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題名:演化式人工智慧建立專案實獲完工工期推論模式之研究
書刊名:建築學報
作者:鄭明淵張于漢Prayogo, Doddy吳建燁
作者(外文):Cheng, Min-yuanChang, Yu-hanWu, Jiuan-ye
出版日期:2018
卷期:104
頁次:頁73-87
主題關鍵詞:工期預測實獲值管理SOS-LSSVMPredictionDurationEarned value management
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:4
施工過程中,受限於環境、天氣等眾多因素影響,造成完工工期經常難以準確掌控,施工單位在預測工期時,必須仰賴過去之經驗,無法即時反映影響工期之因素並利用工程現況客觀地預測完工工期。本研究以建築工程之建築物完工工期為研究標的,不包含機電、裝修工程等工期,應用演化式人工智慧作為推論模式之核心SOS-LSSVM(Symbiotic Organisms Search-Least Squares Support Vector Machine),透過案例學習發展建立專案實獲完工工期推論模式找出每期輸入變數與待完工成本之間的映射關係,進而計算預估完工工期(Estimate Schedule At Completion, ESAC)。藉此作為施工過程中作為時程管控的參考依據,以達到提前預警的目的。結果顯示本研究發展之模式RMSE低於0.03、MAPE低於10%、MAE低於3%及相關係數達0.99,相較傳統實獲值工期預測及其他人工智慧模式具較佳預測準確率。經實際案例分析對於管理者能夠有效進行時程之管控且降低工程成本。
Because of factors such as the environment and weather during a construction process, accurate control of schedule at completion (SAC) is often difficult. Builders must rely on past experience to predict the project duration. Thus, they often cannot react punctually to factors affecting the construction duration or predict objectively the SAC by using the project's current progress. This study developed an SAC inference model for building structure using the basis evolutionary artificial intelligence - Symbiotic Organisms Search-Least Squares Support Vector Machine (SOS-LSSVM). Through training with these historical cases, it was used to map the relationships between the input variables and the cost of construction work to be completed. The learning results indicated good performance, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of less than 0.03, a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of less than 10% , d a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 3% and a correlation of 0.99, proving the SOS-LSSVM model as more reliable than the currently prevailing method. In case study, the proposed model for provides more accurate results for assisting managers with schedule and cost management.
期刊論文
1.Cheng, M. Y.、Wu, Y. W.(2009)。Evolutionary support vector machine inference system for construction management。Automation in Construction,18,597-604。  new window
2.Vandevoorde, Stephan、Vanhoucke, Mario(2006)。A Comparison of Different Project Duration Forecasting Methods using Earned Value Metrics。International Journal of Project Management,24(4),289-302。  new window
3.Chan, Daniel W. M.、Kumaraswamy, M. M.(1996)。An evaluation of construction time performance in the building industry。Building and Environment,31(6),569-578。  new window
4.Kass, G. V.(1980)。An Exploratory Technique for Investigating Large Quantities of Categorical Data。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics,29(2),119-127。  new window
5.Anbari, F.(2003)。Earned Value Method and Extensions。Project Manage Journal,34(4),12-23。  new window
6.Cheng, M. Y.、Hoang, N. D.、Wu, Y. W.(2013)。Hybrid intelligence approach based on LS-SVM and differential evolution for construction cost index estimation: A Taiwan case study。Automation in Construction,35,306-313。  new window
7.Cheng, M. Y.、Chiu, C. K.、Chiu, Y. F.、Wu, Y. W.、Syu, Z. L.、Prayogo, D.、Lin, C. H.(2014)。SOS Optimization Model for Bridge Life Cycle Risk Evaluation and Maintenance Strategies。Journal of the Chinese Institute of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,26(4),293-308。  new window
8.Cheng, M. Y.、Prayogo, D.(2014)。Symbiotic Organisms Search: A New Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithm。Computers & Structures,139,98-112。  new window
9.Kaming, P. F.、Olomolaiye, P. O.、Holt, G. D.、Harris, F. C.(1997)。Factors influencing construction time and cost overruns on high-rise projects in Indonesia。Construction Management and Economics,15,83-94。  new window
10.Jacob, D.(2003)。Forecasting Project Schedule Completion with Earned Value Metrics。The Measurable News,1,7-9。  new window
11.Henderson, K.(2004)。Further Developments in Earned Schedule。The Measurable News,2004(Spring),15-6-20-2。  new window
12.Cheng, M. Y.、Prayogo, D.、Tran, D. H.(2015)。Optimizing Multiple-Resources Leveling in Multiple Projects Using Discrete Symbiotic Organisms Search。Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering,30(3),04015036。  new window
13.Lin, M. C.、Tserng, H. P.、Ho, S. P.、Young, D. L.(2011)。Developing a construction-duration model based on a historical dataset for building project。Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,17(4),529-539。  new window
14.Lipke, W.(2003)。Schedule is different。The Measurable News,2003(Summer),31-34。  new window
15.Nkado, R. N.(1995)。Construction time-influencing factors: The contractor's perspective。Construction Management and Economics,13(1),81-89。  new window
16.Tran, D. H.、Cheng, M. Y.、Prayogo, D.(2016)。A Novel Multiple Objective Symbiotic Organisms Search (MOSOS) for Time-Cost-Labor Utilization Tradeoff Problem。Knowledge-Based Systems,94,132-145。  new window
會議論文
1.Shi, H. W.、Li, W. Q.(2009)。The Grey Relational Analysis on Building Construction Duration Cases。International Conference on Future Bio Medical Information Engineering。  new window
學位論文
1.李宗憲(2008)。實獲值管理在工程專案管理之應用改進研究(碩士論文)。國立成功大學,臺南市。  延伸查詢new window
2.林哲宏(2010)。論製造業運用實獲值管理技術–以鞋類大底廠為例(碩士論文)。國立中正大學,嘉義縣。  延伸查詢new window
3.Chan, W. M.(1998)。Modelling Construction Durations for Public Housing Projects in Hong Kong(博士論文)。The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong。  new window
4.吳宏興(2015)。An Innovative Parameter-Free Symbiotic Organisms Search (SOS) for Solving Construction-Engineering Problems(博士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學,Taipei。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Breiman, L.、Friedman, J.、Olshen, R.、Stone, C.(1984)。Classification and Regression Trees。Chapman & Hall/CRC。  new window
2.曾清枝(2014)。專案管理:以系統手法管理專案。臺北市:雙葉書廊。  延伸查詢new window
3.Suykens, J.(2002)。Least Square Support Vector Machines。World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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