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題名：應用羅吉斯迴歸建立油輪重大意外事故預測模型
書刊名：航運季刊
作者：韓子健 引用關係／王志敏／洪亦萱
作者(外文)：Han, Tzeu-chen／Wang, Chih-ming／Hung, I-hsuan
出版日期：2017
卷期：26:4
頁次：頁103-119
主題關鍵詞：羅吉斯迴歸模型；意外事故；全損；Logistic regression model；Tanker accident；Total-loss
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:4
本研究應用羅吉斯迴歸模型，調查嚴重之油輪事故原因，統計數據來自1980至2010年期間國際海事組織的全球綜合航運信息系統。研究主要目的在辨識導致油輪全損的事故之實質危險因素分析，發現油輪類型和事故的類型具有顯著與全損嚴重事故相關，特別是小型油輪意外事故之沉沒事件，將導致船東高幅度資產的損失危險。因此小型油輪安全管理應著重於降低意外事故所造成沉沒之發生頻率；具體來說，採取安全管理策略，應以改善機械設備維護及注重人員安全培訓為主。
This study applied the logistic regression model to investigate the causes of serious oil tanker accidents. The statistical data was derived from the IMO's global integrated shipping information system from 1980 to 2010. The purpose of the study was to identify the actual risk factors for accidents that caused the total loss of the tanker. It was found that the type of the tanker and the type of accident were significantly related to the total accident loss. In particular, the sinking of a small tanker accident would lead to high risk of loss of assets. Therefore, the safety management of small oil tankers should focus on reducing the frequency of sinking caused by accidents; specifically, safety management strategies should be adopted to improve the maintenance of machinery and equipment; focus on personnel safety training.
期刊論文
1.Lu, C. S.、Tsai, C. L.(2008)。The effects of safety climate on vessel accidents in the container shipping context。Accident Analysis and Prevention，40(2)，594-601。  new window
2.Al-Ghamdi, A. S.(2002)。Using logistic regression to estimate the influence of accident factors on accident severity。Accident Analysis and Prevention，34(6)，729-741。  new window
3.Hilakivi, I.、Veilahti, J.、Asplund, P.、Sinivuo, J.、Laitinen, L.、Koskenvuo, K.(1989)。A Sixteen-Factor Personality Test for Predicting Automobile Driving Accidents of Young Drivers。Accident Analysis and Prevention，21(5)，413-418。  new window
4.陳彥宏、張家榕(20031000)。散裝貨輪安全研究（2）--散裝貨輪安全評估模式之研究。海運研究學刊，15，39-59。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.陳彥宏、張家榕(20031000)。散裝貨輪安全研究（1）--散裝貨輪全損海難風險分析。國立臺灣海洋大學海運學報，12，77-92。new window  延伸查詢new window
6.Cesnauskis, M.、Tarasevičius, R.(2004)。Analysis of statistics and investigations of marine casualties, registered in Lithuanian competent authorities during the period of 1999-2003。Sea & Environment，2，33-40。  new window
7.Cesnauskis, M.(2007)。Model for probabilistic assessment of oil outflow event caused by tanker accident。Transportation，22(3)，187-194。  new window
8.Hashemi, R. R.、LeBlanc, L. A.、Rucks, C. T.、Shearry, A.(1995)。Vessel accident modeling: neural networks, discriminant analysis and logistic regression。Expert Systems with Applications，9(3)，247-256。  new window
9.Jin, D.、Kite-Powell, H.、Talley, W. K.(2001)。The safety of commercial fishing: determinants of vessel total losses and injuries。Journal of Safety Research，32(2)，209-228。  new window
10.Stamatiadis, N.、Deacon, J. A.(1995)。Trends in highway safety: effects of an aging population on accident propensity。Accident Analysis & Prevention，27(4)，443-459。  new window
會議論文
1.Milton, J.、Mannering, F.(1997)。The relationship between highway geometric, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies。The 76th Annual Meeting, Transportation Research Board。Washington, D. C.。  new window
2.Papanikolaou, A.、Eliopoulou, E.、Alissafaki, A.、Aksu, S.、Delautre, S.、Mikelis, N.(2005)。Critical review of AFRAMAX tankers incidents。The 3rd International Conference ENSUS，(會議日期: April, 13-15)。Newcastle upon Tyne。  new window
3.Papanikolaou, A.、Eliopoulou, E.、Mikelis, N.、Aksu, S.、Delautre, S.(2006)。Casualty analysis of tankers。Marine Accidents III Conference，(會議日期: January 25-26, 2006)。London。  new window
4.Psaraftis, H. N.、Panagakos, G.、Desypris, N.、Ventikos, N.(1998)。An analysis of maritime transportation risk factors。ISOPE Conference，(會議日期: May 1998)。Montreal。  new window
5.Psaraftis, H. N.、Panagakos, G.、Desypris, N.、Ventikos, N.(1998)。The human element as a factor in marine accidents。IMLA-10 Conference。  new window
6.UNCTAD(2008)。Review o f Maritime Transport。The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development secretariat。Geneva。  new window
7.UNCTAD(2017)。Review of Maritime Transport。The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development secretariat。Geneva。  new window
學位論文
1.陳治平(2006)。運用數值定量分析探討商船海難全損之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣海洋大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.UK P. & I. Club(1997)。Analysis of major claims: Ten-year trends in maritime risk。Thomas Miller P and I Ltd.。  new window
2.Hair, J. F.、Anderson, R. E.、Tatham, R. L.、Black, W. C.(2016)。Multivariate Data Analysis。New York：Macmillan。  new window
3.US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(1992)。Oil spill case histories, 1967-1991。Washington：NOAA。  new window
其他
1.Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty(2017)。Safety and Shipping Review 2017，http://www.agcs.allianz.com/insights/white-papers-and-case-studies/safety-and-shipping-review-2017/。  new window
2.Devanney, J.(2009)。Uses and Abuses of Ship Casualty Data Center for Tankship Excellence，http://www.c4tx.org/ctx/pub/casdata.pdf。  new window
3.ITOPF(2017)。Oil tanker spill statistics 2017，http://www.itopf.com/fileadmin/data/Photos/Statistics/Oil_Spill_Stats_2017_web.pdf。  new window
4.Lloyd’s Maritime Information Services (LMIS) incidents data，https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/incidents/。  new window
5.The Guardian News(2015)。Worse things still happen at sea: the shipping disasters we never hear about，https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/maritime-murders-justice-for-the-2000-sailors-who-go-missing-each-year-9950812.html。  new window
6.UK P&I Club(2008)。Annual Report 2007，http://www.ukpandi.com。  new window
 
 
 
 
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