目標：為預測未來短、中、長期醫師人力可能面臨問題。方法：本文以質性研究方式運用情境分析法引入模擬情境。結果：經研究發現未來醫師人力供需：(1)若短、中期內醫師人力政策維持不變，則人力問題需以輔助方案予以緩解；(2)若短、中期內醫師人力政策採調整策略，則人力問題可以獲致適當解決；以及(3)若短、中期內醫師人力政策採開放制度，則人力過剩效應會在長期顯現。結論：最後提出討論，期使我國醫師人力培育制度之發展臻於健全。

　　　　　Objectives: This study aimed to analyze physician manpower supply and demand. Methods: Using the method of scenario analysis in order to predict possible trends and problems in the future. Results: Our research findings were as follows: (1)If short and mid-term physician manpower policies are fixed, certain supporting plans will be needed. (2) If short and mid-term physician manpower policies are not constant, the manpower problem shall be adjusted with solutions. (3) If short- and mid-term physician manp ower policies adopt to an open system, there will be an oversupply of physicians in the long run. Conclusions: Finally, we expect that Taiwan掇 physician manpower policies can be improved.