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題名：蘭陽溪流域之山崩土石流潛在危害預測
書刊名：前瞻科技與管理
作者：李錫堤／費立沅
作者(外文)：Lee, Chyi-tyi／Fei, Li-yuan
出版日期：2011
卷期：1:2
頁次：頁67-83
主題關鍵詞：山崩；土石流；土砂生產量；潛感分析；羅吉斯迴歸；Landslide；Debris-flow；Sediment yield；Susceptibility analysis；Logistic regression
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(1)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:32
本研究以蘭陽溪流域為例，以多變量分析中的羅吉斯迴歸方法分別進行山崩潛感分析及土石流潛感分析。潛感分析結果進一步建立崩壞比曲線及土石流發生比曲線，藉以將潛感值轉換為機率值，供建立機率分布圖。所建立的模型可以用來預估某一降雨量分布下之淺層滑動型山崩機率分布及某一溪流發生土石流的可能性，供集水區山崩與土石流潛勢評估暨土砂災害評估之用。
This study investigates a robust procedure for event-based landslide susceptibility analysis through a case study in the Lanyang River drainage basin, northern Taiwan. It includes: how to select a landslide inventory for analysis? How to select landslide causative factors? How to build a susceptibility model? How to validate the model? How to transfer the susceptibility value to landslide probability? And how to use the model for predicting sediments yield? The landslide susceptibility model built in this way may be used in a storm scenario by given an hourly rainfall distribution and total rainfall distribution in the study region and predict shallow landslides as well as debris-flow streams in the region. These models are feasible for use in landslide, debris flow, and sediment yields in a drainage basin.
期刊論文
1.Brenning, A.(2005)。Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazards: Review, Comparison and Evaluation。Natural Hazards and Earth System Science，5，853-862。  new window
2.Carrara, A.(1983)。Multivariate Models for Landslide Hazard Evaluation。Mathmatical Geology，15，403-426。  new window
3.Carrara, A. et al.(2008)。Comparing Models of Debris-Flow Susceptibility in the Alpine Environment。Geomorphology，94，353-378。  new window
4.Chang, T.C.、Chao, R.J.(2006)。Application of Back-Propagation Networks in Debris Flow Prediction。Engineering Geology，85(3/4)，270-280。  new window
5.Chung, C. J. F.、Fabbri, A. G.(1999)。Probabilistic Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping。Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Seneing，65，1389-1399。  new window
6.Chung, C. J. F.、Fabbri, A. G.(2003)。Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping。Natural Hazards，30，451-472。  new window
7.Claessens, L. et al.(2007)。Modelling landslide hazard, soil redistribution and sediment yield of landslides on the Ugandan footslopes of Mount Elgon。Geomorphology，90，23-35。  new window
8.Goovaerts, Pierre(2000)。Geostatistical Approaches for Incorporating Elevation into the Spatial Interpolation of Rainfall。Journal of Hydrology，228(1/2)，113-129。  new window
9.Iverson, R. M.(2000)。Landslide Triggering by Rain Infiltration。Water Resources Research，36，1897-1910。  new window
10.Jibson, R. W.、Harp, E. L.、Michael, J. A.(2000)。A method for Producing Digital Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Maps。Engineering Geology，58(3/4)，271-289。  new window
11.Lee, C.T. et al.(2008)。Statistical Approach t o Earthquake-Induced Landslide Susceptibility。Engineering Geology，100，43-58。  new window
12.Lee, C.T. et al.(2008)。Statistical Approach to Storm Event-Induced Landslide Susceptibility。Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences，8，941-960。  new window
13.Lee, S.、Min, K.(2001)。Statistical Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility at Yongin, Korea。Environmental Geology，40(9)，1095-1113。  new window
14.Lee, S.、Ryu, J. H.、Lee, M. J.、Won, J. S.(2003)。Use of An Artificial Neural Network for Analysis of the Susceptibility To Landslides at Boun, Korea。Environmental Geology，44(7)，820-833。  new window
15.Montgomery, D.R.、Dietrich, W.E.(1994)。A Physical Based Model for the Topographic Control on Shallow Landsliding。Water Resources Research，30，1153-1171。  new window
16.Neuland, H.(1976)。A Prediction Model of Landslips。Catena，3，215-230。  new window
17.Stehman, S. V.(1997)。Selecting and Interpreting Measures of Thematic Classification Accuracy。Remote Sensing of Environment，62(1)，77-89。  new window
18.van Westen, C. J.、van Asch, T. W. J.、Soeters, R.(2006)。Landslide Hazard and Risk Zonation--Why Is It Still So Difficult?。Bulletin of Engineering Geology and Environment，65(2)，167-184。  new window
19.Wang, H.B.、Sassa, K.(2006)。Rainfall-Induced Landslide Hazard Assessment Using Artificial Neural Networks。Earth Surface Processes and Landforms，31(2)，235-247。  new window
20.Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Detti, R.、Guzzetti, F.(1992)。Uncertainty in assessing landslide hazard and risk。ITC Journal，2，172-183。  new window
21.Guzzetti, F.、Reichenbach, P.、Cardinali, M.、Galli, M.、Ardizzone, F.(2005)。Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale。Geomorphology，72(1-4)，272-299。  new window
22.Koukis, G.、Ziourkas, C.(1991)。Slope Instability Phenomena in Greece: A Statistical Analysis。Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment，43，47-60。  new window
23.Guzzetti, F.、Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Reichenbach, P.(1999)。Landslide hazard evaluation: A review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy。Geomorphology，31(1-4)，181-216。  new window
24.Swets, John A.(1988)。Measuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems。Science，240(4857)，1285-1293。  new window
25.Horton, R. E.(1945)。Erosional development of streams and their drainage basins; hydrophysical approach to quantitative morphology。Bulletin of the Geological Society of America，56，275-370。  new window
26.Jibson, R. W.、Keefer, D. K.(1993)。Analysis of the Seismic Origin of Landslides: Examples from the New Madrid Seismic Zone。Geological Society of America Bulletin，105(4)，521-536。  new window
27.Strahler, Arthur N.(1952)。Hypsometric (Area-Altitude) Analysis of Erosional Topography。Bulletin of the Geological Society of America，63(11)，1117-1141。  new window
28.Carrara, A.(1991)。GIS Techniques and Statistical Models in Evaluating Landslide Hazard。Earth Surface Processes and Landforms，16，427-445。  new window
29.Hearn, G. J.(1995)。Landslide and Erosion Hazard Mapping at Ok Tedi Copper Mine, Papua New Guinea。Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology，28，47-60。  new window
會議論文
1.Cannon, S.H. et al.(2003)。Wildfire-Related Debris-Flow Generation Progressive Sediment-Bulking Processes, Western U.S.A.。Third International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation。Davos, Switzerland：Rotterdam, A.A. Balkma。71-82。  new window
2.Carrara, A.(1988)。Landslide Hazard Mapping by Statistical Methods: A 'Black Box' Approa ch。Workshop on Natural Disasters in European Mediterranean Countries。Perugia, Italy：Massachusetts Institute of Technology。205-224。  new window
3.Kobashi, S.、Suzuki, M.(1988)。Hazard Index for the Judgement of Slope Stability in the Rokko Mountain region。Interpraevent 1988, Graz。Austria：VHB。223-233。  new window
4.Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Detti, R.、Guzzetti, F.、Pasqui, V.、Reichenbach, P.(1990)。Geographical information systems and multivariate models in landslide hazard evaluation。ALPS 90 Alpine Landslide Practial Seminar, Sixth International Conference and Field Workshop on Landslides。Milan, IT：Universita degli Studi de Milano。17-28。  new window
5.Gao, J.、Lo, C. P.(1991)。GIS Modeling of influence of topography and morphology on landslide occurrence in Nelson County。GIS/LIS '91。Virginia：American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, American Congress on Surveying and Mapping。954-963。  new window
研究報告
1.Cannon, S.H. et al.(2004)。Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazard from Basins Burned by the Cedar and Paradise Fires of 2003 (計畫編號：2004-1011)。Southern California, US。  new window
2.Jones, F.O. et al.(1961)。Landslides Along the Columbia River Valley, Northeastern Washington。Reston, VA, US。  new window
圖書
1.Wilson, J.P.、Gallant, J.C.(2000)。Terrain Analysis: Principles and Applications。New York：Danvers, MA, US：Wiley：John Wiley & Sons.pography。  new window
2.Davis, J. C.(2002)。Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology。John Wiley & Sons。  new window
3.Kirkby, M.J.(1975)。Hydrograph Modelling Strategies。Process in Physical and Human Geography。London, UK：Heinemann。  new window
4.Mark, R.K.、Ellen, S.D.(1995)。Statistical and Simulation Models for Mapping Debris-Flow Hazard。Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards。Norwell, M.A., US：Kluwer Academic。  new window
5.Agresti, Alan(2002)。Categorical Data Analysis。John Wiley & Sons。  new window
6.Feinberg, Stephen.(2007)。The Analysis of Cross-classified Categorical Data。New York：Springer。  new window
 
 
 
 
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