自2000年台灣通過農業開發修正條例，正式開啟農地自由買賣的紀元後，農村地景受到了極大的衝擊。為探究農村地景破碎化的問題，本研究以宜蘭縣三星鄉尾塹村、大洲村、大義村為研究區域，利用馬可夫模式預測未來地景變遷，並透過地景指標分析地景格局的變動，以探討農村地景破碎化的情形、因素及影響。研究結果有幾項發現：（1）1987－2009年間，農地為本區之地景基質，但比率逐年下降，若以2000－2009年之開發速度持續開發本區，迄2054年建地將取代農地成為本區最主要之土地利用方式。（2）1987－2000年時因道路網絡的建構，本區處於「分割」之破碎化階段，然至2000－2009年間，受到建地群集擴張的影響，致使本區之破碎化現象呈現「消散」並趨於「收縮」之形式。（3）由於2000－2009年之建地增長率較高，且其地景破碎化情形更形劇烈，故可判斷，農業政策對農村地景變遷具有影響力。（4）1987－2009年期間地景破碎化持續加劇，農村地景逐漸轉變成城郊地景類型，隨著農地急速消失，農產供給的匱乏將成為未來之隱憂，文化服務、調節服務、維持服務等生態系統服務價值，亦將隨著農村地景的變遷而受到損害，建議相關單位應予重視。

Since the Agricultural Development Act Amendment has been enacted in 2000, the era of free trade in farmland began and brought great impact on rural landscape. In order to explore rural landscape fragmentation, three typical countryside villages such as Weiqian, Dazhou, and Dayi, of Sanxing Township were taken as the experimental areas. The Markov model was applied to predict future landscape changes, and landscape indices were used to analyze rural landscape pattern. There are several findings in this paper: (1) Farmland is the main landscape matrix of our research region during 1987~2009, but the ratio is declining. If we keep developing it based on the rate of 2000~2009, constructs would convert into farmland and become main land type in 2054. (2) Due to road network construction, landscape was in the stage of dissection of landscape fragmentation in 1987~2000. But in 2000~2009, because of constructs clustering, it was in the stage of shrinkage toward attrition. (3) Judging from higher increasing speed of constructs and severer phenomenon of landscape fragmentation, we suggest policy is an important factor to rural landscape fragmentation. (4) Rural landscape fragmentation became worse during 1987~2009 and transformed cultivation landscape into peri-urban landscape ,then ecosystem services including provisioning services, culture services, regulating services and supporting services have been destroyed. The Government should grapple with this phenomenon seriously, and take actions to solve the problems.