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引文資料
題名:
From Romantic Triangle to Marriage? Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations in Historical Comparison
書刊名:
Issues & Studies
作者:
吳玉山
作者(外文):
Wu, Yu-shan
出版日期:
2005
卷期:
41:1
頁次:
頁113-159
主題關鍵詞:
Strategic triangle
;
Cross-strait relations
;
U.S. China policy
;
Bismarck
;
World war I.
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
10
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(
2
)
排除自我引用:
9
共同引用:
25
點閱:39
This paper applies the “strategic triangle” approach to the relations among Washington, Beijing, and Taipei in the post-Cold War period. The main argument is that the strategic triangle among the three has been gradually shifting from a “romantic triangle” with the United States playing the role of an “unwilling pivot,” to a “marriage” between the United States and Taiwan—although whether that status can be sustained remains to be seen. The cause of this shift is mainly structural: an unwilling pivot tends to tilt toward the weaker of the two wings, particularly when the stronger wing is emerging as a threat. In making this argument, the paper draws a historical analogy with the Berlin-St. Petersburg-Vienna triangle between 1870 and 1914. In that triangle, the unwilling pivot, Germany, first adopted an impartial attitude toward Russia and Austria-Hungary. As the duel between St. Petersburg and Vienna intensified over the Balkans, however, Germany was forced to take sides and bind its fate with the Hapsburg Empire. A comparison of the two triangles—including their modes of entry, operation, and exit—reveals a strong tendency in the Washington-Beijing-Taipei triangle to evolve following the historical pattern of the pre-WWI Berlin-St. Petersburg-Vienna triangle. Based on this comparison, we can conclude an unwilling pivot should find that the costs associated with pivot playing are likely too high, and entry into a partnership with one of the wings is deemed more favorable. It remains to be seen whether a formal marriage will come about between the United States and Taiwan, as it did between Germany and Austria-Hungary prior to WWI.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Goldstein, Joshua S.、Freeman, John R.(1991)。U.S.-Soviet-Chinese Relations: Routine, Reciprocity, or Rational Expectations?。American Political Science Review,85(1),17-35。
2.
Hsiung, James C.(2004)。The Strategic Triangle: Dynamics Between China Russia, and the United States。Harvard International Review,26(1),14-17。
3.
Rozman, Gilbert(2000)。A New Sino-Russian-American Triangle?。Orbis,44(4),541-556。
4.
Ross, Robert S.(2002)。Navigating the Taiwan Strait。International Security,27(2),48-85。
5.
Van Evera, Stephen(1984)。The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War。International Security,9(1),58-107。
6.
Sutter, Robert(2002)。Grading Bush's China Policy: A-。PacNet Newsletter,10。
7.
O'Hanlon, Michael(2000)。Why China Cannot Conquer Taiwan。International Security,25(2),51-86。
8.
蘇格(1999)。世紀末國際形勢展望:國際格局與美國國家安全戰略。中國評論,14,8-10。
延伸查詢
9.
Ross, Robert S.(2000)。The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation-Coercion, Credibility and the Use of Force。International Security,25(2),87-123。
10.
熊玠(1999)。二十一世紀中國統一前景預測。中國評論,14,60-64。
延伸查詢
11.
Christensen, Thomas J.(2002)。The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict。The Washington Quarterly,25(4),7-21。
12.
Dittmer, Lowell(1981)。The Strategic Triangle: An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis。World Politics,33(4),485-515。
13.
Wu, Yu-shan(19930700)。The Collapse of the Bipolar System and Mainland China's Foreign Policy。Issues & Studies,29(7),1-25。
14.
Wu,Yu-shan(19961000)。Exploring Dual Triangles: The Development of Taipei-Washington-Beijing Relations。Issues & Studies,32(10),26-52。
15.
Friedberg, Aaron L.(1983)。The Collapsing Triangle: U.S. and Soviet Policies toward China, 1969-1980。Comparative Strategy,4(2),113-146。
會議論文
1.
Dittmer, Lowell(2003)。Taiwan as a Factor in China's Quest for National Identity。the International Conference on Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study,National Chengchi University (會議日期: 2003/11/02)。Taipei。
2.
Romberg, Alan D.(2001)。Taiwan in U.S.-PRC Relations: A Strategic Perspective。conference on "U.S.-China Relations and the Bush Administration: A New Paradigm or Continuing Existing Modalities。Claremont, California:Claremont McKenna College。
3.
Shambaugh, David(2002)。The Military-Political Dimension in the U.S.-China-Taiwan Triangle。the conference on "Taiwan and U.S. Policy: Toward Stability or Crisis?"。Capitol Hill, Washington D.C.。
研究報告
1.
Dittmer, Lowell(1996)。The Chinese 'Mini-Triangle': An Analysis of United States Policy toward China and Taiwan。
圖書
1.
Bagdasarian, Nicholas Der(1976)。The Austro-German Rapprochement, 1870-1879: From the Battle of Sedan to the Dual Alliance。Cranbury, N.J.:Associated University Press。
2.
Craig, Gordon A.(1978)。Germany 1866-1945。New York:Oxford University Press。
3.
Ito, Go(2003)。Alliance in Anxiety: Detente and the Sino-American-Japanese Triangle。New York:Routledge。
4.
Lee, Stephen J.(1982)。Aspects of European History: 1789-1980。London:Routledge。
5.
Pulzer, Peter(1997)。Germany: 1870-1945。Germany:Oxford University Press。
6.
Pflanze, Otto(1963)。Bismarck and the Development of Germany。Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press。
7.
Stern, Fritz(1977)。Gold and Iron。New York:Alfred A. Knopf。
8.
Williamson, D. G.(1992)。Bismarck and Germany: 1862-1890。London:Longman。
9.
Wilborn,Thomas L.(1996)。International Politics in Northeast Asia: The China-Japan-United States Strategic Triangle。Carlisle, Penn.:Strategic Studies Institute U.S. Army War College。
10.
Zhang, Ming、Montaperto, Ronald N.(1999)。A Triad of Another Kind: The United States, China, and Japan。New York:Palgrave。
11.
Wu, Yu-Shan(1997)。抗衡或互從:兩岸關係新詮。Taipei:Cheng-chung。
延伸查詢
12.
Albrecht-Carrié, René(1973)。A Diplomatic History of Europe: Since the Congress of Vienna。New York:Harper & Row。
13.
Segal, Gerald(1982)。The Great Power Triangle。N.Y.:St. Martin's Press。
14.
Kim, Ilpyong J.(1987)。The Strategic Triangle: China, the United States, and the Soviet Union。New York:Paragon House。
15.
Zhao, Suisheng(1999)。Across the Taiwan Strait: Mainland China, Taiwan, and the 1995-1996 Crisis。Routledge。
16.
Cha, Victor D.(1999)。Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle。Stanford, Calif.:Stanford University Press。
17.
Mearsheimer, John J.、Alterman, G.(2001)。The Tragedy of Great Power Politics。W. W. Norton & Company。
18.
Kissinger, Henry A.(1979)。White House Years。Little, Brown and Company。
19.
Kissinger, Henry Alfred(1994)。Diplomacy。Simon & Schuster。
20.
Medlicott, W. N.、Coveney, Dorothy K.(1971)。Bismarck and Europe。London:Edward Arnold。
圖書論文
1.
Bao, Tzong-Ho(1999)。An analysis of role transition and type change in a strategic triangle: the case of triangular interaction between the United States and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait。爭辯中的兩岸關係理論。Taipei:Wunan。
2.
Friedman, Edward(2002)。Reflecting the Mirrors across the Taiwan Straits: American Perspectives on a China Threat。The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths, and Reality。London:Routledge & Curzon。
3.
Lampton, David M.、Wilhelm, Alfred D.(1995)。United States and China Relations at a Crossroads。The United States and China Relations at a Crossroads。Lanham, Md:University Press of America。
4.
Pollack, Jonathan D.(2002)。American Perceptions of Chinese Military Power。The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality。London:Routledge & Curzon。
5.
Wang, Feiling(2001)。Tragedy of China: the incoming great conflict of nationalism across the Taiwan Strait。民族主義與兩岸關係。Taipei:Third Nature Publishing。
6.
Wachman, Alan M.(2001)。America's Taiwan Quandary: How Much Does Chen's Election Matter?。Taiwan's Presidential Politics: Democratization and Cross-Strait Relations in the Twenty-First Century。Armonk, N.Y.:M.E. Sharpe。
7.
Wu, Yu-Shan(2001)。Does Chen's Election Make Any Difference? Domestic and International Constraints on Taipei Washington, and Beijing。Taiwan's Presidential Politics: Democratization and Cross-Strait Relations in the Twenty-First Century。Armonk, N.Y.:M.E. Sharpe。
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