:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:顧客交易資料庫之探勘--以網路電話公司之非契約型顧客為例
書刊名:資訊管理學報
作者:周世玉 引用關係蕭登泰
作者(外文):Chou, ShihyuHasio, Teng-tai
出版日期:2005
卷期:12:2
頁次:頁183-199
主題關鍵詞:顧客關係管理資料庫類神經網路Customer relationship managementDatabaseNeural network
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:172
顧客交易資料庫蘊含對實施顧客關係管理不可或缺的重要資訊。本研究利用國內某網路電話公司顧客交易資庫的非契約型顧客實際交易資料,估計個別顧客關係危險率,進而分析顧客關係長度與顧客終身價值,以及建構各類顧客之顧客關係危險率預測模式。研究結果指出,利用倒傳遞網路估計個別顧客關係危險率時,訓練集合的MSE與錯誤率分別為0.000077與1.30631%,而測試集合的MSE與錯誤率則分別為0.002469與3.636028%,皆顯示出不錯的績效。估計顧客關係長度中位數的平均與剩餘關係長度中位數的平均分別為9.14個月與1.97個月。在顧客終身價值方面,平均每位顧客的價值約為964元,共可產生約615萬元的價值。以各期估計自我相關係數與偏自我相關係數為自變數對顧客進行分群,將顧客分為兩群,集群一的顧客顧客危險率預測適合AR(1)模式,而集群二的顧客顧客危險率預測則較適合白噪音模式。
Customer transaction databases contain relevant information that is related to the implementation of customer relationship management practice. In this study, we use transaction records of non-contract type customers of a domestic internet phone company to estimate individual customer relationship hazard rates, analyze customer lifetime length and lifetime value, and construct customer relationship hazard forecast models for different types of customers. The empirical results indicate that the MSE and error rate are 0.000077 and 1.30631% for the training set, and 0.002469 and 3.636028% for the testing data set by using the back propagation neural network technique to estimate customer relationship hazard rates. Both highlight good performance. The medians of average customer relationship length and average remaining relationship length are 9.14 and 1.97 months respectively. The average customer value is about 964 dollars which is equivalent to 615 million dollars in total. Customers are separated into two groups by using autocorrelation functions and partial autocorrelation functions. The customer relationship hazard rate forecasting models for the two groups are AR(1) and white noise models, respectively.
期刊論文
1.Mulhern, F. J.(1999)。Customer Profitability Analysis: Measure, Concentration, and Research Directions。Journal of Interactive Marketing,13(1),25-40。  new window
2.Jacquelyn, S. T.(2001)。A methodology for linking customer acquisition to customer retention。Journal of Marketing Research,38(2),262-268。  new window
3.Drew, James H.、Mani, D. R.、Betz, Andrew L.、Datta, Piew(2001)。Targeting Customers with Statistical and Data-mining Techniques。Journal of Service Research,3(3),205-219。  new window
4.Blattberg, Robert C.、Deighton, John M.(1996)。Manage Marketing by the Customer Equity Test。Harvard Business Review,74(4),136-144。  new window
5.Berger, Paul D.、Nasr, Nada I.(1998)。Customer Lifetime Value: Marketing Models and Applications。Journal of Interactive Marketing,12(1),17-30。  new window
6.Jain, Dipak、Singh, Siddhartha S.(2002)。Customer Lifetime Value Research in Marketing: A Review and Future Directions。Journal of Interactive Marketing,16(2),34-47。  new window
7.Wyner, G. A.(1996)。Customer Profitability: Linking Behavior to Economics。Marketing Research,8(2),36-38。  new window
8.Ansell, Jake、Harrison, Tina(2002)。Customer Retention in the Insurance Industry: Using Survival Analysis to Predict Cross-selling Opportunities。Journal of Financial Services Marketing,6(3),229-239。  new window
9.Helsen, Kristiaan、Schmittlein, David C.(1993)。Analyzing Duration Times in Marketing: Evidence for the Effectiveness of Hazard Rate Models。Marketing Science,12(4),395-414。  new window
10.Drye, Tim、Wetherill, Graham、Pinnock, Alison(2001)。Donor Survival Analysis: An Alternative Perspective on Lifecycle Modelling。International Journal of Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Marketing,6(4),325-334。  new window
11.Hansotia, Behram J.、Wang, Paul(1997)。Analytical Challenges in Customer Acquisition。Journal of Direct Marketing,11(2),7-19。  new window
圖書
1.Kosko, B. J.(1992)。Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems: A Dynamic Systems Approach to Machine Intelligence。Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey:Prentice-Hill。  new window
2.Lawless, J. F.(1982)。Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data。New York:John Wiley and Sons。  new window
3.Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.、Reinsel, G. C.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco:Holden-Day。  new window
4.Wei, William W. S.(1990)。Time series analysis: Univariate and multivariate methods。Addison-Wesley Inc.。  new window
5.Mehra, Pankaj、Wah, Benjamin W.(1992)。Artificial Neural Networks: Concepts and Theory。Artificial Neural Networks: Concepts and Theory。Los Alamitos, CA。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE