「師範校院轉型」是以師資培育為主流的教育機構，在面對二十一世紀的各種競爭壓力時必須認真思考的重要議題；而「情境分析」則是一種未來學的研究方法，經由對過去與現況的評估，以進行未來發展的預測。本文係以情境分析為方法，並以臺北市立師範學院為例，探討該校未來可能之轉型情境。首先分析國內師範校院之轉型現況，次論情境分析之重要內涵，復次進行臺北市立師範學院轉型之情境分析，並歸結出校內整併、多元策略聯盟與校際整併三種轉型方式，最後根據結論提出可能之建議以供決策者參考。

The "Transformation of Normal Universities & Teachers Colleges" has become an important issue in the twenty-first century as those teachers education institutions confront with growing pressure of competition. In this article, scenario analysis, one of the futurology research methods, was used to study the transformation of Taipei Municipal Teachers College. The first part of this article was to analyze the current circumstances of Normal Universities & Teachers Colleges. In the second part, it discussed the connotation and content of scenario analysis. In the third part, scenario analysis was applied to study the transformation of this college, and three scenarios, internal consolidation, multiple strategic consortia, and institutional amalgamation were concluded appropriable to this college. In the last part, the result provided the authorities and decision makers with probable suggestions.