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題名:反傾銷案件產業損害認定經濟分析模型之研究-台灣型鋼產業之應用
作者:李淑媛 引用關係
作者(外文):Shu-Yuan Lee
校院名稱:國立臺灣大學
系所名稱:農業經濟學研究所
指導教授:張靜貞
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2006
主題關鍵詞:傾銷COMPAS模型產業損害認定型鋼產業DumpingCOMPAS ModelInjurySteel Beam Industry
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(23) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:23
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:41
在市場大幅度開放之餘,進口國國內產業容易遭受傾銷進口產品之不正常競爭行為的影響,使致進口國的國內產業受到損害。目前各國用以衡量產業損害的指標不同,常常引起爭論,普受重視的衡量方法是由美國國際貿易委員會所發展的商業政策分析系統(簡稱COMPAS模型),但其對於輸入參數過份敏感以及完全競爭假設過份強烈為其兩大缺點,再加上該模型為部份均衡分析,其只能探討傾銷對國內生產同類產品之產業影響,對於其他相關產業或國內整體經濟的影響,則無法評估出來,故常招致使用者對其結果之批評。
本研究為結合機率概念,將投入變數背後之不確定性以機率分配的概念描述,以求得一個較為客觀且合理之損害範圍,並將國內市場修正為寡占市場結構,以改善COMPAS模型只能用於完全競爭市場之缺點。另外,利用單國可計算一般均衡分析方法進行事後模擬,其不但可以得到產業損害之資訊,另一方面亦可從提供上、下游產業影響變動以及其他如總體面之相關資訊於決策單位,作為反傾銷稅之課徵決策的參考依據。
在此挑選在我國反傾銷訴訟案件中,佔有重要地位的型鋼產業作為研究對象,實證結果發現,寡占廠商因其有市場競爭力,故傾銷行為對其之影響多為於價格面,不同於完全競爭市場之產出面。另外,若比較加入機率概念之實證結果,則發現傳統COMPAS模型對傾銷行為對產業所帶來之影響有高估的現象,而由可計算一般均衡分析之事後模擬發現,傾銷對該產業及其上游產業的產出會帶來負面的影響,但對於其下游產業則為正面的影響。
The main purpose of this research is to amend and evaluate the COMPAS model that the U.S. International Trade Commission(USITC) uses to analyze the impact of unfair trade to a specific domestic industry. We begin by adding a variable that describes market structure from perfectly competitive to oligopoly. This our study finds that a probabilistic model that takes into account the uncertainty surrounding economic parameter reduces the risk of misjudging the effect on the domestic industry of dumping. Finally, we use a CGE model to determine the effects on upstream and downstream industries.
Using the steel beam industry as an example, simulation results show that an oligopoly market structure experiences more of a price-effect than a perfectly competitive one. And limiting the analysis to the 8 scenarios of COMPAS model might tend to overstate the overall effect on the domestic industry. The upstream industries experience a negative effect and the downstream industries a positive effect when dumping occurs.
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