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題名:印巴「全面對話」復談協商過程之分析
書刊名:問題與研究
作者:陳純如
作者(外文):Chen, Chun-ju
出版日期:2009
卷期:48:4
頁次:頁153-188
主題關鍵詞:全面對話印巴關係恐怖攻擊Composite dialogueIndian-Pakistan relationsTerrorism
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 點閱點閱:19
從印度和巴基斯坦在1998 年決定進行「全面對話」(Composite Dialogue),到2004 年2 月印巴「全面對話」正式開展,期間受到兩國情勢及事件的阻撓,並在2006 年7 月中斷數月。印度和巴基斯坦也花很多時間和精力在討論對話條件以及所包括的議題。本文的焦點為2003 年及2006 年「全面對話」兩次復談協商的過程。本文將「全面對話」復談協商過程視為協調賽局,並分析、檢驗內部因素與外部壓力如何影響印巴對於復談協商的意願、相關合作成本,以及協商的結果。2003 年,由於印度內部情勢的變化,給了復談一個機會,而且在美國的關切下,印度將美國視為保證,同時因為雙方領導人的情況,製造了一種急迫感,而使得印度同意與巴基斯坦復談。而在2006 年7 月,印度因為孟買恐怖攻擊而宣布暫停「全面對話」中的外秘級會談,但是因為「全面對話」已進行三年,印巴之間也有若干合作措施,加上印度與美國正在進行核能合作的協商,因此,對話在三個月後恢復,而美國仍然扮演促進者和保證者的角色。
India and Pakistan agreed to undertake “Composite Dialogue” in 1998. However, the dialogue did not take place substantially until February 2004. In the interim, the two countries were deterred from launching the dialogue officially by various kinds of domestic situations and events. In July of 2006, the dialogue was disrupted again for several months due to terrorism. In the meantime, India and Pakistan spent a lot of time and efforts in negotiating the conditions for the resumption of the dialogue and issues to be included. This paper will focus on the negotiation in 2003 and in 2006 for the resumption of composite dialogue. This paper will treat the negotiation as a coordination game (assurance game) and accordingly examine how domestic factors and external pressure affected the willingness, cost for cooperation, and the result of the negotiation. In 2003, change of the domestic situation in India provided a chance for the dialogue to resume. Under the concern of the United States, India regarded the United States as the provider of assurance. At the same time, given the situation of the leaders of India and Pakistan, a sense of urgency was created that prompted the two countries to resume “Composite Dialogue.” In July of 2006, India put off foreign secretary-level talk in the dialogue due to the terrorist attacks in Mumbai. However, the dialogue had been ongoing for three years, and India and Pakistan had adopted several confidence-building measures. In addition, India had engaged in negotiation with the United States on nuclear energy cooperation. Three months later, the talk resumed. The United States continued to facilitate and provide assurance to the negotiation.
期刊論文
1.Makeig, Douglas C.(1987)。War, No-war, and the India-Pakistan Negotiations Process。Pacific Affairs,60(2),271-294。  new window
2.陳文賢(2004)。印度與巴基斯坦和平談判的展望。中華歐亞基金會研究通訊,7(2)。  延伸查詢new window
3.Asif, Bushra、Schaffer, Teresita C.(2004)。Pakistan: Parliamentary Elections and after。South Asia Monitor,66。  new window
4.Noorani, A. G.(2006)。There Is So Much to Gain Mutually。Frontline,23(16)。  new window
圖書
1.Fukuyama, F.(1995)。Trust: The Social Values and the Creation of Prosperity。New York:Free Press。  new window
2.Axelrod, Robert M.(1984)。The Evolution of Cooperation。Basic Books。  new window
3.(2006)。US-India Strategic Cooperation into the 21st Century。US-India Strategic Cooperation into the 21st Century。London, UK。  new window
4.Grove, Andrea K.(2007)。Political Leadership in Foreign Policy: Manipulating Support across Borders。Political Leadership in Foreign Policy: Manipulating Support across Borders。New York, NY。  new window
5.Gupta, Amit(2005)。The US-India Relationship: Strategic Partnership of Complementary Interest?。The US-India Relationship: Strategic Partnership of Complementary Interest?。Montgomery, AL。  new window
6.Hoffman, Aaron M.(2006)。Building Trust: Overcoming Suspicion in International Conflict。Building Trust: Overcoming Suspicion in International Conflict。Albany, NY。  new window
7.Kux, Dennis(2006)。India-Pakistan Negotiations: Is Past Still Prologue?。India-Pakistan Negotiations: Is Past Still Prologue?。Washington, D.C.。  new window
8.Kydd, Andrew H.(2007)。Trust and Mistrust in International Relations。Trust and Mistrust in International Relations。Princeton, NJ。  new window
9.(1993)。Dilemmas and National Security and Cooperation in India and Pakistan。Dilemmas and National Security and Cooperation in India and Pakistan。New York, NY。  new window
10.Rahman, Mushtaqur(1996)。Divided Kashmir: Old Problems, New Opportunities for India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri People。Divided Kashmir: Old Problems, New Opportunities for India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri People。Boulder, CO。  new window
11.Wirsing, Robert G.(2003)。Kashmir in the Shadow of War。Kashmir in the Shadow of War。Armonk, NY。  new window
其他
1.Andley, Priyashree(2007)。Third Composite Dialogue: An Overview of Indo-Pak Relations in 2006。  new window
2.Kronstadt, K. Alan(2002)。Elections in Kashmir。  new window
3.Manjunath, K. S.,Sridhar, Seema,Anand, Beryl(2006)。Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue, 2004-05: A Profile。  new window
 
 
 
 
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