摘 要 兩岸經濟合作架構協議(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, 簡稱ECFA)已於2010 年6 月29 日順利簽署，雖然ECFA 協議使台灣廠 商將具有取得領先競爭對手國進入中國大陸市場之優勢，但對於部分內 需型、競爭力較弱之敏感性產業，將因中國大陸低價進口品市場開放之 競爭威脅產生負面影響。本研究將透過COMPAS 模型，選擇「因應貿易 自由化產業調整支援方案」艱困產業中長短襪產業作為主要的研究對 象，並與業者、公會進行訪談，針對彈性變數的設定與模擬結果作細部 的確認，模擬當台灣將中國大陸長短襪產業進口關稅調降為0 時，對台 灣一般及廉價長短襪生產業者之影響。 本研究結果發現，當台灣完全開放中國大陸長短襪市場時，生產單 價及生產量將微幅衰退0.16%及0.08%，而國內廠商收入方面，則是衰退 0.24%；進口方面，進口價格下降3.43%，進口量則是成長9.93%，貿易商營收亦隨之成長6.16%；整體社會福利情況，關稅調降後，生產者剩 餘減少約98 萬元，稅收減少約120 萬元，消費者剩餘則增加約224 萬元。 業者反應調降中國大陸長短襪關稅後，將使低價位業者無利可圖，加上 台灣本土生產成本高，進而可能造成國內廠商經營不善、國產品遭受嚴 重排擠，而微幅的產量減少，將促使台灣多數單次接單僅有數百打的廠 商經營嚴重惡化，廠商競爭更為激烈，並產生惡性的削價競爭。

Abstract The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (abbreviated ECFA) has been signed on June 29, 2010 smoothly. ECFA will bring Taiwan manufacturers the advantage of earlier entrance to China market than other opponents, but for some sensitive industries with more focus on inner demand and weaker competiveness, there will also be negative influence because of the competitive threats at the market which is open to the low-priced products flooding from China. Adopting the COMPAS model, this research chose the hosiery industry, one of the industries facing difficulties defined in ‘Implement Projects to Support Industries’ Adjustment to Trade Liberalization’ as the major subject, interviewed the manufacturers and the trade union, and confirmed the setting of flexible variables and the results of simulation in details. This research simulated the effects on general industries and hosiery industry in Taiwan if Taiwan reduced the import tariff for China hosiery industry to zero. The result of the research found that when Taiwan opened the hosiery industry market entirely to China, the unit price and production would reduce by 0.16% and 0.08% respectively. As for the income of domestic manufacturers, the reduction would be 0.24%. In import, the imported price would decrease by 3.43% while the import volumeincreased by 9.93%, and the income of traders consequently increased by 6.16%. Regarding the social welfare situation, after the tariffs were reduced, the surplus of manufacturers would decrease by 980,000 dollars, and the tax revenue would lose 1.2 million dollars, but the surplus of consumers would increase by 2.24 million dollars. Manufacturers said that if the tariff for Chinese hosiery industry was reduced, there would be no profits for low profit industries. Moreover, with the high production cost in Taiwan, the tariff reduction might affect business of local manufacturers and cause the replacement of local products by cheap products from China. However, the slight decrease in production would make the business of manufacturers with orders of only several hundred dozens of units worse. The competition between manufacturers would get worse, and the cut throat price competition would be inevitable.