採用技術面分析法的終極理想，應是可直托且有效預估股價在下一期的變動結果，退而求其次也應能有效預估變動方向。在臺北股市的目前發展階段之中，本研究所建議的股價(變動方向)前領指標，似乎即應可成為個股最直托有效的技術面分析方式。基本上，所謂的股價前領指標即可簡述如下。其分析與預估的對象為股價波動的動能變化情形，其建立方式完全根據所設研究環境中的優劣評比方式或遊戲規則來設計，而根本依據則為經濟學供需原理。由於並非使用越長歷史股價資料越好，是以對個股而言，能顯示出最高股價前領效果的資料使用長度，顯然即應為最適選擇。當個股甚產業平均值所顯示出的最適資料使用長度大不相同時，在經濟學觀點下，即可能可以公司景氣循環週期來對照與驗證此種最適長度。在樣本期間的上市與上櫃中依產業別的平均觀點來看，在’參考性’與’實際性’兩種不同景氣循環週期類型的交互考量下，此種可對照性與可驗證性實在極為顯著。此即應為股價波動動能所應可包含的部份經濟內涵，在一方面可以綜合顯示股市中的主要需求動能，而在另一方面亦可直接反映公司的景氣循環週期。

Predicting the direction of price movement in the Taiwan Stock Market. First, it has to focus on the dynamic change of stock price movement; second, it has to be designed according to the evaluation system applicable in the selected analytical environment; third, it has to be guided by the economic principle of supply-and-demand. While it is not using as larger size of historical stock price data as better, there must exist a problem as well as solution regarding the issue of optimal data size, as this concerns the best price-leading indicator to be found. Again, according to the basic principle of economics, this issue should be linked directly to the topic of company or industry business cycle. As a result, the findings from this study show that this linkage is quite satisfactory, although based on a somehow artificial way of judgment.