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題名:固定及管理浮動匯率制度對國外干擾的隔絕功能--臺灣之實證研究
書刊名:經濟論文
作者:詹維玲 引用關係藍致遠
作者(外文):Chan, Vei-linLan, Chu-yun
出版日期:1996
卷期:24:1
頁次:頁159-186
主題關鍵詞:固定匯率管理浮動匯率國外干擾臺灣
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:44
     本文的目的是探討臺灣的管理浮動匯率制度在隔絕外衝擊對國內經濟的影響方面是否有較優越的功能。我們選擇將零限制條件加在變數間的短期關係上,而估計一個包含五個變睥的多變數結構式向量自我迴歸模型。這五個變數包括國際原油價格、美國與臺灣貨幣供給成長率差距、美國實質國民生產毛額、日本躉售物價指數及臺灣實質國民生產毛額。預測誤差變異數分解結果顯示,管理浮動匯率制度在隔絕國外衝擊對國內經濟影響力方面,可能有優的功能。然而,上述結余可能是由於兩個匯率制度期間的內外衝擊性質有明顯差異,而不必然是改採理浮動匯率制度的結果。我們進一步比較兩種匯率制度期間臺灣實質國民生產毛額對一單位國外衝擊的衝擊反應函數。我們發現,長期來說,管理浮動匯率級度在隔絕外衝擊對臺灣國內經濟的影響方面的確有較優越的功能。
     The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether floating exhange rates have the superior insulation properties in Taiwan. We estimated a structural VAR model using short-run identification restrictions. Our results of the forecast error variance decompositions support the superior insulation properties of floating exchange rates. We also examined the nature and magnititude of shocks. The results of impulse responses to Taiwan's real GNP to one unit shocks in the growth rates of oil price and U.S. real output, difference of growth rates of the U.S. and Taiwan money supply and the growth rate of Japanese prices all indicate that the floating exchange rate regime is more effective in insulating the economy form foreign disturbances than is the fixed rate regime.
期刊論文
1.Miles, M. A.(1978)。Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rate, and Monetary Independence。American Economic Review,68,428-436。  new window
2.Mussa, M.(1986)。Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence and Implications。Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,25(1),117-214。  new window
3.Doan, Thomas、Litterman, Robert B.、Sims, Christopher A.(1984)。Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions。Econometric Reviews,3(1),1-100。  new window
4.Blanchard, Olivier J.、Quah, Danny(1989)。The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Disturbances。American Economic Review,79,655-673。  new window
5.Bernanke, Ben S.(1986)。Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation。Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,25(1),49-99。  new window
6.Genberg, H.、Salemi, M. K.、Swoboda, A.(1987)。The Relative Importance of Foreign and Domestic Disturbances for Aggregate Fluctuations in Open Economy: Switzerland, 1964-1981。Journal of Monetary Economics,19,45-67。  new window
7.Stock, James H.、Watson, Mark W.(1988)。Testing for Common Trends。Journal of the American Statistical Association,83(404),1097-1107。  new window
8.Dickey, D. A.、Fuller, W. A.(1981)。Likelihood ratio statistics for auto-regressive time series with a unit root。Econometrica,49,1057-1072。  new window
9.Baxter, M.(1991)。Business Cycles, Stylized Facts, and the Exchange Rare Regime: Evidence from the United States。Journal of international Money and Finance,10,71-88。  new window
10.Bordo, M. D.(1993)。The Gold Standard, Bretton Woods and other Monetary Regimes: A Historical Appraisal。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,123-191。  new window
11.Burbidge, J.、Harrison, A.(1985)。(Innovation) Accounting for the Impact of Fluctuations in U. S. Variables on the Canadian Economy。Canadian Journal of Economics,18,784-798。  new window
12.Gerlach, S.(1988)。World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,20,621-632。  new window
13.Lastrapes, W. D.、Koray, F.(1990)。International Transmission of Aggregate Shocks under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: United Kindom, France and Germany, 1959-1985。Journal of International Money and Finance,9(4),402-423。  new window
14.Hutchison, M.、Walsh, C. E.(1992)。Empirical Evidence on the Insulation Properties of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates: The Japanese Experience。Journal of International Economics,32,241-263。  new window
15.Meltzer, A. H.(1993)。Real Exchange Rates: Some Evidence from the Postwar Years。Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review,103-117。  new window
16.Swoboda, A. K.(1983)。Exchange Rate Regimes and European--U.S. Policy Interdependence。IMF Staff Paper,30,75-102。  new window
17.Nelson, C. R.、Plosser, C. I.(1982)。Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications。Journal of Monetary Economics,10(2),139-162。  new window
18.Phillips, Peter C. B.、Ouliaris, Sam(1990)。Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration。Econometrica,58(1),165-193。  new window
19.Schwert, G. W.(1987)。Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data。Journal of Monetary Economics,20(1),73-103。  new window
20.Baxter, Marianne、Stockman, Alan(1989)。Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime: Some international evidence。Journal of Monetary Economics,23(3),377-400。  new window
21.Sims, Christopher A.(1980)。Macroeconomics and Reality。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,48(1),1-48。  new window
22.黃朝熙(19890100)。Post-War Taiwan Business Cycles: Evidence from International Factors。經濟論文叢刊,17(1),1-19。new window  new window
23.Lutkepohl, H.(1985)。Comparison of Criteria for Estimating the Order of a Vector Autoregressive Process。Journal of Time Series Analysis,6,35-52。  new window
24.Yoo, Byung-Sam、Wang, Ping、Ahmed, S.、Ickes, B. W.(1993)。International business cycles。The American Economic Review,83,335-359。  new window
會議論文
1.黄仁德(1990)。美國經濟干擾對臺灣經濟波動的影響--兼論固定匯率與管理浮動匯率的比較:1961年〜1987年。中國經濟學會年會,51-91。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.Litterman, R. B.(1980)。Techniques for Forecasting with Vector Autoregressions(博士論文)。University of Minnesota。  new window
圖書
1.Lütkepohl, H.(1991)。Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis。Berlin:Springer-Verlag。  new window
2.Fuller, Wayne A.(1976)。Introduction to Statistical Time Series。New York, NY:John Wiley and Sons。  new window
圖書論文
1.Campbell, J. Y.、Perron, P.(1991)。Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots。NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1991。Cambridge, MA:MIT Press。  new window
2.Friedman, Milton(1953)。The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates。Essays in Positive Economics。Chicago:University of Chicago Press。  new window
3.Blanchard, Olivier J.、Watson, Mark W.(1986)。Are Business Cycles All Alike?。The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change。Chicago:University of Chicago Press。  new window
4.Shapiro, M. D.、Watson, M. W.(1988)。Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations。NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988。  new window
 
 
 
 
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