目標：本研究之目的在藉由專家意見對未來醫師人力進行預測並尋求適當的政策改革。方法：應用德菲法與紮根理論研究法對四十四位專家進行二回合問卷調查。結果：(1)全民健保實施對專科結構之影響較醫師人力來得大。(2)未來人力供需及專科結構，其他條件不變下：專家預測會「熱門科人力過剩，冷門科人力不足」、「醫師集中在大醫院，中小型醫院招募不易」。(3)二十四項改革方案評估，首要改革方案為「全面檢討支付標準」，評價最低為「增加醫學系公費生」。結論：本研究結果可做未來立法或施政之參考。

　　　　　Objectives: This study analyzed physician manpower and specialty structure after the implementation of National Health Insurance, predicting and finding adaptive policy. Methods: The study utilized the Delphi Method and Grounded Theory Method to estimate future changes in physician manpower in Taiwan. Analysis of the questionnaire collected from 44 experts showed the following results. Results: First, implementation of National Health Insurance has had a greater influence on the structure of subspecialties than on physician manpower. Second, all other things being equal, there will be an uneven distribution of specialists in the future. There will be an excess of physicians in popular specialties and a shortage in unpopular specialties. In addition, physicians will flock to large hospitals, causing a shortage in small hospitals. Finally, an across-the-board evaluation of the reimbursement scheme is the top priority among the twenty-four proposals, whereas increasing the number government scholarship-sponso red medical students is the least favorable proposal. Conclusions: The results of this research can be used as a reference for lawmakers and administrators.