。研究結果顯示政府增加固定投資對我國總體經濟的衝擊受到所選用的模型的影響相當大,而對個別產業(如農業經濟)也是如此。由本研究晟果我們不難發,產品與要素(勞動與資本)市場是否存在價格的僵固性,要素的總供給是否出限制,都是政府固定投資是否能夠刺激經濟成長與帶動產業發展的決定性因素。I-O模型模擬得到的經濟影響度僅僅能視為極短期的最的帶動效果。當一個的經濟體趨於成熟,市場價何機制演重要角色時候,以凱因斯封閉法所架構的CGE模型對於知期現象也有相當合理的解釋能力。而當研高度開發之經濟體的長期現象時,由於勞動力與資本財已經達到有效利用,一個以古典封閉法架構出的CGE模型會比I-O模型具有更好的解釋能力。
     In this research, I constructed a Taiwan input-output (I-O) model and a Taiwan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the economic impacts of increased government spending on the Taiwan economy and its industries. The theoretical structure of these tow models was compared and the differences in their simulation results were addressed in depth. I found that the economic impacts of an increase in government fixed investment are sensitive to the model selected. Especially, the rigidity of prices in commodity and factor (labor and capital) markets and the supply elasticity of factor inputs in inherent in the structure of I-O and CGE models play an important role in the determination of the magnitudes of economic impacts. The research finding indicates that the policy simulation results of an I-O model are best interpreted as the maximal possible short-run impacts on the economy. For a mature economy where markets are well established and price signals are most important information in market transactions, the model simulations based on the CGE model with Keynesian closure may generate acceptable estimates of economic impacts on the economy and reasonable explain the short-run phenomenon in a well-developed economy where all factor inputs are in fixed supply in the long run, a CGE model with neoclassical closure is more suitable than an I-O model in addressing policy issues.
期刊論文
1.Armington, P. S.(1969)。A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production。International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,16(1),159-178。  new window
2.Rose, A.、Miemky, W.(1989)。Input-Output Analysis: the First Fifty Years。Economic Systems Research,1,229-271。  new window
3.Carlton, Dennis W.(1986)。The Rigidity of Prices。American Economic Review,76(4),637-658。  new window
4.Sen, A. K.(1963)。Neo-classical and neo-Keynesian theories of distribution。Economic Record,39,53-66。  new window
5.Swales, J. K.、Yin, Y. P.、McGregor, P. G.(1996)。A Long-run Interpretation of Regional Input-output Analysis。Journal of Regional Science,36(3),479-501。  new window
6.Decaluwe, B.、Martens, A.(1998)。CGE Modeling and Developing Economics: A Concise Empirical Survey of 73 Applications to 26 Countries。Journal of Policy Modeling,10(4),529-568。  new window
7.Shoven, J. B.、Pereira, A. M.(1988)。Survey of Dynamic Computational General Equilibrium Models for Tax Policy Evaluation。Journal of Policy Modeling,10(3),401-436。  new window
8.Richardson, H. W.(1985)。Input-Output and Economic Base Multipliers: Looking Backward and Forward。Journal of Regional Science,25,607-661。  new window
9.Rose, A.(1995)。Input-Output Economics and Computable General Equilibrium Models。Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,6,295-304。  new window
10.Stiglitz, J. E.(1970)。Non-Substitution Theorems with Durable Capital。The Review of Economic Studies,37,543-553。  new window
圖書
1.Dixon, Peter B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Powell, Alan A.、Wilcoxen, Peter J.(1992)。Notes and Problems in Applied General Equilibrium Economics。Amsterdam, Netherlands:North-Holland。  new window
2.Scarf, H. E.(1973)。The computation of economic equilibria。New Haven:Yale University Press。  new window
3.Miller, R. E.、Blair, Peter D.(1985)。Input-output analysis: Foundations and extensions。New Jersey:Prentice-Hall。  new window
4.Dixon, P. B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Sutton, John、Vincent, D. P.(1982)。ORANI: A multisectoral model of the Australian economy。North-Holland。  new window
5.Johansen, Leif(1960)。A Multi-Sectoral Study of Economic Growth。Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Company。  new window
6.Arrow, K. J.(1951)。Alternative Proof of the Substitution Theorem for Leontief Models in the General Case。Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation。New York, NY。  new window
7.Rose, A.、Hanson, K.、Li, P. C.(2002)。Income distribution effects of government transfers: sensitivity to closure rules in input-output and computable general equilibrium approaches。Essays in Honor of Ronald Miller。沒有紀錄。  new window
8.Samuelson, P. A.(1951)。Abstract of a theorem concerning substitutability in open leontief models。Activity analysis of production and allocation。New York, NY。  new window
其他
1.(1998)。中華民國臺灣地區八十五年產業關聯表,沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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