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題名:銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長--臺灣的實證研究
書刊名:臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者:李建強 引用關係
作者(外文):Lee, Chien-chiang
出版日期:2005
卷期:35:2
頁次:頁79-105
主題關鍵詞:銀行發展股市發展經濟成長長期因果關係Banking developmentStock market developmentEconomic growthLong-run causality
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:24
  • 點閱點閱:39
以往探討我國金融發展與經濟成長的文獻,大多僅著重銀行的個別功能,而忽略銀行與股市的互動關係,此外也遺漏金融變數可能存有內生性的問題。本文針對上述兩項特點,以共積模型探討我國銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長的長期關係及因果關係,並檢測銀行及股市之間究竟為替代抑或互補關係?實證結果顯示銀行發展變數具有弱外生的特性;銀行發展單向降低股市發展,顯示兩者為替代關係。此外,由長期因果關係檢定可知,我國同時存在供給領導(supply-leading)及需求追隨(demand-following)的股市發展型態,而銀行則為供給領導的發展型態。我們將上述實證結果與現有文獻做一比較。
The paper investigates the long-run relationship between banking development, stock market development, and economic growth using Taiwan's data. A multivariate time-series model is employed to test for cointegration and causal relationship between variables that proxy for above. Cointegration and weak exogeneity tests show the following results: (1) banking development and stock market development significantly promote economic growth; (2) proxy for banking development is weakly exogenous for both stock market development and growth; (3) banking development and stock market development are substitute sources for capital borrowing and leading; (4) banking development causes growth which validates supply-leading hypothesis; and (5) the bidirectional causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth supports both supply-leading and demand-following hypothesis. We also compare the empirical results with related literature.
期刊論文
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11.King, Robert G.、Levine, Ross(1993)。Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,108(3),717-737。  new window
12.Patrick, Hugh T.(1966)。Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries。Economic Development and Cultural Change,14(2),174-189。  new window
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14.Levine, Ross、Zervos, Sara(1998)。Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth。The American Economic Review,88(3),537-558。  new window
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21.Johansen, Søren、Juselius, Katarina(1990)。Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2),169-210。  new window
22.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
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24.Kwiatkowski, Denis、Phillips, Peter C. B.、Schmidt, Peter、Shin, Yongcheol(1992)。Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?。Journal of Econometrics,54(1-3),159-178。  new window
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27.Said, S. E.、Dickey, David A.(1984)。Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order。Biometrika,71(3),599-607。  new window
28.Odedokum, M. O.(1996)。Alternative Econometric Approaches for Analyzing the Role of the Financial Sector in Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence from LDCs。Journal of Development Economics,50(1),119-146。  new window
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30.黃介良、周甘淋(1996)。信用合作社獲利績效與地方經濟成長關係之檢定。基層金融,33,1-26。  延伸查詢new window
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34.Demirguc-Kunt, A.、Levine, R.(1996)。Stock Market, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview。The World Bank Economic Review,10(2),223-321。  new window
35.Calderon, C.、Liu, L.(2003)。The Direction of Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth。Journal of Development Economics,72(1),321-334。  new window
36.Demirguc-Kunt, A.、Maksimovic, V.(1996)。Stock Market Development and Financial Choices of Firms。The World Bank Economic Review,10(2),341-369。  new window
37.Cheng, B. S.(1999)。Cointegration and Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in South Korea and Taiwan。Journal of Economic Development,24(1),23-38。  new window
38.羅時萬、黃仁德(2000)。臺灣金融深化與經濟成長關係探討。臺灣銀行季刊,51(2),50-76。new window  延伸查詢new window
39.Demirguc-Kunt, A.、Levine, R.(1996)。Stock Market Development and Finance Intermediaries: Stylized Facts。The World Bank Economic Review,10(2),291-321。  new window
40.Levine, R.(2002)。More on Finance and Growth: More Finance, More Growth?。The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,July/ August,31-52。  new window
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會議論文
1.Arestis, Philip、Demetriades, Panicos O.、Luintel, Kul B.(1996)。Finance and Growth: Institutional Considerations and Causality。The Annual Conference of Royal Economic Society。Wales:University of Wales Swansea。  new window
2.沈中華、徐千婷(2001)。貨幣政策對企業資金成本的影響:我國上市公司個體資料的實證分析。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
3.張存炳、李秀雲(2003)。芝加哥學派可能是對的?以臺灣及日本金融發展與經濟成長之關係分析。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Levine, R.(2001)。Bank-based or Market-based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?。National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
2.Levine, R.(1999)。Bank-Based and Market-based Financial Systems: Cross-country Comparisons。0。  new window
3.Hall, S.、Wickens, M.(1993)。Causality in Integrated Systems。沒有紀錄。  new window
圖書
1.Hansen, H.、Juselius, K.(1995)。CATs in RATs: Cointegration Analysis of Time Series。Evanston, IL:Worldwide Press。  new window
2.The World Bank(1993)。The East Asian Miracle:Economic Growth & Public Policy。New York:Oxford University Press。  new window
3.Godfrey, L. G.(1988)。Misspecification Tests in Econometrics: the Lagrange Multiplier Principle and Other Approaches。Cambridge University Press。  new window
4.Goldsmith, Raymond W.(1969)。Financial Structure and Development。Yale University Press。  new window
5.Mckinnon, Ronald Ian(1973)。Money and Capital in Economic Development。Brookings Institution Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Mackinnon, J. G.(1991)。Critical Values for Cointegration Tests。Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration。New York。  new window
 
 
 
 
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