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題名:多變量模糊時間數列模式之應用--以臺灣地區國小教師人數之預測為例
書刊名:新竹師院學報
作者:曾淑惠 引用關係
作者(外文):Tseng, Shu-hui
出版日期:2004
卷期:18
頁次:頁275-294
主題關鍵詞:多變量模糊時間數列模式二因子模式引導式模式馬可夫模式Multivariable fuzzy time series modelsTwo-factor modelHeuristic modelMarkov model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:13
  • 點閱點閱:22
本文提出以多變量模糊時間數列模式-二因子模式、引導式模式、馬可夫模式,建構臺灣地區國小教師人數之預測模式。實證結果得知在有限資料筆數下,馬可夫模式預測結果較佳,二因子模式次之,引導式模式第三。而在方法操作上,以多變量模糊時間數列引導式模式最為簡易。
In this paper, we apply multivariable fuzzy time series models to forecast the number of elementary teachers in the Taiwan area. The empirical result of analyzing here can be concluded as follows: The error of Markov model is the smallest, Two-factor is the second smallet, and Heuristic model is the third smallest. The multivariable fuzzy time series Heuristic model is the easiest method to follow.
期刊論文
1.廖宏彬、蘇仲鵬、吳慧敏(20010600)。ANFIS理論應用於教師人力需求預測模式之建構。教育與心理研究,24(上),1-17。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.洪欽銘、李龍鑣(19960500)。臺灣地區高職教師人數需求之灰色預測模式。教育研究資訊,4(3),104-119。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.吳柏林、張鈿富、廖敏治(19961000)。模糊時間數列與臺灣地區中學教師人數需求之預測。國立政治大學學報,73(下),287-312。  延伸查詢new window
4.曾芳美、曾國雄、袁建中、虞孝成(2001)。Fuzzy ARIMA Model for Forecasting the Foreign Exchange Market。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,118(1),9-19。  new window
5.Wu, B.、Hsu, Y-Y.、Tse, S.(2004)。A new approach of bivariate fuzzy time series: with applications to the stock index forecasting。International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-based Systems,11(6),671-690。  new window
6.Wu, W.(1986)。Fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy relational equations。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,20,67-78。  new window
7.Sullivan, J.、Woodall, W. H.(1994)。A comparison of fuzzy forecasting and Markov modeling。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,64(3),279-293。  new window
8.Jang, J.(1992)。ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems。IEEE Transactions on System, Man and Cybernetics,123(3),665-685。  new window
9.Huarng, K.(2001)。Heuristic models of fuzzy time series for forecasting。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,123,369-386。  new window
10.Chen, S. M.、Hwang, J. R.(2000)。Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series。IEEE Transactions on System, Man and Cybernetics,-Part B: Cybernetics,30(2),263-275。  new window
11.徐歷常(20021200)。臺灣地區國小教師數之短期預測模式分析。教育與心理研究,25(下),485-506。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.吳柏林、許瑞雯(19940900)。臺灣地區國中教師數預測模式。教育與心理研究,17,29-43。new window  延伸查詢new window
13.吳柏林、林玉鈞(2002)。模糊時間數列分析與預測:以臺灣地區加權股價指數為例。應用數學學報,25(1),67-76。  延伸查詢new window
14.馬信行(19920900)。我國各級學校師資之預測。國立政治大學學報,65,63-81。  延伸查詢new window
15.Song, Q.、Chissom, B. S.(1993)。Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,54(1),1-9。  new window
16.Song, Q.、Chisson, B. S.(1993)。Fuzzy time series and its models。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,54(3),269-277。  new window
17.Song, Q.、Chissom, B. S.(1994)。Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,62(1),1-8。  new window
18.Chen, S. M.(1996)。Forecasting Enrollments Based on Fuzzy Time Series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,81(3),311-319。  new window
學位論文
1.王慕超(2000)。網路式智慧型監控系統之設計(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.鄧聚龍(1988)。灰色控制系統。華中理工大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
2.阮亨中、吳柏林(2000)。模糊數學與統計應用。俊傑書局。  延伸查詢new window
3.鄧聚龍(1982)。灰色預測與決策。武漢:華中理工大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Geurts, M. D.(1998)。Four Criteria for Choosing A Model。Understanding Business Forecasting。N.Y.:Graceway Publishing Company, Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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