臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：建構美國職棒大聯盟的勝隊預測模式：以人工類神經網路方式
書刊名：大專體育學刊
作者：陳麒文／李天行 引用關係／梁玉秋
作者(外文)：Chen, Chi-wen／Lee, Tian-shyug／Liang, Yu-chiu
出版日期：2014
卷期：16:2
頁次：頁167-181
主題關鍵詞：資料探勘；羅吉斯迴歸分析；管理；數量方法；Data mining；Logistic regression；Management；Quantitative methods
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:5
  • 共同引用共同引用:24
  • 點閱點閱:112
本研究之主要目的在於利用資料探勘中之人工類神經網路方式來建構美國職棒大聯盟的勝隊預測模式。研究對象則是洋基隊與紅襪隊在2006年至2012年共127場例行賽，所有例行賽中的各項變數，包括主客場球隊、主客場先發投手之左右投狀況、主客場先發投手上一場之變數、主客場打擊群上一場之變數、賽事時間、比賽時之華氏溫度等共60個自變數。同時，本研究也以兩隊在2013年球季的比賽進行迴溯分析來驗證模式的準確度。除了人工類神經網路外，本研究也利用羅吉斯迴歸分析來建構兩隊的預測模式，並進一步探討上述兩種工具所建構之模式的差異與良窳。研究結果顯示，以人工類神經網路所建構出來的預測模式，其勝隊預測準確率較高，達72.22%；本研究也利用2013年的比賽來驗證模式的預測績效，結果預測正確率達73.68%。本研究結論：由於本研究將「運動」、「運動產業」結合「管理」、「數量方法」、「資料探勘」等領域，並提供了投注者一個精確、簡易合理的解決途徑來預測勝隊。所以建議使用人工類神經網路來預測 勝隊是一項值得信賴的工具。
The purpose of this study was to construct the winner predictive model in Major League Baseball (MLB) by using the artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a tool. One hundred and twenty-six games from the seasons of 2006 to 2012 held between New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox teams were involved in this study, and 60 variables were collected to analyze. Meanwhile, the winner predictive model was applied to the season of 2013 games to verify the model accuracy by virtual bets. In addition to ANNs, logistic regression was also used to develop the winner predictive model to discuss the differences, and to explore the advantages and disadvantages between these two tools. The results showed that ANNs-based predictive model had 72.22% of winning accuracy. Moreover, for the season of 2013 games between Yankees and Red Sox teams were used by way of virtual bets to test the model's accuracy, and the results showed 73.68% of accuracy. Because of combined many areas, such as sports, sports industry, management and quantitative methods, and also equipped the ability of data mining, our findings provided an accurate, simple and reasonable way to predict the winning team for bettors. Therefore, the use of ANNs model was recommended as a suitable tool to predict the winning team.
期刊論文
1.李一中(1993)。術業有專攻。中華職業棒球雜誌，82。  延伸查詢new window
2.Bayardo, R. J.、Rakesh, A.、Dimitrios, G.(1999)。Constraint-based rule mining in large, dense databases。Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery，4(2/3)，217-240。  new window
3.Lee, J. R.、Hsueh, S. L.、Tseng, H. P.(2008)。Utilizing data mining to discover knowledge in construction enterprise performance records。Journal of Civil Engineering and Management，14(2)，79-84。  new window
4.Piatetsky-Shapiro, G.(1994)。An overview of knowledge discovery in databases: Recent progress and challenges。Rough Sets, Fuzzy Sets and Knowledge Discovery-Proceedings of the International Workshop on Rough Sets and Knowledge Discovery，93，1-10。  new window
5.Stijn, V.、Richard, A.、Bart, B.、Guido, D.(2002)。A comparison of state-of-the art classification techniques for expert automobile insurance claim fraud detection。The Journal of Risk and Insurance，69(3)，373-421。  new window
6.李沃牆、丁榮光(20041200)。自用車車體險核保系統之建構--臺灣地區之實證研究。保險專刊，20(2)，113-130。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Huang, C-S”、Dorsey,R. E.、Boose.M.A.(1994)。Life Insurer Financial Distress Prediction: Neural Network Model。Journal of Insurance Regulation，13(2)，131-167。  new window
8.Grupe, F. H.、Owrang, M. M.(1995)。Data base mining discovering new knowledge and competitive advantage。Information Systems Management，12(4)，26-31。  new window
9.陳錦村、許通安、林蔓蓁(19960700)。銀行授信客戶違約風險之預測。管理科學學報，13(2)，173-195。  延伸查詢new window
10.廖文男、林啟川、高英傑、彭國平(20031200)。棒球投手球路與速度之分析--以2001年世界盃成棒賽為例。北體學報，11，87-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Matheus, C. J.、Chan, P. K.、Piatetsky-Shapiro, G.(1993)。Systems for knowledge discovery in databases。IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering，5(6)，903-913。  new window
12.Boritz, J. Efrim、Kennedy, D. B.(1995)。Effectiveness of Neural Network Types for Prediction of Business Failure。Expert System with Applications，9(4)，503-512。  new window
13.Lin, Shun-Lan(1996)。Financial distress classification in the life insurance industry。Journal of Insurance Regulation，14(3)，314-342。  new window
14.Hui, S. C.、Jha, G.(2000)。Data mining for customer service support。Information and Management，38(1)，1-13。  new window
15.McKee, T. E.、Lensberg, T.(2002)。Genetic programming and rough sets: a hybrid approach to bankruptcy classification。European Journal of Operational Research，138(2)，436-451。  new window
16.Brockett, Patrick L.、Cooper, William W.、Golden, Linda L.、Pitaktong, U.(1994)。A neural network method for obtaining an early warning of insurer insolvency。The Journal of Risk and Insurance，61(3)，402-424。  new window
17.高英傑、劉強(20071200)。臺灣之星--王建民在2005年和2006年大聯盟棒球季投球表現之比較。運動教練科學，9，187-196。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.陳志成、陳天賜(20090500)。2008年中華職棒大聯盟先發投手投球技術定位之研究--多元尺度法之應用。輔仁大學體育學刊，8，109-125。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Berry, D.、Hartigan, J. A.(19930900)。Choice models for predicting divisional winners in major league baseball。Journal of the American Statistical Association，88(423)，766-774。  new window
20.Bradley, P. S.、Fayyad, U. M.、Mangasarian, O. L.,(1999)。Mathematical programming for data mining: formulations and challenges。Journal on Computing，11(3)，217-238。  new window
21.Chen, C. C.、Lin, M. L.、Lee, Y. T.、Chen, T. T.、Tseng, C.(2010)。Best starting pitcher of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2009。World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology，72，322-324。  new window
22.Koh, Hian Chye、Chan, Kin Leong Gerry(2002)。Data mining and customer relationship marketing in the banking industry。Singapore Management Review，24(2)，1-27。  new window
23.Fayyad, U. M.、Piatetsky-Shapiro, G.、Smyth, Padhraic、The, K. D. D.(1996)。Process for Extracting Useful Knowledge from Volumes of Data。Communications of the ACM，39(11)，27-33。  new window
24.Yoshida, T.、Touzaki, H.(1999)。A study on association among dispatching rules in manufacturing scheduling problems。IEEE International Conference on Emerging Technologies and Factory Automation，2(2)，1355-1360。  new window
25.Vellido, Alfredo、Lisboa, Paulo J. G.、Vaughan, J.(1999)。Neural networks in business: A survey of applications (1992-1998)。Expert Systems with Applications，17(1)，51-70。  new window
26.Umstattd, R.(1975)。The changing strike zoon。Athletic Journal，44-53。  new window
27.Liao, S. H.、Chen, C. M.、Wu, C. H.(2008)。Mining customer knowledge for product line and brand extension in retailing。Expert Systems with Applications，35(3)，1763-1776。  new window
28.Kusiak, A.(2000)。Decomposition in data mining: an industrial case study。IEEE Transactions on Electronics Packaging Manufacturing，23(4)，345-353。  new window
29.Fish, K. E.、Barnes, J. H.、Aiken, M. W.(1995)。Artificial neural networks: A new methodology for industrial market segmentation。Industrial Marketing Management，24(5)，431-438。  new window
30.Zhang, Guoqiang、Patuwo, B. Eddy、Hu, Michael Y.(1998)。Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art。International Journal of Forecasting，14(1)，35-62。  new window
31.Fayyad, Usama M.、Piatetsky-Shapiro, Gregory、Smyth, Padhraic(1996)。From Data Mining to Knowledge Discovery in Databases。AI Magazine，17(3)，37-54。  new window
32.Lee, Hoon-Young、Jo, Hongkyu、Han, Ingoo(1997)。Bankruptcy prediction using case-based reasoning, neural networks, and discriminant analysis。Expert Systems with Applications，13(2)，97-108。  new window
會議論文
1.Boonyanunta, N.、Zeephongsekul, P.(2000)。State of the art credit risk analysis model: Comparative analysis between statistical approaches and neural network approaches。Fifth Conference of the Association of Asian-Pacific Operations Research Societies within IFORS。  new window
2.Ben-Arieh, D.、Chopra, M.、Bleyberg, M. Z.(1998)。Data Mining Application for Real-Time Distributed Shop Floor Control。1998 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics，2738-2743。  new window
學位論文
1.紀家維(2004)。應用脊迴歸分析於資料採礦預測系統之研究(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.孫恬琳(2004)。應用資料探勘技術於汽車保險購買行為之研究(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.林光宏(2007)。棒球投手(碩士論文)。國立體育學院。  延伸查詢new window
4.高英傑(1998)。棒球(碩士論文)。國立體育學院。  延伸查詢new window
5.馬中驍(1996)。台灣地區壽險業清償能力預警模型--LOGIT與類神經網路之應用(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.陳怡妃(2008)。新興分類技術於行為評等模式之建構(博士論文)。輔仁大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.陳怡君(2005)。資料探勘顧客取得模式之建構--以某健康休閒俱樂部為例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.陳贊仁(2009)。以倒傳遞網路設計籃球運動彩券推薦模式(碩士論文)。大同大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.黃正鳳(2002)。整合類神經網路與多元適應性雲形迴歸於資料探勘分類模式之應用(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
10.陳麒文(2002)。健康休閒俱樂部顧客流失分析模式之研究(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Vesta Services(1998)。Qnet 97--Neural network modeling for windows 95/98/NT。Winnetka, IL：Vesta Services。  new window
2.Weaver, E.(1984)。Weaver on strategy。New York：Scribner Paper Fiction。  new window
3.姚立業(1993)。棒球攻守術。台北：世豐。  延伸查詢new window
4.Cabena, Peter(1998)。Discovering Data Mining: From Concept to Implementation。Discovering Data Mining: From Concept to Implementation。Upper Saddle River, N.J.。  new window
5.Adair, R. K.(1990)。The Physics of Baseball。New York：HarperCollins Publishers Inc。  new window
6.Freeman, James A.、Skapura, David M.(1992)。Neural networks algorithms, applications, and programming techniques。Addison-Wesley Publishing Company。  new window
7.Berry, Michael J. A.、Linoff, Gordon S.(1997)。Data Mining Techniques for Marketing, Sales and Customer Support。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
8.Groth, R.(1998)。Data Mining: A Hands-on Approach for Business Professionals。Upper Saddle River, NJ：Prentice Hall。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
無相關點閱
 
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：909（臺灣：889，外國：20） ／ 本年度總使用人次：2516201 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：68315577
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上