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題名:上市公司股價報酬率決定因子之研究
書刊名:管理資訊計算
作者:陳祐祥曹慧華黃秀珍
作者(外文):Chen, You-shyangTsao, Huei-huaHuang, Hsiu-chen
出版日期:2017
卷期:6:特刊4
頁次:頁1-9
主題關鍵詞:分類器財務報表屬性選擇股價報酬率ClassifiersFinancial statementsAttribute selectionReturn rate of stock price
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:13
在波幅震盪股市裡,公司無預警倒閉下市造成投資人嚴重損失,是現今公司在企業經營、決策管理及個人理財應重視的課題。本研究透過電腦萃取有效上市公司的財務資料,運用財務變數準確預測股價報酬率,從雜亂無章的交易資料中抽絲剝繭找出蛛絲馬跡,轉成有用知識,進而作出正確的決策,能協助公司及投資人規避風險提高獲利空間。本研究經由台灣股票上市公司選擇六個不同產業的財務報表,資料收集自台灣經濟新報金融財經網站TEJ資料庫,財報中挑選條件屬性25個和1個決策屬性-股價報酬率。運用屬性選擇建立模型和不同分類器評估,如堆疊集成(Stacking)、簡易貝氏分類器(Naive Bayes)及徑向相基底函數類神經網路(Radial-Basis-Function Network)三項評估績效。找出影響股價報酬率之重要決策因子,提高預測的正確度。實證結果為流動負債、利息保障倍數、每股營業利益為影響股價報酬率之重要決策因子;再者,對財務資料言,使用分類器不同則得到不同的績效衡量。
In the volatility of the stock market, the company did not return to the market caused by a serious loss of investors, is the company in the business, decision-making management and personal finance should pay attention to the subject. This study uses the computer to extract the financial information of the effective listed companies, use the financial variables to accurately predict the return rate of stock price from the chaos of the transaction information in the spinning to find clues into useful knowledge, and then make the right decisions to help companies and investors to avoid risk raising profit margins. In this research, we study the data from the Taiwan’s listed companies in six different industries of financial statements, based on the Taiwan Economic Journl (TEJ) online financial database. In the financial statement data, 25 condition attributes and one decision attribute - return rate of stock price - are selected. Using attribute selection to establish models and different classifier evaluations, such as Stacked Integration (Stacking), Naive Bayes (NB) and Radial-Basis-Function Network (RBF Network) three assessment performance. Find out the important decision factors that affect the return rate of stock price, and improve the correctness of the forecast. The empirical results are current liabilities, interest protection multiple and earnings per share business interestare important determinants that affect the return rate of stock price. From the empirical results, use different classifiers for financial data has different performance measures.
期刊論文
1.Altman, E. I.(1968)。Fincial rations, discriminant and the prsdiction of corporate bankruptcy。Journal of Finance,23(4),589-609。  new window
2.Figueroa, A.、Neumann, G.(2014)。Category-specific models for ranking effective paraphrases in community question answering。Expert Systems with Applications,41(10),4730-4742。  new window
3.Bermingham, M. L.、Pong-Wong, R.、Spiliopoulou, A.、Hayward, C.、Rudan, I.、Campbell, H.、Haley, C. S.(2015)。Application of high-dimensional feature selection: evaluation for genomic prediction in man。Scientific Reports,5(10312),1-12。  new window
4.Wolpert, D. H.(1992)。Stacked Generalization。Neural Networks,5(2),241-259。  new window
5.Keerthika, G.、Priya, D. S.(2015)。Feature Subset evaluation and classification using Naive Bayes classifier。Journal of Network Communications and Emerging Technologies,1(1),27-32。  new window
6.Ou, Jane A.、Penman, Stephen H.(1989)。Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Stock Returns。Journal of Accounting and Economics,11(4),295-329。  new window
學位論文
1.張萬鈞(2008)。以分類、迴歸、聚類、關聯四種資料探勘方法建立選股模型--台灣股市之實證研究(碩士論文)。中華大學,新竹市。  延伸查詢new window
2.吳欣儒(2011)。資料探勘技術於病人疼痛自控裝置之應用與分析(碩士論文)。國立交通大學,新竹市。  延伸查詢new window
3.白忠和(2014)。應用分類方法於預測ERP系統之採用--以IC設計業為例(碩士論文)。華夏技術學院,新北市。  延伸查詢new window
4.胡坤德(1995)。從價值創新觀點做重整策略變革之研究(碩士論文)。義守大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.蔡逸珊(2014)。資料探勘應用於戶外用品實體與虛擬通路推薦機制之研究(碩士論文)。淡江大學,新北市。  延伸查詢new window
6.蔡珗怡(2011)。以探索性資料分析方法發展心臟血管疾病臨床輔助預知模型(碩士論文)。國立臺北護理健康大學,台北市。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.葉怡成(2006)。類神經網路--方法應用與實作。臺北:儒林書局。  延伸查詢new window
2.Liu, H.、Motoda, H.(1998)。Feature selection for knowledge discovery and data mining。Kluwer Academic Publishers。  new window
3.李祖培(2007)。財務報表分析。三民出版社。  延伸查詢new window
4.鄭丁旺(2014)。中級會計學。  延伸查詢new window
5.Noreen, Eric W.、Brewer, Peter C.、Garrison, Ray H.(2013)。Managerial accounting for managers。  new window
其他
1.IFRS Foundation(2012)。About the IFRS Foundation and the ISAB,www.ifrs.org/。  new window
圖書論文
1.Du, K. L.、Swamy, M. N. S.(2014)。Radial basis function networks。Neural Networks and Statistical Learning。London:Springer。  new window
 
 
 
 
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