:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:總體經濟因素與資訊傳遞效果於美國與臺灣債券市場動態過程之研究
書刊名:管理與系統
作者:王凱立林卓民 引用關係王美智
作者(外文):Wang, Kai-liLin, Cho-minWang, Mei-chih
出版日期:2010
卷期:17:4
頁次:頁611-636
主題關鍵詞:債券市場GARCH模型波動風險訊息傳導貨幣政策宣告Bond marketGARCHVolatilityRiskInformation transmissionMonetary policy Announcements
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:33
本文提出一般化TCC MGARCH-MSKST模型,針對美國與台灣債市價格發現與訊息傳遞機制,考量美、台債市跨市場報酬及波動傳導、自身市場及跨市場之波動不對稱傳導、總體經濟因素對於債市報酬與波動之解釋能力、自身市場與跨市場風險溢酬、不同型態貨幣政策宣告對於債市價格變動的不對稱反應及不同貨幣政策結構下對於報酬、波動、訊息流動與共變異結構影響等因素,據以提供美、台債市動態行爲更深入的分析。實證結果顯示,美債不論報酬或波動對台債皆具領先效果,且美債對台債訊息傳遞主要經由不對稱波動傳導途徑進行。總體經濟變數部分,包括貨幣政策宣告、股市、利率及匯率,對於債市價格及波動過程存在一定程度解釋能力。其次,針對央行貨幣宣告事件,發現美國聯準會貨幣政策宣告造成之市場波動持續,比其他型態訊息衝擊短暫,以較快速度被市場吸納而弱化波動行程。本文發現美債相對台債快速消化市場干擾,以較短時程調整回復至穩定水準,因而降低市場波動的持續性。最後,檢驗美債和台債相關係數,發現美、台債市呈現顯著正相關,且美國聯準會重大貨幣政策宣告明顯增加跨國債市同期關聯,說明美、台債市同期連動存在隨時間門檻轉換性質。
This paper proposes a general TCC MGARCH-MSKST model to investigate the dynamic relationship between U.S. and Taiwan bond markets. We analyze the price discovery and information transmissions mechanism in two markets, bringing monetary announcement effects and macroeconomic factors into considerations. Our empirical evidences reveal there is return and volatility spillover effects from U.S. to Taiwan bond markets; moreover the information transmission primarily follow asymmetric volatility spillover path. Regarding the macroeconomic variables, we found monetary policy announcements, stock, interest rate and exchange rate offer some extent explanatory power for pricing and volatility in bond markets. We also discover Fed monetary announcement shock will absorb quickly by the market, leading to volatility persistence of brief duration in comparisons to other types of information shock. Finally, in our examination these two markets exhibit a significant positive correlation coefficient. Fed monetary announcements clearly increase the contemporaneous correlation in these two markets, implying the correlation in two markets exhibit time varying threshold properties.
期刊論文
1.Ferreira, M. A.、Lopez, J. A.(2005)。Evaluating Interest Rate Covariance Models within a Value-at-Risk Framework。Journal of Financial Econometrics,3(1),126-168。  new window
2.Christiansen, C.(2007)。Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets。European Financial Management,13(5),923-948。  new window
3.Andersen, Torben G.、Bollerslev, Tim、Diebold, Francis X.、Vega, Clara(2007)。Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets。Journal of International Economics,73(2),251-277。  new window
4.Jones, C.、Lamont, O.、Lumsdain R.(1998)。Macroeconomic News and Bond Market Volatility。Journal of Financial Economics,47(3),315-338。  new window
5.Piazzesi, M.(2005)。Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve。Journal of Political Economy,113(2),311-344。  new window
6.王凱立、陳美玲(2002)。「美國和台灣股票期貨市場之動態關聯:一般化多變量 GARCH 模型的應用」。經濟論文,第三十卷第四期,363-408 頁。  延伸查詢new window
7.Brock, William Allen、Dechert, W. Davis、Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre、LeBaron, Blake Dean(1996)。A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension。Econometric Reviews,15(3),197-235。  new window
8.Cheung, Y. W.、Ng, L. K.(1996)。A Causality-in-variance Test and Its Application to Financial Market Prices。Journal of Econometrics,72,33-48。  new window
9.Engle, R. F.、Ito, T.、Lin, W. L.(1990)。Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-day Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market。Econometrica,58(3),525-542。  new window
10.Engle, R. F.、Ito, T.、Lin, W.-L.(1990)。Meteor Showers or Heat Waves: Heterosked Astic Intradaily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market。Econometrica,58(3),525-542。  new window
11.Hunter, D. M.、Simon, D. P.(2005)。A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets。European Financial Management,11(4),463-482。  new window
12.Kanas, A.(1998)。Volatility Spillovers across Equity Markets: European Evidence。Applied Financial Economics,8(3),245-256。  new window
13.Peiro, A.(1999)。Skewness in Financial Returns。Journal of Banking and Finance,23(6),847-862。  new window
14.Engle, R. F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroske- dasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
15.周雨田、李志宏、巫春洲(20020800)。臺灣期貨對現貨市場的資訊傳遞效果分析。財務金融學刊,10(2),1-22。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.Brooks, C.(1997)。Linear and Non-Linear Forecastability of High-Frequency Exchange Rates。Journal of Forecasting,16,125-145。  new window
17.Ross, S.(1989)。Information and Volatility: The Non-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy。Journal of Finance,44,11-17。  new window
18.Longstaff, Francis A.、Schwartz, Eduardo S.(1992)。Interest-Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-factor General Equilibrium Model。The Journal of Finance,47(4),1259-1282。  new window
19.Fleming, J.、Kirby, C.、Ostdiek, B.(1998)。Information and Volatility Linkages in the Stock, Bond, and Money Markets。Journal of Financial Economics,49,111-137。  new window
20.Chow, E. H.、Lee, W. Y.、Solt, M. E.(1997)。The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns。Journal of Business,70(1),105-123。  new window
21.Engle, R. F.、Lilien, D. M.、Robins, R. P.(1987)。Estimating time varying risk premia in the term structure: The ARCH-M model。Econometrica,55(2),391-407。  new window
22.Lamoureux, C. G.、Lastrapes, W. D.(1990)。Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects。The Journal of Finance,45(1),221-229。  new window
23.Engle, Robert F.、Ng, Victor K.(1993)。Measuring and testing the impact of news on volatility。The Journal of Finance,48(5),1749-1778。  new window
24.Skintzi, V. D.、Refenes, A. N.(2006)。Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets。Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money,16(1),23-40。  new window
25.Longin, Francois、Solnik, Bruno(1995)。Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?。Journal of International Money and Finance,14(1),3-26。  new window
26.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
27.Baillie, Richard T.、Bollerslev, Tim(1990)。A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Approach to Modeling Risk Premia in forward Foreign Exchange Rate Markets。Journal of International Money and Finance,9(3),309-324。  new window
28.Bollerslev, Tim(1990)。Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized Arch Model。The Review of Economics and Statistics,72(3),498-505。  new window
29.Cappiello, Lorenzo、Engle, Robert F.、Sheppard, Kevin(2006)。Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity & bond returns。Journal of Financial Econometrics,4(4),537-572。  new window
30.Mittnik, S.、Paolella, M. S.(2000)。Conditional Density and Value-at-Risk Prediction of Asian Currency Exchange Rates。Journal of Forecasting,19(4),313-333。  new window
31.Andritzky, J. R., Bannister, G. J., and Tamirisa, N. T.,(2007)。“The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds,”。Emerging Markets Review,vol. 8,no. 1,pp. 20-37。  new window
32.Ang, A. and Chen, J.,(2002)。“Asymmetric Correlation of Equity Portfolio,”。Journal of Financial Economics,vol. 63,no. 3,pp. 443-494。  new window
33.Bauwens, L. and Laurent, S.,(2005)。“A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, with Application to GARCH Models”。Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,vol. 23,no. 3,pp. 346-354。  new window
34.Branson, W. H.,(1977)。“Asset Markets and Relative Prices in Exchange Rate Determination,”。Sozialwissenschaftliche Annalen,vol. 1,pp. 69-89。  new window
35.Christiansen, C.,(2000)。“Macroeconomic Announcement Effects on the Covariance Structure of Government Bond Returns,”。Journal of Empirical Finance,vol. 7,no. 5,pp. 479-507。  new window
36.Chow, E. H.、Lee, W. Y.、Solt, M. E.(1997)。The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns。Journal of Business,70,105-124。  new window
37.Cifarelli, G. and Paladino, G.,(2006)。“Volatility Co-Movements between Emerging Sovereign Bonds: Is there Segmentation between Geographical Areas?”。Global Finance Journal,vol. 16,no. 3,pp. 245-263。  new window
38.Deb, P.,(1996)。“Finite Sample Properties of Maximum Likelihood and Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators of EGARCH Models,”。Econometric Reviews,vol. 15,no. 1,pp. 51-68。  new window
39.de Goeij, P. and Marquering, W.,(2006)。“Macroeconomic Announcements and Asymmetric Volatility in Bond Return”。Journal of Banking and Finance,vol. 30,no. 10,pp. 2659-2680。  new window
40.Fair, R.,(2003)。“Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates,”。Journal of International Money and Finance,vol. 22,no. 3,pp. 307-341。  new window
41.Kim, S. J., McKenzie, M. D., and Faff, R. W.,(2004)。“Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Role of Expectations: Evidence for US Bond, Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets,”。Journal of Multinational Financial Management,vol. 14,no. 4,pp. 217-232。  new window
42.Kim, S. J., Lucey, B. M., and Wu, E.,(2006)。“Dynamics of Bond Market Integration between Established and Accession European Union Countries,”。Journal of International Financial Market s,vol. 6,no. 1,pp. 41–56。  new window
43.Lee, S. and Hansen, B.,(1994)。“Asymptotic Theory for the GARCH(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator,”。Econometric Theory,no. 1,pp. 29-52。  new window
44.Reilly, F. J. R., David, W. J., and Chan, K. C.,(2000)。“Bond Market Volatility Compared to Stock Market Volatility,”。Journal of Portfolio Management,vol. 27,no. 1,pp. 82-93。  new window
45.Sarkar, S. and Ariff, M.(2002)。“The Effect of Interest Rate Volatility on Treasury Yields,”。Applied Financial Economics,vol. 12,no. 9,pp. 667-672。  new window
46.Solnik, B., Boucrelle C., and Fur, Y. L.,(1996)。“International Market Correlation and Volatility,”。Financial Analysts Journal,vol. 52,no. 1,pp. 17-34。  new window
47.王凱立、陳美玲(2002)。美國和臺灣股票期貨市場之動態關聯--一般化多變量GARCH模型的應用。經濟論文,30(4),363-408。new window  延伸查詢new window
48.Andritzky, J. R.、Bannister, G. J.、Tamirisa, N. T.(2007)。The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds。Emerging Markets Review,8(1),20-37。  new window
49.Fair, R.(2003)。Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates。Journal of International Money and Finance,22(3),307-341。  new window
50.Kim, S. J.、McKenzie, M. D.、Faff, R. W.(2004)。Macroeconomic News Announcements and the Role of Expectations--Evidence for UB Bond, Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets。Journal of Multinational Financial Management,14(4),217-232。  new window
51.Kim, S. J.、Lucey, B. M.、Wu, E.(2006)。Dynamics of Bond Market Integration between Established and Accession European Union Countries。Journal of International Financial Markets,6(1),41-56。  new window
52.Ang, A.、Chen, J.(2002)。Asymmetric Correlation of Equity Portfolio。Journal of Financial Economics,63(3),443-494。  new window
53.Bauwens, L.、Laurent, S.(2005)。A New Class of Multivariate Skew Densities, with Application to GARCH Models。Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,23(3),346-354。  new window
54.Branson, W. H.(1977)。Asset Markets and Relative Prices in Exchange Rate Determination。Sozialwissenschaftliche Annalen,1,69-89。  new window
55.Brooks, C.(1997)。Linear and Non-Linear Forecastability of High-Frequency Exchange Rates。Journal of Forecasting,16(2),125-145。  new window
56.Christiansen, C.(2000)。Macroeconomic Announcement Effects on the Covariance Structure of Government Bond Returns。Journal of Empirical Finance,7(5),479-507。  new window
57.Cifarelli, G.、Paladino, G.(2006)。Volatility C0-Movements between Emerging Sovereign Bonds--Is there Segmentation between Geographical Areas?。Global Finance Journal,16(3),245-263。  new window
58.Deb, P.(1996)。Finite Sample Properties of Maximum Likelihood and Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators of EGARCH Models。Econometric Reviews,15(1),51-68。  new window
59.de Goeij, P.、Marquering, W.(2006)。Macroeconomic Announcements and Asymmetric Volatility in Bond Return。Journal of Banking and Finance,30(10),2659-2680。  new window
60.Longstaff, F. A.、Schwartz, E. S.(1992)。Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure--A Two-Facotr General Equilibrium Model。Journal of Finance,47(4),1259-1283。  new window
61.Lee, S.、Hansen, B.(1994)。Asymptotic Theory for the GARCH (1, 1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator。Econometric Theory,10(1),29-52。  new window
62.Reilly, F. J. R.、David, W. J.、Chan, K. C.(2000)。; Bond Market volatility Compared to Stock Market Volatility。Journal of Portfolio Management,27(1),82-93。  new window
63.Ross, S.(1989)。Information and Volatility--The Non-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy。Journal of Finance,44(1),11-17。  new window
64.Sarkar, S.、Ariff, M.(2002)。The Effect of Interest Rate Volatility on Treasury Yields。Applied Financial Economics,12(9),667-672。  new window
65.Solnik, B.、Boucrelle C.、Fur, Y. L.(1996)。International Market Correlation and Volatility。Financial Analysts Journal,52(1),17-34。  new window
會議論文
1.Li, L. and Engle, R. F. ,(1998)。“Macroeconomics Announcement and Volatility of Treasury Futures,”。  new window
研究報告
1.Cappiello, L. ,(2000)。“Do Fixed Income Securities Also Show Asymmetric Effects in Conditional Second Moments?”。  new window
2.Li, L., ,(2002)。“Correlation of Stock and Bond Return-Theory and Empirical Evidence,”。  new window
3.Li, L.、Engle, R. F.(1998)。Macroeconomics Announcement and Volatility of Treasury Futures。  new window
4.Li, L.(2002)。Correlation of Stock and Bond Return-Theory and Empirical Evidence。  new window
5.Cappiello, L.(2000)。Do Fixed Income Securities Also Show Asymmetric Effects in Conditional Second Moments?。Geneva, Switzerland。  new window
其他
1.Pagan, A. R. and Sabau, H. ,(1987)。“On the Inconsistence of the MLE in Certain Heteroskedasticity Regression Model,”。  new window
2.Pagan, A. R.,Sabau, H.(1987)。On the Inconsistence of the MLE in Certain Heteroskedasticity Regression Model。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE