近年來，台北市隨著商業的興起而蓬勃發展，在高度發展商業區的帶動下，都市化快速成長。衡量大台北地區未來發展的趨勢，東北區較具有利條件以疏減市區人口壓力，而內湖區內擁有優質的居家環境，加上跨越基隆河之便捷民權大橋通行後，更促進內湖加速發展，由於內湖區在開發進程上，屬於第二波發展脈動，自1968年改制以來，內湖都市機能以住宅、休憩爲主，至2000年底，10年間人口成長近5倍。當人口不斷遽增時，在有限的面積範圍內，公部門如何有效規劃相關公共設施，如公園綠地、大型購物中心等，提供民眾使用，已成爲一重要土地規劃議題。馬可夫鏈是一種預測模式，模式以其轉換矩陣概念來展示空間區位利用與數量的改變情況，可作爲比較一地區不同時期地貌變遷、土地利用的變化情形，並能預測未來可能之發展，尤其最近來結合其他理論與衛星遙測、地理資訊系統等分析技術，使土地空間利用的規劃與管理更便捷與完善。因此，本文以馬可夫鏈推測內湖區 1997年到2002年土地分區利用面積大小的變遷，並假設變遷機率相同而推測出2007年的各土地利用的面積，將推測結果與實際狀況比較，經由變遷的成果，深入分析土地利用變遷的情形，有效掌握空間之發展特性與趨勢，作爲未來規劃之參考依據，使內湖區將來能成爲帶動台北經濟發展的前鋒。

In recent years, intense commercial district development has resulted in rapid urbanization along with uprising and blooming commercial activities in Taipei City. The northeastern part of the Metropolitan Taipei areas is the ideal center to balance future development trend. The Neihu District, located in the northeastern corner of Taipei City, has the best living environment. With the completion of the cross Keelung River bridge, the development in the Neihu District has accelerated over the years. This is the second wave in the development history of this area. The first wave of land reform in 1968 focuses mainly in housing and recreation development. As population growth increases to almost 5 times in the last 10 years, the crucial land planning strategy in year 2000 is to provide effective infrastructure planning such as greening, parks and shopping malls to satisfy the increasing population needs with the limited supply of available land. Markov Chain is a prediction model that uses the concept of transition matrix to display and quantify spatial land use changes. It may be used to compare land use changes in different time periods and to predict future potential development. Incorporating recent theoretical advent, remote sensing and geographic information system techniques, this model may be able to achieve thorough spatial land use planning and management. This study, therefore, uses the Markov Chain model to assess the subdivision land use changes for year 1997 to 2002. These results are further used to predict land use pattern in 2007, assuming the change rate remains unchanged. The prediction results are then compared with the actual situation. Detail analysis of land use change may facilitate effective control of the characteristics and trend of space development. This provides the necessary guidelines for future land use planning and leads the Neihu district to becoming the frontier for economic development in Taipei City.