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題名：一觸即發或虛張聲勢：論一九九五、一九九六臺海危機
書刊名：臺灣政治學刊
作者：蔡榮祥 引用關係
作者(外文)：Tsai, Jung-hsiang
出版日期：2007
卷期：11:1
頁次：頁201-239
主題關鍵詞：崛起大國；邊緣政策；嚇阻失敗；Rising power；Brinkmanship；Deterrence failure
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:28
  • 點閱點閱:45
九五、九六臺海危機是美、中、臺三角關係近年來之互動發展中，最嚴重的一次軍事和外交的衝突。回溯臺海危機發生時，最壞的設想情況是戰爭會一觸即發，而最佳的設想情況是中國的軍事行動只是虛張聲勢。本文主要的研究問題是：一個正在崛起的大國（中國）為何要對台灣採取軍事演習的行動（邊緣政策）？、其背後的理性以及在國際社會的意涵為何？、為何中國於九五年進行第一次飛彈試射之後，又於九六年進行第二次飛彈試射？、為何在臺海危機的過程中，美國作為一個超級強權對於中國的嚇阻會失敗？。主要的發現如下：第一、中國為了追求其在國際社會中地位之提昇，而選擇展示武力；第二、美國對中國之所以嚇阻失敗的原因是因為過度的合作承諾和低度的防衛承諾；第三、中國作為一個崛起的大國故意製造臺海危機，以確保其外交影響力的增加。
The 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Missile Crisis was the most serious military and diplomatic conflict among the U.S., China and Taiwan in recent years. The worst possible scenario during the crisis was that China would wage a war with Taiwan that might drag the U.S into the war. The best possible scenario was that the Chinese military exercise was just a bluff. Why did a rising power (China)adopt a strategy of brinkmanship (military exercise)that targeted Taiwan? What were the reasons and international implications behind China's military actions? Why did China choose to initiate the second missile exercise in 1996? Why could a superpower (the U.S.) not deter China from engaging in military exercises targeting Taiwan (deterrence failure)? This paper aims to answer these questions. The main findings are that the reason why China chose to show force was in order to enhance China's own international status, the reason why the U.S. failed to deter China was because of its overcommitment in cooperating with China and low credibility in defending Taiwan, and the reason why China deliberately brought about the crisis was in order to increase its diplomatic influence.
期刊論文
1.Goldstein, Avery(1997)。Great Expectations: Interpreting China's Arrival。International Security，22(3)，36-73。  new window
2.Lieberthal, Kenneth(199511)。A New China Strategy。Foreign Affairs，74(6)，35-49。  new window
3.Singer, John David(1960)。International Conflict: Three Levels of Analysis。World Politics，12(3)，453-461。  new window
4.Wachman, Alan M.(20020300)。Credibility and the U.S. Defense of Taiwan: Nullifying the Notion of a "Taiwan Threat"。Issues & Studies，38(1)，200-229。new window  new window
5.Wang, Yuan-kang(20020600)。Preserving Peace in the Taiwan Strait。政治學報，33，149-174。  new window
6.Christensen, Thomas J.(2003)。PRC Security Relations with the United States: Why Things Are Going So Well。China Leadership Monitor，8，1-10。  new window
7.Christensen, Thomas J.(2002)。The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict。The Washington Quarterly，25(4)，7-21。  new window
8.Jervis, Robert(1978)。Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma。World Politics，30(2)，167-214。  new window
9.Layne, Christopher(1993)。The Unipolar Illusion: Why the New Power Will Rise。International Security，17(4)，5-51。  new window
10.Shambaugh, David(1996)。The China's Military in Transition: Politics, Professionalism, Procurement and Power Projection。The China Quarterly，146，265-298。  new window
11.Ross, Robert S.(2000)。The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation-Coercion, Credibility and the Use of Force。International Security，25(2)，87-123。  new window
12.Nathan, Andrew J.(2000)。What's Wrong with American Taiwan Policy。The Washington Quarterly，23(2)，93-106。  new window
13.Lampton, David M.(2001)。Small Mercies: China and America after 9/11。The National Interest，66，106-113。  new window
14.Singer, John David(1961)。The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations。World Politics，14(1)，77-92。  new window
15.Whiting, Allen S.(2001)。China's Use of Force, 1950-96, and Taiwan。International Security，26(2)，103-131。  new window
16.Van Ness, Peter(1996)。Competing Hegemons。China Journal，36，125-128。  new window
17.Johnston, Alastair Iain(2003)。Is China a Status Quo Power?。International Security，27(4)，5-56。  new window
18.Schweller, Randall L.(1994)。Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In。International Security，19(1)，72-107。  new window
19.Pape, Robert Anthony(2005)。Soft Balancing Against the United States。International Security，30(1)，7-45。  new window
20.Sutter, Robert(20020600)。The Bush Administration and U.S. China Policy Debate--Reasons for Optimism。Issues & Studies，38(2)，1-30。new window  new window
21.Wu,Yu-shan(19961000)。Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations。Issues & Studies，32(10)，26-52。new window  new window
22.Paul, T. V.(2005)。Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primary。International Security，30(1)，46-71。  new window
23.Ji, You(1997)。Making Sense of War Games in the Taiwan Strait。Journal of Contemporary China，6(15)，287-305。  new window
24.Lampton, David M.、Lampton, D.(1997)。China and Clinton's America: Have They Learned Anything?。Asian Survey，37(12)，1099-1118。  new window
25.林正義(1996)。以安全戰略為主導的外交關係。國家政策雙周刊，139，6-9。  延伸查詢new window
26.Pollack, J. D.(1996)。China's Taiwan Strategy: A Point of No Return。The China Journal，36，111-116。  new window
27.Goldstein, A.(1993)。Great Expectations: Interpreting China's Approval。International Security，22(3)，36-73。  new window
28.Carpenter, T. G.(1998)。Let Taiwan Defend Itself。Cato Policy Analysis，313，2-23。  new window
29.Scobell, A.(2000)。Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesman, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis。Political Science Quarterly，115(2)，227-246。  new window
30.Bi, J.(2002)。The Role of the Military in the PRC Taiwan Policymaking: A Case Study of the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-1996。Journal of Contemporary China，11(32)，539-572。  new window
31.Lampton, D. M.(2003)。The Stealth Normalization of U.S-China Relations。The National Interest，73，37-48。  new window
32.Shambaugh, D.(1997)。The United States and China: Cooperation and Confrontation。Current History，96(611)，242-244。  new window
會議論文
1.裘兆琳(1998)。1995-1996年台海危機 : 華府、北京與台北之決策失誤檢討。臺北：中央研究院歐美研究所。99-143。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.George, Alexander L.、Smoke, Richard(1974)。Deterrence in American Foreign Policy。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
2.Garver, J.(1997)。Face Off: China, the United States, and Taiwan's Democratization。Seattle, WA：University of Washington Press。  new window
3.Waltz, Kenneth N.(1979)。Theory of International Politic。Reading, Mass：Addison-Wesley Pub. Co。  new window
4.Romberg, Alan D.(2003)。Rein in at the Brink of the Precipice: American Policy toward Taiwan and U.S.-PRC Relations。Washington, DC：Henry L. Stimson Center。  new window
5.Paul, T. V.、Wirtz, James J.、Fortmann, Michel(2004)。Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century。Stanford University Press。  new window
6.Suettinger, R. L.、Suettinger, Robert L.(2003)。Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000。Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000。Washington, D.C.：Brookings Institution Press。  new window
7.Lampton, D. M.(2001)。Same Bed and Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-China Relations 1989-2000。Berkeley, CA：University of California Press。  new window
8.Wight, Martin(1978)。Power Politics。London：Leicester, UK：Leicester University Press：Royal Institute of International Affairs。  new window
9.Johnston, Alastair Iain、Ross, Robert S.(1999)。Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power。Routledge。  new window
10.Waltz, Kenneth N.(2001)。Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis。New York：Columbia University Press。  new window
11.Jervis, Robert(1978)。Perception and Misperception in International Politics。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。  new window
12.Schelling, Thomas C.(1966)。Arms and Influence。Yale University Press。  new window
13.Bull, Hedley(2002)。The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics。Columbia University Press。  new window
14.Lebow, Richard N.(1981)。Between Peace and War: The nature of International Crisis。Baltimore, MD：The Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
15.Sutter, Robert G.(1998)。U.S. Policy Toward China: An Introduction to the Role of Interest Groups。Lanham, Maryland：Rowman & Littlefield。  new window
16.Wolfers, Arnold(1962)。Discord and Collaboration: Essays on International Politics。Baltimore, Maryland：Johns Hopkins University Press。  new window
17.Lee, Bernice(1999)。The Security Implications of the New Taiwan。Oxford University Press。  new window
18.Gilpin, Robert(1981)。War and Change in World Politics。Cambridge University Press。  new window
19.Organski, A. F. Kenneth、Kugler, Jacek(1980)。The War Ledger。University of Chicago Press。  new window
20.George, Alexander L.、Bennett, Andrew(2005)。Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences。MIT Press。  new window
21.Schweller, R. L.(1999)。Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory。Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power。London, UK/ New York, NY。  new window
22.George, A. L.(1994)。Coercive Diplomacy: Definition and Characteristics。The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy。Boulder。  new window
23.Tyler, P.(1999)。A Great Wall: Six Presidents and China: An Investigatory History。A Great Wall: Six Presidents and China: An Investigatory History。New York, NY。  new window
24.Sutter, R. G.(1997)。The Taiwan Crisis of 1995-996 and U.S. Domestic Politics。Missile Diplomacy and Taiwan's Future: Innovations in Politics and Military Power。Canberra, Australia。  new window
25.Zhao, S.(1999)。Changing Leadership Perceptions: The Adoption of A Coercive Strategy。Across the Taiwan Strait: Mainland China, Taiwan, and the 1995-1996 Crisis。New York, NY。  new window
26.Friedman, E.(1999)。The Prospects of a Larger War: Chinese Nationalism and the Taiwan Strait Conflict。Across the Taiwan Strait: Mainland, China, Taiwan, and the 1995-1996 Crisis。New York, NY。  new window
27.Hickey, D. V. V.(1999)。The Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1996 Implications for U.S. Security Policy。Across the Taiwan Strait: Mainland, China, Taiwan, and the 1995-1996 Crisis。New York, NY。  new window
28.Christensen, T. J.(2001)。China。Strategic Asia: Power and Purpose, 2001-2002。Seattle, WA。  new window
29.Tucker, N. B.(2001)。The Clinton Years: The Problem of Coherence。Making China Policy: Lessons from the Bush and Clinton Administration。Lanham, MD。  new window
30.Goldstein, A.(2003)。Structural Realism and China's Foreign Policy。Perspectives on Structural Realism。New York, NY。  new window
圖書論文
1.Swaine, Michael D.(2001)。Chinese Decision-Making Regarding Taiwan, 1979-2000。The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform。Stanford, California：Stanford University Press。  new window
2.Ross, Robert S.(2004)。Bipolarity and Balancing in East Asia。Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century。Stanford, California：Stanford University Press。  new window
3.林正義(1996)。1995-1996年台海危機：美國國會的反應。中美關係專題研究：1995-1997。臺北：中央研究院歐美研究所。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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