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題名：整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式之建立--以新北市汐止區為例
書刊名：建築學報
作者：沈哲緯／何明錦 引用關係／辜炳寰／冀樹勇／陳致向
作者(外文)：Shen, Che-wei／Ho, Ming-chin／Ku, Bing-huan／Chi, Shue-yeong／Chen, Chih-hsiang
出版日期：2015
卷期：91
頁次：頁141-166
主題關鍵詞：整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式；極端降雨；災害衝擊；調適策略；Integrated model of landslide and debris flow；ILDF；Extreme rainfall；Hazard impact；Adaptation strategy
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
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本研究旨於研提整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式，據此探討極端降雨對山坡地社區之衝擊。研究區域以新北市汐止區為例，以二元迴歸模式（logistic regression）建立廣域崩塌潛勢評估模式，輔以土壤厚度經驗式推估崩塌體積，將崩塌體積視為土石流發生重要因子，結合Hunt's模式模擬土石流動境況，建立「整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式」，考量汐止區極端水文事件納莉颱風及現行水利署公開之氣候變遷A1B情境雨量，分別探討各種極端降雨情境對山坡地衝擊程度，提供主管機關進行詳細調查、監測管理及災害調適策略研擬參考，期防患於未然，減少災害發生之損失。
Integrated Model of Landslide and Debris Flow (ILDF) was proposed to explore the impact of hillside residential communities under extreme rainfall scenarios in this study. Taking the Xizhi District of New Taipei City as an example, the study would establish (1) an assessment model for landslide susceptibility by logistic regression; (2) an estimation of landslide volume with soil depth empirical formula; (3) integration of landslide volume and debris flow to develop the ILDF. The impact of hillside under different extreme rainfall scenarios, such as Typhoon Nari and the rainfall prediction model of climate change (A1B scenario of Water Resources Agency) were discussed. The results of this study could serve as a reference to central and local governments for field investigation, monitoring and adaptation planning.
期刊論文
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2.Carrara, A.(1983)。Multivariate Models for Landslide Hazard Evaluation。Mathmatical Geology，15，403-426。  new window
3.Lee, S.、Min, K.(2001)。Statistical Analysis of Landslide Susceptibility at Yongin, Korea。Environmental Geology，40(9)，1095-1113。  new window
4.Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Detti, R.、Guzzetti, F.、Pasqui, V.、Reichenbach, P.(1991)。GIS techniques and statistical models in evaluation landslide hazard。Earth Surface Processes and Landforms，16，427-445。  new window
5.Carrara, A.、Guzzetti, F.、Cardinali, M.、Reichenbach, P.(1999)。Use of GIS technology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard。Natural Hazards，20，117-135。  new window
6.De Blasio, F. V.、Breien, H.、Elverhøi, A.(2010)。Modelling a cohesive -frictional debris flow: An experimental, theoretical, and field-based study。Earth Surface Processes and Landforms，36，753-766。  new window
7.Chiang, S. H.、Chang, K. T.、Mondini, A. C.、Tsai, B. W.、Chen, C. Y.(2012)。Simulation of event-based landslides and debris flows at watershed level。Geomorphology，138(1)，306-318。  new window
8.Chen, C. Y.、Yu, F. C.(2011)。Morphometric analysis of debris flows and their source areas using GIS。Geomorphology，129(3/4)，387-397。  new window
9.Chang, K.、Chiang, S.(2009)。An integrated model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides。Geomorphology，105(3)，366-373。  new window
10.Guthrie, R. H.、Hockin, A.、Colquhoun, L.、Nagy, T.、Evans, S. G.、Ayles, C.(2010)。An examination of controls on debris flow mobility: Evidence from coastal British Columbia。Geomorphology，114(4)，601-613。  new window
11.Iovine, G.、D'Ambrosio, D.、Gergorio, S.(2005)。Applying genetic algorithms for calibrating a hexagonal cellular automatamodel for the simulation of debris flows characterised by strong inertial effects。Geomorphology，66(1-4)，287-303。  new window
12.Hearn, G. J.(1995)。Landslide and erosion hazard mapping at Ok Tedi Cooper Mine。The Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology，28，47-60。  new window
13.Hunt, B.(1994)。Newtonian fluid mechanics treatment of debris flow and avalanches。Journal of Hydraulic Engineering-ASCE，120，1350-1363。  new window
14.Kappes, M. S.、Malet, J. P.、Remaître, A.、Horton, P.、Jaboyedoff, M.、Bell, R.(2011)。Assessment of debris-flow susceptibility at medium-scale in the Barcelonnette Basin, France。Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，11，627-641。  new window
15.Lin, C.、Hsu, H.、Sheng, Y.、Kuo, C.、Liou, Y.(2010)。Mesoscale processes for super heavy rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Over southern Taiwan。Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions，10，13495-13517。  new window
16.Pirulli, M.(2010)。On the use of the calibration-based approach for debris-flow forward analyses。Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences，10，1009-1019。  new window
17.Takahashi, T.、Nakagawa, H.、Harada, T.、Yamashiki, Y.(1992)。Routing debris flows with particle segregation。Journal of Hydraulic Engineering，118(11)，1490-1507。  new window
18.Wang, C.、Esaki, T.、Xie, M.、Qiu, C.(2006)。Landslide and debris-flow hazard analysis and prediction using GIS in Minamata-Hougawachi area, Japan。Environmental Geology，51，91-102。  new window
19.Wu, Y. H.、Liu K. F.、Chen, Y. C.(2013)。Comparison between FLO-2D and Debris-2D on the Application of Assessment of Granular Debris Flow Hazards with Case Study。Journal of Mountain Science，10(2)，293-304。  new window
20.Xie, M.、Esaki, T.、Zhou, G.(2004)。GIS-based probabilistic mapping of landslide hazard using a three-dimensional deterministic model。Natural Hazards，33，265-282。  new window
21.Beven, K. J.、Kirkby, M. J.(1979)。A physically based variable contributing area model of basin hydrology。Hydrological Sciences Bulletin，24，43-69。  new window
22.Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Detti, R.、Guzzetti, F.(1992)。Uncertainty in assessing landslide hazard and risk。ITC Journal，2，172-183。  new window
23.Guzzetti, F.、Ardizzone, F.、Cardinali, M.、Rossi, M.、Valigi, D.(2009)。Landslide volumes and landslide mobilization rates in Umbria, central Italy。Earth and Planetary Science Letters，279，222-229。  new window
24.Guzzetti, F.、Reichenbach, P.、Cardinali, M.、Galli, M.、Ardizzone, F.(2005)。Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale。Geomorphology，72(1-4)，272-299。  new window
25.Koukis, G.、Ziourkas, C.(1991)。Slope Instability Phenomena in Greece: A Statistical Analysis。Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment，43，47-60。  new window
26.Tarboton, D. G.(1997)。A new method for the determination of flow directions and upslope areas in grid digital elevation models。Water Resource Research，33(2)，309-319。  new window
27.Guzzetti, F.、Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Reichenbach, P.(1999)。Landslide hazard evaluation: A review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy。Geomorphology，31(1-4)，181-216。  new window
會議論文
1.劉進金、翁勳政、黃金鴻、楊明宗(2001)。豪雨型崩塌地之遙測影像分析。二十一世紀土木工程技術與管理研討會。新竹縣：明新技術學院土木系。C23-C33。  延伸查詢new window
2.Carrara, A.(1988)。Landslide hazard mapping by statistical methods: A "black box" approach。Workshop on Natural Disasters in European Mediterranean Countries, Perugia, Italy，Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Perugia 。Perugia, Italy：Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche。205-224。  new window
3.Yin, K. L.、Yan, T. Z.(1988)。Statistical prediction models for slope instability of metamorphosed rocks。The 5th International Symposium on Landslides。Lausanne, Switzerland：Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Landslides。1269-1272。  new window
4.Carrara, A.、Cardinali, M.、Detti, R.、Guzzetti, F.、Pasqui, V.、Reichenbach, P.(1990)。Geographical information systems and multivariate models in landslide hazard evaluation。ALPS 90 Alpine Landslide Practial Seminar, Sixth International Conference and Field Workshop on Landslides。Milan, IT：Universita degli Studi de Milano。17-28。  new window
5.Gao, J.、Lo, C. P.(1991)。GIS Modeling of influence of topography and morphology on landslide occurrence in Nelson County。GIS/LIS '91。Virginia：American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, American Congress on Surveying and Mapping。954-963。  new window
研究報告
1.內政部建築研究所(2013)。極端降雨對山坡地社區衝擊程度探討及其調適策略之研究（一）--以鄉鎮尺度為例。新北市：內政部建築研究所。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院農委會水土保持局(2010)。坡地崩塌及土石流動態預測模式雛形開發。南投縣：行政院農委會水土保持局。  延伸查詢new window
3.行政院農委會林務局(2013)。國有林莫拉克風災土砂二次災害潛勢影響評估（期末報告）。台北市：行政院農委會林務局。  延伸查詢new window
4.財團法人中興工程顧問社(2011)。易淹水地區上游集水區地質調查與資料庫建置（第3期100年度）--集水區水文地質對坡地穩定性影響之調查評估計畫（1/3）。新北市：經濟部中央地質調查所。  延伸查詢new window
5.財團法人中興工程顧問社(2013)。極端降雨對本市山坡地住宅邊坡崩塌潛感評估及聚落警戒雨量驗證委託專業服務研究案（期中報告）。台北市：台北市政府工務局。  延伸查詢new window
6.經濟部中央地質調查所(2007)。地質敏感區災害潛勢評估與監測--都會區周緣坡地山崩潛勢評估（1/4）。新北市：經濟部中央地質調查所。  延伸查詢new window
7.經濟部中央地質調查所(2008)。地質敏感區災害潛勢評估與監測--都會區周緣坡地山崩潛勢評估（2/4）。新北市：經濟部中央地質調查所。  延伸查詢new window
8.經濟部中央地質調查所(2009)。地質敏感區災害潛勢評估與監測--都會區周緣坡地山崩潛勢評估（3/4）。新北市：經濟部中央地質調查所。  延伸查詢new window
9.經濟部中央地質調查所(2010)。地質敏感區災害潛勢評估與監測--都會區周緣坡地山崩潛勢評估（4/4）。新北市：經濟部中央地質調查所。  延伸查詢new window
10.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所(2012)。淡水河流域因應氣候變遷防洪及土砂研究計畫（1/2）。台中市：經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所。  延伸查詢new window
11.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所(2013)。淡水河流域因應氣候變遷防洪及土砂研究計畫（2/2）。台中市：經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所。  延伸查詢new window
12.Griswold, J. P.、Iverson, R. M.(2008)。Mobility and statistics and automated hazard mapping for debris flows and rock avalanches。U.S.：U.S. Geological Survey。  new window
13.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(2013)。Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis。Stockholm, Sweden：NY, USA：IPCC：Cambridge University Press。  new window
圖書
1.經濟部中央地質調查所(2006)。都會區及周緣坡地環境地質資料庫圖集說明書。新北市：經濟部中央地質調查所。  延伸查詢new window
2.Jackson, J. A.(1997)。Glossary of Geology。VA, USA：American Geological Institute。  new window
3.Wilson, J. P.、Gallant, J. C.(2000)。Terrain Analysis: Principles and Applications。NY, USA：John Wiley & Sons。  new window
4.Menard, Scott W.(2002)。Applied Logistic Regression Analysis。Thousand Oaks, Calif：Sage Publication。  new window
 
 
 
 
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