水泥為重要營建材料之一，其平衡的供需狀況對國家重大建設推展有關鍵性之影響。本研究利用歷史資料皆別建立總體經濟指標、營造工程生產總值與水泥消費量間之迴歸模型。再利用經建會對國家建設立年計畫所設定之規劃指標來推值未來臺灣地區的水泥需求量。並對照國內現有水泥廠商的產能規劃，分析國內未來十年水泥供需的趨勢。最後則就政策規劃的檢討以及開源、節流等方向，提出因應國內未來水泥供需趨勢之策略，以供政策規劃單位、工程主辦單位、工程設計單位、水泥夜商、供應商等參考。

　　　　　Using stepwise process, this research identifies that both fixed capital formation and total construction value are significant independent variables can be applied for predicting cement demand for Taiwan Area. Results of time series analysis are also presented in this research for comparison purposes. Data related to capacity estimation of existing cement factories are compiled for examining possible differences between cement demand and supply in coming decade. A strategic framework for resolving potential shortage of cement supply is proposed to assist government agencies in policy reviewing and planning.