在全面二孩生育政策實施背景下,文章運用分家庭類型的分年齡別孩次遞進生育率模型測算政策目標群體并根據其再生育意愿和計劃完成時間推測新增出生人口,得出生育水平、生育模式,并對未來人口發展趨勢進行預測分析。結果顯示:十三五期間將累計多出生近2100萬人,總人口峰值將推遲到2030年的14.66億,略大于不調整政策的情況。同時,"全面二孩"生育政策一定程度上放緩了總人口和勞動力人口的減少速度;增加了2035年之后的勞動力供給、減輕了勞動力負擔和人口老化程度。但預測結果也顯示總人口的減少趨勢并沒有改變,2030年后我國人口將以平均每年640多萬的規模持續減少,到本世紀末人口減少到10.16億。

China’s universal two-child policy will definitely impact the future development of population.This paper identifies the target women of the universal two-child policy by family type,fertility history and fertility intention,according to which we calculate the number of extra births and related fertility rates and patterns.Scenarios of population forecast are developed using the model of the parity progressive population dynamics.Results show that the universal two-child policy would produce additional21 million population during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.The population peak would be postponed to2030 standing at 1.47 billion,slightly larger than the scenario without adjusting policies.Meanwhile,decline in population and labor force would slow down,and labor supply would increase while the pace of population ageing decrease after 2035.However,the long-term declining trend of the total population would not change.China’s population would continue to shrink at an average rate of 6.4million per year after 2030,and will be reduced to 1.02 billion by the end of the century.