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題名:B-S模式與隨機波動性定價模式之比較:臺指選擇權之實證
書刊名:中山管理評論
作者:許溪南林昭賢 引用關係陳浚泓
作者(外文):Hsu, HsinanLin, Chao HsienChen, Jiun-hung
出版日期:2005
卷期:13:4
頁次:頁837-871
主題關鍵詞:B-S模式隨機波動性式臺指選擇選歷史波動性GARCH波動性B-S modelStochastic volatility modelTAIEX optionsHistorical volatilityGARCH volatility
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:34
B-S模式與其修正模式,如隨機波動性模式、隨機利率模式模式、隨機波動性與跳躍擴散模式等,孰優孰劣?國內許多對不同市場的實證研究,大多顯示修正的模式績效優於B-S模式。由於臺灣股價指數選擇權是一種嶄新的金融商品,其價格行為受到學術界與實務界的關心,但到目前為止文獻上尚未有所評估。因此本文以臺指選擇權為標的,採用B-S模式、Hull & White (1987)模式及Heston (1993)模式等三種模型分別配合歷史波動生與GJR GARCH波動性,對臺指選擇權進行實證研究,比較理論與實際價格之誤差,並進行誤差原因的分析,實證結果顯示,對近月份臺指選擇權,雖然以平均絕對誤差為指標時,並無單一模式永遠優於其他模式,但若以百分比誤差及均方根誤差為指標時,則B-S模式似乎優於其他模式。但對遠月份選擇權,三種誤差指標均顯示隨機波動性選擇權定價模式優於B-S模式。這對投資人有很重要的投資意涵。至於各模式之定價誤差與選擇權價內程度、距離到期日時間、標的股價指數變動率、及股價波動性等因素存在有顯著的關聯性。
Whether the modified option pricing models (such as stochastic volatility option model, stochastic interest rate option model, and stochastic volatility and Poisson jump diffusion option model) outperform the B-S model is an important issue in finance. Most empirical results indicated that stochastic volatility models outperform the B-S model. Since the Taiwan stock index option (TAIEX option) is a new financial derivative, the pricing of this option is concerned by investors as well as academic workers. However, up to date, the pricing behavior of TAIEX options has not been found in the literature. This paper will bridge this gap. We compare the relative performance of B-S, Hull & White (1987) and Heston (1993) model with historical and GJR GARCH volatilities, respectively, in evaluating TAIEX options, and analyzes the factors of pricing biases. Empirical results indicate that, for near month options, although none of the pricing model superiors to other models using mean absolute errors, the B-S model seems to be better than the other models by using mean percentage errors and root mean square errors. For far month options, stochastic volatility models are better than the B-S model by using three measures of errors. These results have an important implication to investors. Finally, the pricing errors are significantly related factors. Such as in-the-money, time to maturity, percentage change in stock index, and the volatility of the underlying index.
期刊論文
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2.Bates, D.(1996)。Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutschemark Options。Review of Financial Studies,9,69-108。  new window
3.Corrado, C.、Su, T.(1998)。An Empirical Test of the Hull-White Option Pricing Model。The Journal of Futures Markets,18(4),363-378。  new window
4.Chiras, D. P.、Manaster, S.(1978)。The Information Content of Option Prices and a Test of Market Efficiency。Journal of Financial Economics,10,213-234。  new window
5.Huang, Y. C.、Chen, Shing C.(2002)。Warrants Pricing: Stochastic Volatility vs. Black-Scholes。Pacific-Basin Journal,10,393-409。  new window
6.Jiang, G. J.(1999)。Index Option Pricing Models with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates。European Finance Review,3,273-310。  new window
7.Wiggins, J. B.(1987)。Option Values under Stochastic Volatility: Theory and Empirical Evidence。Journal of Financial Economics,19(2),351-372。  new window
8.Scott, Louis O.(1997)。Pricing Stock Options in a Jump-Diffusion Model with Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rates: Applications of Fourier Inversion Methods。Mathematical Finance,7,345-358。  new window
9.Scott, L.(1987)。Option Pricing When the Variance Changes Randomly: Theory, Estimation and Testing。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,22,419-438。  new window
10.Nandi, S.(1998)。How Important Is the Correlation between Returns and Volatility in a Stochastic Volatility Model? Empirical Evidence from Pricing and Hedging in the S&P 500 Index Options Market。Journal of Banking and Finance,22,589-610。  new window
11.Amin, K.、Jarrow, R.(1992)。Pricing options on risky assets in a stochastic interest economy。Mathematical Finance,2(4),217-237。  new window
12.Lamoureux, Christopher G.、Lastrapes, William D.(1993)。Forecasting Stock-return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities。The Review of Financial Studies,6(2),293-326。  new window
13.Hull, John C.、White, A.(1987)。The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities。Journal of Finance,42(2),281-300。  new window
14.周行一、陳怡雯(20020400)。臺灣證券交易所發行量加權指數未納入現金股利之再投資因素對投資報酬率及基金績效衡量之影響。證券市場發展,14(1)=53,1-24。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Zakoian, Jean-Michel(1994)。Threshold Heteroskedastic Models。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,18(5),931-955。  new window
16.徐守德、官顯庭、黃玉娟(19980700)。臺股認購權證定價之研究。管理評論,17(2),45-69。new window  延伸查詢new window
17.Merton, Robert C.(1973)。Theory of Rational Option Pricing。Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science,4(1),141-183。  new window
18.Black, Fischer、Scholes, Myron S.(1973)。The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities。Journal of Political Economy,81(3),637-654。  new window
19.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
20.Heston, Steven L.(1993)。A Closed-form Solution for Options With Stochastic Volatility With Applications to Bond and Currency Options。Review of Financial Studies,6(2),327-343。  new window
21.Glosten, Lawrence R.、Jagannathan, Ravi、Runkle, David E.(1993)。On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility on the Nominal Excess Returns on Stocks。Journal of Finance,48(5),1779-1801。  new window
研究報告
1.West, K. D.、Edison, H. J.、Cho, D.(1990)。A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility。University of Wisconsin。  new window
學位論文
1.洪啟安(1998)。台灣認購權證價格形成之實證研究(碩士論文)。長庚大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.林敦舜(2002)。台灣認購權證評價之研究--探討二項式及三項式樹狀模型之評價差異(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.何桂隆(1998)。不同波動性估計方法下台灣認購權證評價績效之比較(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.楊玉菁(2001)。台灣個股型認購權證評價之研究(碩士論文)。彰化師範大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.黃大展(2001)。隨機波動下的二元樹狀模型之探討(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.張文騰(2001)。以電子業為標的之台灣認購權證評價研究--AMM﹑CRR與B-S模型之比較(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.陳香君(2001)。隨機波動選擇權評價模型之實證--以臺灣認購權證為例(碩士論文)。高雄第一科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.趙其琳(1999)。波動性預測能力比較--台灣認購權證之實證研究(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.林佩蓉(2000)。Black-Scholes模型在不同波動性衡量下之表現--股價指數選擇權(碩士論文)。國立東華大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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