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題名：金融發展、經濟成長與通貨膨脹的門檻效果
書刊名：臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者：李建強 引用關係
作者(外文)：Lee, Chien-chiang
出版日期：2006
卷期：36:2
頁次：頁77-113
主題關鍵詞：門檻迴歸模型；通貨膨脹；金融發展；經濟成長；Threshold regression model；Inflation；Financial development；Economic growth
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(7) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:14
  • 點閱點閱:462
有關金融發展對經濟成長影響的實證研究，國內、外文獻已有廣大的研究成果，然而兩者間的關係在不同的經濟狀態下是否會發生結構性改變，則是本文所欲進一步探討的課題。本文引進門檻迴歸模型（threshold regression model），以通貨膨脹率作為門檻變數，探討臺灣地區在不同通膨率門檻值下，金融發展對經濟成長的影響效果有何不同。實證結果支持金融發展與經濟成長之間存在通貨膨脹的門檻效果，當通膨率低於7.2526％（或6.6813％）的狀態下，持續進行金融發展可以促進經濟成長；但在通膨率高於此一門檻值的狀態下，持續發展金融對經濟成長的影響效果並不顯著。因此過去國內文獻支持金融發展可以促進經濟成長的結論，只有在低通膨的狀態下才成立；但在高通膨的狀態下，兩者間的關係會消失。我們採用三種不同的金融發展指標，並進行穩健性檢測，再將實證結果與現有文獻的推論做一比較。
This paper applies a threshold regression model of Hansen (1996) to investigate the existence of inflation threshold effects in the relationship between financial developmentd and economic growth. Results indicate that there exists an inflationary threshold effect in Taiwan. Previous studies support the view that financial development may promote economic growth. However, the conclusion drawn from the empirical findings suggests that it can only be achieved under low and moderate inflation. In addition, the threshold level of inflation below which financial development significantly promotes growth is estimated at 7.2526% (or 6.6813%). We use various variables of financial development to test the robustness, and also compare the empirical results with related literature.
期刊論文
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會議論文
1.吳中書(2004)。金融制度與金融發展。沒有紀錄。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.陳仕偉(2000)。太平洋盆地國家通貨膨脹結構之探討。0。  延伸查詢new window
2.Christoffersen, P.、Doyle, P.(1998)。From Inflation to Growth: Eight Years of Transition。0。  new window
3.Jones, L. E.、Manuelli, R. E.(1993)。Growth and the Effects of Inflation。0。  new window
圖書
1.Barro, R. J.、Sala-i-Martin, Xavier(2004)。Economic Growth。MIT Press。  new window
2.Mckinnon, Ronald Ian(1973)。Money and Capital in Economic Development。Brookings Institution Press。  new window
圖書論文
1.Tong, Howell(1978)。On a Threshold Model。Pattern Recognition and Signal Processing。Sijthoff & Noordhoff。  new window
2.Mackinnon, J. G.(1991)。Critical Values for Cointegration Tests。Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration。New York。  new window
 
 
 
 
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