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題名:臺灣股票市場報酬率之橫斷面與縱斷面混合分析
書刊名:輔仁管理評論
作者:古永嘉 引用關係李鑑剛
作者(外文):Goo, Yeong-jia JamesLee, Gen-kong
出版日期:1998
卷期:5:1
頁次:頁77-95
主題關鍵詞:股票報酬率風險係數混合迴歸Stock returmsRisk coefficientPooling regression
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(5) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:87
     本研究試圖結合以往學者所發現的規模效應、權益帳面值(即淨值)對市價比效 應、本益比較應、風險係數與前期報酬率等之變數,探討以上各變數對股票報酬率之影響程 度。在風險係數之估計上,本研究採用Scholes & Williams所採用的beta估計法,以求更能 代表真實市場之風險。此外,有鑑於Fama & French(1992)之迴歸方法,僅考慮了橫斷面資 訊,而忽略了縱斷面時間因素所產生序列相關之問題,本研究同時比較三種時間序列與橫斷 面混合迴歸分析(time-series/cross-section pooling regression)方法,解決了變異數齊 一性、時間序列獨立性之問題,希冀研究結果更能代表實際狀況。研究結果發現,臺灣股市 存在有規模效應、淨值對市價比效應,而風險係數為不重要的變數。月份效應方面,臺灣股 票市場月份間報酬率確實存在差異。進一步利用Duncan多平均數距檢定法,發現所有月份中 以二月份之報酬率最高。若以報酬率最高的二月份而言,不論規模效應、淨值對市價比效應 、本益比效應、風險係數與前期報酬率,皆能顯著影響股票報酬率。
     This paper analyzes the impacts of the size effect, BE/ME effect, P/E ratio effect, risk coefficient(beta) and prior returns on stock returns. Specifically, the beta coefficient is estimated using Scholes & Williams methodology. Moreover, in Fama & French (1992) paper, only cross-sectional information were taken into account, which ignored the serially correlated problem existed in the time series data. This paper utilizes three time-series/ cross-section pooling regression models so that both time-series and cross- section variations are considered. The results show that both size effect and BE/ME effect have significant impacts on the annual stock returns. The beta coefficient, however, has little influence on annual returns. For the monthly effect, the rates of returns among months are significantly different in Taiwan stock market. The rate of returns in February is the highest and the beta coefficient becomes the most influential factor in February. All of the variables, including size, BE/ME ratio, P/E ratio, risk coefficient and priors return, have significant impact on February stock returns.
期刊論文
1.Basu, Sanjoy(1977)。Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis。Journal of Finance,32(3),663-682。  new window
2.Fama, E. F.、MacBeth, J.(1973)。Risk, Return and Equlibrium: Empirical tests。Journal of Political Economy,81,607-603。  new window
3.Chan, K. C.、Chen, N. F.(1988)。An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as An Instrumental Variable for Risk。Journal of Finance,43(2),309-325。  new window
4.Parks, R. W.(1967)。Efficient Estimation of a system of Regression Equations when Distrubances Are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated。Journal of the American Statistical Association,62,500-509。  new window
5.Nicholson, F. S.(1960)。Price Earnings Ratios。Financial Analyst Journal,1960(Jul./Aug.),43-45。  new window
6.Fuller, W. A.、Battese, G. E.(1974)。Estimation of Linear Model with Crossed-Error Structure。Journal of Econometrics,2,67-68。  new window
7.Fisher, L.(1966)。Some New Stock-Market Indexes。Journal of Business,39(1),191-225。  new window
8.Searle, S. R.(1971)。Topics in Variance Component Estimation。Biometrics,26,1-76。  new window
9.Scholes, M.、Williams, J.(1977)。Estimate Betas from Non-synchronous Data。Journal of Financial Economics,5,309-328。  new window
10.Reinganum, M.(1981)。Misspecification of Capital Assect Pricing: Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings Yields and Market Values。Journal of Financial Economics,9,19-46。  new window
11.Banz, Rolf W.(1981)。The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks。Journal of Financial Economics,9(1),3-18。  new window
12.Fant, L. Franklin、Peterson, David R.(1995)。The Effect of Size, Book-to-market Equity, Prior Returns, and Beta on Stock Returns: January Versus the Remainder of the Year。Journal of Financial Research,18(2),129-142。  new window
13.Sharpe, William F.(1964)。Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk。The Journal of Finance,19(3),425-442。  new window
14.Fama, Eugene F.、French, Kenneth R.(1992)。The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns。The Journal of Finance,47(2),427-465。  new window
15.De Bondt, Werner F. M.、Thaler, Richard H.(1985)。Does the Stock Market Overreact?。The Journal of Finance,40(3),793-805。  new window
學位論文
1.方淑莉(1990)。公司規模、本益比與股票報酬之研究(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.李俊龍(1990)。公司規模、負債權益比與股票報酬關係之證實研究(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.林伶如(1990)。股票本益比與公司規模對股票報酬之影響--以台灣股市為例(碩士論文)。國立中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.陳鄔福(1979)。資本資產定價模式運用於臺灣股票市場之研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.陳俐君(1991)。股票價格預測模式之績效評估--以台灣上市公司為例(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.陳明霞(1991)。盈餘成長預估、價格盈餘比率輿投資組合績效--不同投資區間下之實證結果(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
7.連晴陽(1991)。臺灣地區股票投資組合風險分散及資本資產定價模型之實證研究(碩士論文)。國立政治大學。  延伸查詢new window
8.黃昭祥(1992)。臺灣股市公司規模、本益比、殖利率與價格效應交互作用之實證研究(碩士論文)。國立中正大學。  延伸查詢new window
9.曾雪雅(1988)。台灣地區股票上市公司每股盈餘之時間數列分析與預測(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
10.Da Silva, J. G. C.(1975)。The Analysis of Cross-Sectional Time Series Data(博士論文)。North Carolina State University。  new window
11.王明仁(1989)。股票益本比與公司年度盈餘對投資組合投資績效影響之研究(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
12.陳麗玲(1994)。臺灣股票市場中股票報酬率之橫斷面分析(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
13.高蘭芬(1990)。資本資產定價模式於台灣證券市場之實證研究--概度比檢定法之應用(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
14.李春旺(1988)。股價行為與規模效應:台灣股票市場實證研究(博士論文)。國立政治大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.SAS INstitute Inc.(1979)。SAS Technical Report S-106 TSCSREG: A SAS Procedure for the Analysis of Time-Series Cross-Section Data。Cary, NC:SAS Institute Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
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