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題名:臺灣股票市場技術指標之研究--不同頻率資料績效比較
書刊名:東海管理評論
作者:陳淑玲吳安琪費業勳
作者(外文):Chen, Shu-lingWu, An-chiFey, Yeh-hsun
出版日期:2011
卷期:12:1
頁次:頁187-225
主題關鍵詞:證券市場技術分析移動平均線隨機指標雙指標組合資料頻率Stock marketTechnical analysisMoving averageStochastic oscillatorDual-indicatorsFrequency
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:17
  • 點閱點閱:44
本研究針對日、週、月及日內頻率台灣加權股價指數資料,在考量交易成本下, 利用不同長、短週期的移動平均線(Moving Average, MA)與隨機指標Stochastic Oscillator, KD)配置,其包含短線操作(5 日、5 週)、季報效應(60 日、13 週、3 月)、半年報效應(120 日、26 週、6 月)和年報效應(240 日、52 週、12 月),探討台股市場獲利績效表現。實證結果顯示,以移動平均線作為買賣交易策略時,不論於日、週及月頻資料,均以季線型移動平均線發出的買賣訊號獲得較高的投資報酬率。本研究進一步以MA 及KD 組成雙指標組合,投資報酬則相對為佳,其中又以60 日MA 與9 日KD 組合績效在所有技術分析指標中獲利績效最佳。同時考量市場歷年重大事件造成之多、空時期,60 日MA 與9 日KD 組合績效不論在多頭或空頭均可獲得穩健的獲利結果。最後,針對日內資料再作驗證,仍以60 根分時MA 與9 根分時KD 雙指標操作績效最佳,再次印證本文雙指標投資績效的優越性。總合本文結果,印證技術指標可獲超額報酬,運用雙指標判斷可獲得較佳績效,說明投資者可參考不同技術指標之頻率組合而獲得績效較佳之買賣時點。
In this paper, we employ daily, weekly, monthly and intra-day data of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) with application of the Moving Average Line (MA) and Stochastic Oscillator (KD) to analyze differences in investment performances under particular technical indicator. The transaction costs are taken into consideration in our research and the following Moving Average Lines are applied: 5 days (5 weeks)-MA, 60 days(13 weeks, 3 months)-MA, 120 days(26 weeks, 6 months)-MA, 240 days(52 weeks, 12 months)-MA. These MA Lines represent the short-term trading, quarterly report effect, semi-annual report effect, and annual report effect respectively. The results show that while using MA as short-term trading strategy, the quarterly characterized indicators cause better total and average returns for each data frequency. By combining both MA and KD as dual-indicators, we observe that the indicators composed of quarterly MA and KD with daily frequency obtain the highest return. Moreover, the result indicates that both quarterly MA and the dual-indicators perform well when taking bullish and bearish market conditions into account. We also find that the dual-indicators with intra-day frequency have the best market returns. Comparing with low-frequency data, the indicators with high frequency do achieve better annual return. In conclusion, we examine that trading strategies for getting excess returns can be implemented by using technical indicators; and superior investment performances are realizable when adopting dual-indicators as referrals. Our findings confirm that analysis on both technical indicators and data frequencies suggests investors in searching for better trading timing.
期刊論文
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3.許溪南、何怡滿、劉泰山(2011)。KD及MACD在避險時機之應用:以台指期貨避險為例。東吳經濟商學學報,72,109-138。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.樓禎祺、何培基(2003)。股價移動平均線之理論與實證--以台灣股市模擬投資操作為例。育達研究叢刊,5/6,27-52。  延伸查詢new window
5.Fifield, S. G. M.、Power, D. M.、Knipe, D. G. S.(2008)。Performance of Moving Average Rules in Emerging Stock Markets。Applied Financial Economics,18(19),1515-1532。  new window
6.Gencay, R.、Stengos, T.(1998)。Moving Average Rules, Volume and Predictability of Security Return with Feed Forward Network。Journal of Forecasting,17(1),401-414。  new window
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8.Hsu, P. H.、Kuan, C. M.(2005)。Reexamining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with Data Snooping Checks。Journal of Financial Econometrics,3(4),606–628。  new window
9.Hsu, P. H.、Hsu, Y. C.、Kuan, C. H.(2010)。esting the Predictive Ability of Technical Analysis Using a New Stepwise Test without Data Snooping Bias。Journal of Empirical Finance,17(3),471-484。  new window
10.Lai, M. M.、Lau, S. H.(2006)。The Profitability of the Simple Moving Averages and Trading Range Breakout in the Asian Stock Markets。Journal of Asian Economics,17,144-170。  new window
11.Lento, C.(2008)。Forecasting Security Returns with Simple Moving Averages。International Business and Economics Research Journal,7(11)。  new window
12.Ling, P. W.(2011)。Development of Stock Trading Optimization Analysis System Using Moving Average Method。Applied Mechanics and Materials,66-68+1703-1707。  new window
13.Marshall, B. R.、Cahan, R. H.(2005)。Is Technical Analysis Profitable on A Stock Market which has Characteristics that Suggest it may be Inefficient?。Research in International Business and Finance,19,384-398。  new window
14.Papathanasiou, S.、Samitas, A.(2010)。Profits from Technical Trading Rules: The Case of Cyprus Stock Exchange。Journal of Money, Investment and Banking,13,35-43。  new window
15.Wang, J. L.、Chan, S. H.(2009)。Trading Rule Discovery in the US Stock Market: An Empirical Study。Expert Systems with Applications,36(3),5450-5455。  new window
16.Zhu, Yingzi、Zhou, Guofu(2009)。Technical analysis: An Asset Allocation Perspective on the Use of Moving Averages。Journal of Financial Economics,92(3),519-544。  new window
17.Ratner, M.、Leal, R. P. C.(1999)。Tests of technical trading strategies in the emerging equity markets of Latin America and Asia。Journal of Banking and Finance,23(12),1887-1905。  new window
18.Kendell, M. G.(1953)。The Analysis of Economic Time-Series-Part I: Prices。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,116(1),11-34。  new window
19.黃彥聖(19950100)。移動平均法的投資績效。管理評論,14(1),47-67。new window  延伸查詢new window
20.Brock, William、Lakonishok, Josef、LeBaron, Blake(1992)。Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns。The Journal of Finance,47(5),1731-1764。  new window
21.Gunasekarage, Abeyratna、Power, David M.(2001)。The profitability of moving average trading rules in South Asian stock markets。Emerging Markets Review,2(1),17-33。  new window
22.Bessembinder, Hendrik、Chan, Kalok(1995)。The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in the Asian Stock Markets。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,3(2/3),257-284。  new window
23.McKenzie, Michael D.(2007)。Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises。Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,43(4),46-73。  new window
24.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
25.許溪南、何怡滿、張瓊如(20120100)。KD 與MA 技術指標在避險時機之應用:以臺指選擇權為例。輔仁管理評論,19(1),27-46。new window  延伸查詢new window
26.許溪南、何怡滿、劉玉琦(20090200)。權變避險模式在臺灣股市之應用。臺灣管理學刊,9(1),23-46。new window  延伸查詢new window
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研究報告
1.Marshall, B. R.、Cahan, R. C.、Cahan, J. M.(2010)。Technical Analysis around The World。Massey University New Zealand。  new window
學位論文
1.王邵佑(2000)。隨機指標KD值投資績效之實研究(碩士論文)。國立台北大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.林天運(2007)。大盤未來走勢預測--KD指標的實證分析(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.趙永昱(2002)。技術分析交易法則在股市擇時之實證研究(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Edwards, R. D.、Magee, J.、Bassetti, W. H. C.(2001)。Technical Analysis of Stock Trend。New York:St Lucie Press。  new window
2.Eng, W. F.(1988)。The Technical Analysis of Stock, Options and Futures: Advanced Trading Systems and Technioues。Chicago:Probus Publishing。  new window
3.Murphy, J. J.(1986)。Technical Analysis of the Futures Market: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Method and Application。Englewood Cliffs:New York Institute of Finance/ Prentice Hall。  new window
 
 
 
 
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