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題名:選擇權市場效率性檢定:隱含波動率成對交易檢定法
書刊名:管理與系統
作者:郭維裕 引用關係陳鴻隆陳威光 引用關係
作者(外文):Kuo, Wei-yuChen, Hung-lungChen, Wei-kuang
出版日期:2013
卷期:20:3
頁次:頁425-458
主題關鍵詞:波動率差成對交易市場交互效率檢定Volatility spreadPair tradingCross-market efficiency
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:18
  • 點閱點閱:48
由於台灣股票市場中電子類股佔整體市場約70%的成交比重,因此電子指數與台股加權指數間應存在共同的波動率因子,以兩者為標的之選擇權的隱含波動率差亦應存在一長期穩定關係。本文檢定台指買權及電子買權隱含波動率序列是否存在共同因子,並檢定兩隱含波動率序列是否存在緩長記憶性;接著,以均數回歸模型檢定兩選擇權隱含波動率差偏離均衡後的動態行為;最後,使用成對交易進行選擇權市場交互效率性檢定。此檢定法的特點是以選擇權波動率差偏離幅度設計交易策略,因此只需觀察選擇權隱含波動率的相對偏離程度,不需選擇權的合理價格。在交易策略的設計方面,除過去文獻提出的交易策略外,我們另提出一以波動率差的均數回歸速度決定持有期間的持有期間判斷準則。實證資料顯示,台指買權及電子買權隱含波動率序列確實存在共同因子,且兩選擇權的隱含波動率序列存在長期穩定關係、隱含波動率差序列則呈現均數回歸過程。以波動率差為進出場訊號建構投資組合,在考量保證金及交易成本後發現建構投資組合的次數不多,且平均報酬率雖為正但並不顯著。這些結果顯示台指買權及電子買權出現相對錯誤定價的機會不高且針對錯誤定價建構的模擬投資組合無法帶來顯著正獲利。台灣選擇權市場中台指買權與電子買權的定價具有交互效率性。
Based on the fact that the market capitalization of the electronic sector often accounts for about 70% of the total market capitalization of the Taiwan stock market, we consider if there exist a common volatility factor and a long-run stable relationship between the electronic sector index and the Taiwan Stock Exchange capitalization weighted stock index and, therefore, between the implied volatilities of the options contracts, whose underlying indices are the electronic sector index and the Taiwan Stock Exchange capitalization weighted stock index, respectively. In particular, in order to examine such a conjecture, this paper firstly tests whether the implied volatilities posses the property of long memory and a common volatility factor. Secondly, we construct a mean-reverting regression model to capture the dynamic behavior of the spread between the implied volatilities. Finally, we investigate the cross-market efficiency of the index options market in Taiwan according to the pair trading strategies of volatility spread. By utilizing the pair trading strategies, we can avoid calculating the daunting fair values of options contracts and just focus on the spread of implied volatilities. In addition to the strategies studied in the literature, we also design a pair trading strategy, which is based on the speed for the volatility spread to revert to its long term mean, to study the cross-market efficiency of the index options market in Taiwan. The empirical results show that there exists a common factor and a long-run stable relationship between the implied volatilities of the two index options contracts and that the dynamic behavior of the volatility spread follows a mean-reverting stationary process. Regarding the test of cross-market efficiency, we find that after taking the margins and transaction costs into account, the options portfolios constructed based on the volatility spread do not trade much and deliver only insignificant profits. Overall, these results suggest that there does not exist significant pricing error between the options contracts of the electronic sector index and the Taiwan Stock Exchange capitalization weighted stock index and the pair trading strategies based on the spread of their implied volatilities would not bring investors significant profits. Therefore, there exists cross-market efficiency for the index options market in Taiwan.
期刊論文
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2.黃玉娟、陳嘉琳(20040100)。買賣價差之分解-TAIFEX與SGX-DT之比較。管理評論,23(1),49-72。new window  延伸查詢new window
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9.Gemmill, G.(1986)。The Forecasting Performance of Stock Options on the London Traded Options Markets。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,13(4),535-546。  new window
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12.Poon, S. H.、Pope, P. F.(2000)。Trading Volatility Spreads。European Financial Management,6(20),235-260。  new window
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14.Christoffersen, P.、Jacobs, K.(2004)。The Importance of the Loss Function in Option Valuation。Journal of Financial Economics,72(1),291-318。  new window
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19.Ofek, Eli、Richardson, Matthew、Whitelaw, Robert F.(2004)。Limited Arbitrage and Short Sales Restrictions: Evidence from the Options Markets。Journal of Financial Economics,74(2),305-342。  new window
20.Amin, K.、Coval, J. D.、Seyhun, H. N.(2004)。Index Option Prices and Stock Market Momentum。Journal of Business,77(4),835-873。  new window
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22.詹錦宏、施介人(20050300)。臺股指數現貨、期貨與選擇權價格發現之研究。臺灣金融財務季刊,6(1),31-51。new window  延伸查詢new window
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43.謝文良、李進生、袁淑芳、林惠雪(20070500)。臺灣股價指數現貨、期貨與選擇權市場之價格發現研究--Put-Call-Parity之應用。中華管理評論,10(2),(3)1-(3)24。  延伸查詢new window
44.黃玉娟、余尚恩、黃可欣、謝秀沄(20050900)。以買權賣權期貨平價理論探討臺指期貨與臺指選擇權之套利機會與套利利潤。輔仁管理評論,12(3),1-21。new window  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Do, B., Faff, R.、Hamza, K.(2006)。A New Approach to Modeling and Estimation for Pairs Trading。Monash University。  new window
2.Ray, B. K.、Tsay, R. S.(1997)。Identifying Common Long-range Dependence in a Vector Time Series。University of Chicago。  new window
學位論文
1.李興瑋(2007)。台灣加權股價指數波動率與選擇權操作策略之研究(碩士論文)。長庚大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.連士傑(2007)。台灣加權股價指數的預測與台指選擇權交易策略之研究(碩士論文)。臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.張一帆(2007)。台灣證券交易所電子類股價指數選擇權市場效率性之實證研究(碩士論文)。雲林科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.張恭輔(2007)。台灣期貨市場之指數期貨與指數選擇權套利實證研究(碩士論文)。雲林科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.曹立杰(2008)。以套利策略探討台指隱含波動度微笑現象(碩士論文)。屏東科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.黃速真(2009)。臺股指數選擇權套利策略實證研究(碩士論文)。東吳大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.黃雯卿(2007)。無模型設定隱含波動度之實證研究--以台灣股價指數選擇權為例(碩士論文)。國立東華大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.鄭家豪(2008)。臺指期貨選擇權套利效率性之研究(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.謝佑聖(2007)。以ETF進行台指期貨與選擇權之套利分析(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
10.耿世鈞(2008)。臺指選擇權與臺指期貨間對價關係與套利機會之檢測(碩士論文)。銘傳大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Gemmill, G.(1993)。Options Pricing。U.K.:McGraw-Hill。  new window
 
 
 
 
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