石化行業作為中國八大典型高碳排放產業之一,也是碳市場參與的重要行業。在國家2020年碳排放強度目標的約束下,客觀評價其行業減碳的壓力,對于政府部門科學制定各個行業碳排放配額的分配方案具有重要支撐作用。同時,亦對于通過低碳轉型升級實現行業的可持續發展和支撐國家的工業減排目標具有理論和現實意義。本文針對石化行業9個子部門,結合我國經濟發展的總體背景和趨勢以及石化行業的相關數據,以2010年為基準情景,在2020年國家碳排放強度分別下降45%和50%的減排約束目標下,構建了一個動態CGE模型——PCCGE,借助GAMS軟件模擬分析,預測了到2020年國家和石化行業經濟總量、能源消費結構和碳排放量及碳強度等的變化趨勢。研究結果表明,相比基準情景,在45%、50%的碳強度減排目標下,國家和石化行業的經濟增長、能源消費結構和碳排放強度等指標分別受到一定程度影響,其中,50%的減排目標對國家整體經濟增速影響更為明顯;對煤炭、石油這兩種高碳能源的需求產生了較顯著的約束效應;相比國家45%—50%的低碳發展目標,石化行業減碳承受壓力達到60.63%至64.78%,面臨著艱巨的減排任務與挑戰。最后,文章結合低碳市場化背景提出了如下建議:科學預測典型高碳行業的減碳潛力,謹慎應對石化等行業企業參與碳市場交易過程中碳配額指標的制定與分配;充分利用技術創新和能源結構調整等戰略,提高可再生能源的使用規模,促進能源消耗結構的優化和調整;構建石化行業節能低碳技術產學研協同創新體系,解決共性節能技術瓶頸;實施石化行業企業低碳發展戰略,建設完善碳排放管理體系是行業節能減碳的重要手段。

As one of the Chinese eight-typical high carbon emission industries,petrochemical industry also plays an important role in carbon market. Under the constraints of carbon emission intensity target by 2020,an objective evaluation which made from the pressure of the carbon emission has important supporting function for the government departments to formulate the carbon emission quota allocation scheme in different industries. Meanwhile,it has theoretical and practical significance for achieving sustainable development and supporting industrial emission reduction targets in China by low-carbon transformation and upgrading. This article aims at nine subsidiary departments of petrochemical industry,combine with the general background、the trend of Chinese economic development and related data of the petrochemical industry,base on 2010 year,under the emission restriction target of the national carbon emission intensity decreased by 45% and 50% respectively by 2020,a dynamic CGE model which called PCCGE is constructed,meanwhile,GAMS software shows the trends of total economic output,energy consumption structure,carbon emission and carbon intensity from national and petrochemical industry by 2020. The results show that compared to benchmark cases,total economic output,energy consumption structure,carbon emission and carbon intensity from national and petrochemical industry have been affected,especially50% of emission reduction targets obviously affect the speed of national economic growth; and the demand for two high carbon energy sources,coal and oil, has been significantly restrained. Compare with national 45%-50%’s low-carbon development goals,petrochemical industry goals to finish 60.63%-64. 78%,which means that they have to face formidable emission reduction tasks and challenges. Finally,base on the background of low carbon market,this article gives the following suggestions: firstly,predicting the carbon reduction potential in the typical high carbon industry scientifically,and carefully deal with the petrochemical industry and other enterprises to participate in the carbon market trading process of carbon quota formulation and distribution; secondly,making full use of technological innovation and energy structure adjustment strategy,increasing the scale of renewable energy use,promoting the optimization and adjustment of energy consumption structure; thirdly,structuring a synergistic、resource sharing and innovative system low-carbon technology in petrochemical industry,solving common energy saving technology bottleneck; finally,implementing lowcarbon development strategy of petrochemical enterprises and building and improving carbon emission management system are important means of energy saving and emission reduction.