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題名:醫療院所之門診失約預測:類神經網路之應用
書刊名:臺灣公共衛生雜誌
作者:葉金標童春芳張巍獻
作者(外文):Yeh, Jin-biaunTung, Chun-fangChang, Wei-hsien
出版日期:2009
卷期:28:5
頁次:頁361-373
主題關鍵詞:類神經網路過預約政策門診失約預測Neural networkOverbookingForecasting of hospital miss-appointments
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:5
  • 點閱點閱:43
目標:本文主要是利用類神經網路的預測能力,進而達到預測醫療院所門診失約情況之目的。方法:本文主要以類神經網路、迴歸分析與星期特性移動平均法預測醫療院所門診失約之情況,並比較三種預測方法何者預測能力較佳。結果:本文不只採用倒傳遞類神經網路進行門診失約預測,也使用星期特性移動平均模式、迴歸分析等預測方法進行績效分析評估,分別以MSE與MAPE兩種方式的績效指標作比較,藉以評估何種方式之預測能力較佳。實證結果為倒傳遞網路在預測顧客失約人數的兩項績效指標皆優於星期特性移動平均、迴歸分析,因而得到倒傳遞網路較其他兩者預測方法更準確之結果;其中三種預測方法的正確率比較:倒傳遞類神經網路約55.91%;星期特性移動平均約47.24%;迴歸分析約48.82%。另外當過度預測某一位病患時所喪失的機會成本大於預測某一位病患時會發生的資源成本0.71倍,倒傳遞網路的預測力優於迴歸分析;在機會成本小於資源成本7.25倍,倒傳遞網路的預測能力比星期特性移動平均佳;若機會成本大於資源成本3.16倍,迴歸分析的預測能力優於星期特性移動平均。結論:以預測值的誤差之MSE及MAPE來判斷,倒傳遞網路比其他兩者預測方法準確。
Objectives: This research used a measurement of Back-Propagation Networking (BPN) to forecast missed hospital appointments. Methods: We compared BPN with Day-of-week Moving Average and a Regression model. Results: BPN predicted mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) better than the others. The forecasting accuracy of BPN was 55.91%, Day-of-week Moving Average 47.24%, and regression 48.82%. On cost analysis: (1) the opportunity cost between Regression and BPN is 0.71 times larger than the resource cost. (2) The opportunity cost between Day-of-week Moving Average and BPN is 7.25 times smaller than the resource cost. (3) The opportunity cost between Day-of-week Moving Average and Regression is 3.16 times larger than the resource cost. Conclusions: When MSE and MAPE are used to compare the performance of these forecasting methods, our results showed that BPN was better than Day-of-Week Moving Average and Regression.
期刊論文
1.蔡宗憲、李治綱、魏健宏(20061200)。短期列車旅運需求之類神經網路預測模式建構與評估。運輸計劃,35(4),475-505。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.唐淑娟、彭克仲(20021200)。灰預測、類神經網路與預測組合之應用--以臺灣地區鳳梨零售價格為例。灰色系統學刊,5(2),95-106。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳建良、王孔政、吳政俊、賴宜伶、陳佳雯(20080700)。類神經網路於農業產銷預測模式之應用。先進工程學刊,3(3),241-249。  延伸查詢new window
4.Williams, B. N.、Hoel, L. A.(2003)。Modeling and Forecasting Vehicular Traffic Flow as a Seasonal ARIMA Process: Theoretical Basis and Empirical Results。Journal of Transportation Engineering,129,664-672。  new window
5.王文利、林文真、趙文忠、陳楚杰、林恆慶(2003)。某醫學中心門診失約病人的特性及失約問題之探討。醫護科技學刊,5,309-19。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Rising EJ, Baron R, Averill B.(1973)。A systems analysis of a niversity health-service outpatient clinic。Oper Res,21,1030-47。  new window
7.Lehmann TNO.(2007)。Missed appointments at a Swiss university outpatient clinic。Public Health,121,790–9。  new window
8.Alex JM, Thomas S.(2007)。Why don’t patients attend their appointments? Maintaining engagement with psychiatric services。Adv Psychiatr Treat,12,423-34。  new window
9.陳繼鳳、許蓮招、林秀鳳、潘純媚、蕭世槐(2006)。門診預約掛號就醫率改善專案。長庚護理,17,341-9。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Lee CS, McCormick PA.(2003)。Telephone reminders to reduce non-atteddance rate for endoscope。J R Soc Med,96,547-8。  new window
11.Rockart JF, Hofmann PB.(1969)。Physician and patient behavior under different scheduling systems in a hospital outpatient department。Med Care,7,463-70。  new window
12.Linthorst GE, de Metz J.(2008)。Global warming could affect outpatient attendance。Lancet,371,474。  new window
13.李婉怡、陳功興(2005)。應用鞏固迴圈架構理論建構銷售預測模式之研究—以便利商店早餐商品為例。資訊科學應用期刊,1,103-13。  延伸查詢new window
14.Sakesun S, Vicent KO.(2008)。Cost minimization models: applications in a teaching hospital。Eur J Oper Res,186,1175-83。  new window
15.Badgley RF, Furnal MA.(1961)。Appointment breaking in a pediatric clinic。Yale J Biol Med,34,117-23。  new window
16.Cates SJ, Colborn DK.(1976)。Lowering appointment failures in a neighborhood health center。Med Care,14,263-7。  new window
17.Pesata V, Pallija G, Webb AA.(1999)。A descriptive study of missed appointments: families’ perceptions of barriers to care。J Pediatr Health Care,13,178-82。  new window
18.Sharp D, Hamilton W.(2001)。Nonattendance at general practices and outpatient clinics。BMJ,323,1081-2。  new window
19.Jackson K, Booth P, Mcguire J.(2006)。Predictors of starting and remaining in treatment at a specialist alcohol clinic。J Subst Use,11,89-100。  new window
20.Stine OC, Chuaqui C, Jimenez C, Oppel WC.(1968)。Broken appointments at a comprehensive clinic for children。Med Care,6,332-9。  new window
21.Rebecca L, Pauline JR.(2006)。An investigation into why patients do not attend for out-patient radiology appointments。Radiography,12,283-90。  new window
22.Chariatte V Berchtold A Akré C Michaud PA Suris JC.(2008)。Missed appointments in an outpatient clinic for adolescents, an approach to predict the risk of missing。J Adolesc Health,43,38-45。  new window
學位論文
1.曾育培(2001)。類神經網路於醫療業顧客失約預測之應用(碩士論文)。國立臺北科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳靖惠(1994)。半導體產業晶圓需求預測之研究-類神經網路模型(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳瑞龍(2000)。運用類神經網路於醫院實施服務品質管理之研究—以花蓮地區醫院為例,花蓮。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.葉怡成(2003)。類神經網路模式--應用與實作。台北:儒林圖書公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.Lewis, C. D.(1982)。Industrial and Business Forecasting Method。London:Butterworths。  new window
 
 
 
 
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