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題名:配對交易策略績效探討--以臺積電、聯電為例
書刊名:管理實務與理論研究
作者:蔡麗茹 引用關係黃凱文陳美菁 引用關係林容如 引用關係
作者(外文):Tsai, Li-juHuang, Kai-wenChen, Mei-chingLin, Jung-ju
出版日期:2014
卷期:8:2
頁次:頁70-90
主題關鍵詞:配對交易股價比均數復歸共整合門檻單根Pairs tradingPrice ratioMean reversionCointegrationThreshold unit root
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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投資人可利用配對交易策略進行套利,典型配對交易假設兩家高度相關公司之股價存在穩定的相對關係,短期股價偏離具有均數復歸(mean-reverting)性質,因此藉由同時買進價格偏低的股票以及賣出價格偏高的股票即可獲取價差利潤。然而由於內外在因素的快速變遷,原先高度相關的兩公司股價,其股價偏離可能在某段期間失去均數復歸的性質,而導致典型配對交易無法獲致價差利潤。由於股價偏離未必總能均數復歸,本研究利用Caner and Hansen(2001)的門檻單根檢定法,設計門檻單根交易策略。本研究以台積電與聯電兩公司股票為樣本,資料期間為西元2000年1月1日至2010年12月31日,共計2743筆日資料。本研究探討的配對交易策略包括:只考量技術面資訊的股價比交易策略、同時考量基本面資訊的條件式股價比交易策略、股價存在共整合時的誤差修正交易策略、以及不預設股價偏離具備均數復歸性質的門檻單根交易策略。實證結果發現,門檻單根交易策略最能有效地掌握股價偏離性質,並獲得最高的報酬。
The one-on-one pair trading strategy is commonly used for arbitrage. The pair trading targets are usually chosen from two products or companies with highly business-related in the same industry/market, and then obtaining profits from arbitrage according to the information of the fundamentals and stock price changes of the two investment targets. The arbitrage strategies are highly based on the assumption that the deviations from the relative stock prices changes are mean reverting. However, the life cycles of products are getting shorter and shorter, and the development of new technologies are quite rapid. The deviations between the originally stable relative prices may not be always mean reverting. This paper utilizes the threshold unit root model developed by Caner and Hansen (2001) to find the threshold values and the appropriate arbitrage strategies. We use TSMC and UMC as the sample companies to compare the performances among a variety of pair trading strategies. The sample period covers 2,743 daily trading data starting from January 1st, 2000 to December 31th, 2010. The trading strategies include: (1) the technical trading strategy based on the price ratio of the two investment targets, (2) the modified technical trading strategy based on both the price ratio and the fundamental information, (3) the cointegration trading strategy executed when the values of the error correction term excessively deviate from its mean value if the two companies' share prices are cointegrated; (4) the threshold unit root trading strategy executed when the deviations of the stock prices are nonlinearly unit root based on the threshold unit root model .This article investigates the performance of the above four trading strategies. The empirical results show that the strategy based on the threshold unit root model is the most profitable among the four pair trading strategies.
期刊論文
1.Elliott, Robert J.、Van Der Hoek, John、Malcolm, William P.(2005)。Pairs trading。Quantitative Finance,5(3),271-276。  new window
2.Ehrman, D.(2004)。Pairs trading: New look at an old strategy. Futures: News, Analysis & Strategies for Futures。Options & Derivatives Traders,33(6),32-34。  new window
3.Grinold, R. C.、Kahn, R. N.(2000)。The efficiency gains of long-short investing。Financial Analysts Journal,56(6),40-53。  new window
4.Jacobs, B. I.、Levy, K. N.(1993)。Long/short equity investing。Journal of Portfolio Management,20(1),52-63。  new window
5.Caner, Mehmet、Hansen, Bruce E.(2001)。Threshold autoregression with a unit root。Econometrica,69(6),1555-1596。  new window
6.Hansen, Bruce E.、Seo, Byeongseon(2002)。Testing for Two-Regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-Correction Models。Journal of Econometrics,110(2),293-318。  new window
7.沈中華、邱志豪(19990800)。交易成本,GDR與股價的套利--門檻共整合應用。中國財務學刊,7(2),89-112。new window  延伸查詢new window
8.Balke, N. S.、Fomby, T. B.(1997)。Threshold Cointegration。International Economic Review,38(3),627-645。  new window
9.Beaver, William H.、Lambert, Richard、Ryan, Stephen G.(1987)。The Information Content of Security Prices: A Second Look。Journal of Accounting and Economics,9(2),139-157。  new window
10.Johansen, Søren(1988)。Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2/3),231-254。  new window
11.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica,55(2),251-276。  new window
學位論文
1.李勇儀(2008)。產業內股價連動效應及其衍生之投資策略研究(碩士論文)。雲林科技大學,雲林。  延伸查詢new window
2.黃俊凱(2008)。價差變化與投資行為之分析-台股期貨與現貨之實證研究(碩士論文)。輔仁大學,新北。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉建國(2006)。低風險交易策略與超額報酬--以配對交易為例(碩士論文)。樹德科技大學,高雄。  延伸查詢new window
4.羅君昱(2006)。台灣股票市場執行統計套利之可行性分析(碩士論文)。國立政治大學,台北。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Vidyamurthy, Ganapathy(2004)。Pairs Trading: Quantitative Methods and Analysis。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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