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題名：潛變量建模的貝葉斯方法
書刊名：心理科學進展
作者：王孟成／鄧俏文／畢向陽
出版日期：2017
卷期：2017(10)
頁次：1682-1695
主題關鍵詞：貝葉斯；頻率論；潛變量建模；Mplus；Bayesian；Frequentist methods；Latent variable modeling
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貝葉斯統計是統計學的兩大流派之一,近年來貝葉斯統計在社會及行為科學領域日益流行。鑒于國內心理學界對貝葉斯統計應用仍不廣泛,本文嘗試從非技術性的角度對貝葉斯統計用于潛變量建模的過程進行簡要介紹。主要涉及貝葉斯與頻率論在統計學基本概念上的對比;貝葉斯統計的基本原理和分析過程。最后以一個驗證性因子分析為例,簡要介紹貝葉斯統計用于潛變量建模的分析過程。希望本文能為國內心理學者進行潛變量建模提供新的視角。
Bayesian statistical methods is one of the two statistic schools.Recently,Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in social and behavioral research.However,domestic psychological and behavioral scholars are not familiar with it.We provide an untechnical introduction about Bayesian statistics,particularly in Bayesian method used in latent variable modeling.Specifically,first we compared the difference between Bayesian methods and Frequentist methods in several basic concepts.Thereafter,the Bayes’ Theorem and its analysis procedure were introduced.Finally,to illustrate Bayesian methods in latent variable modeling(i.e.,confirmatory factor analysis),a concrete sample was presented.In the end of the paper,we briefly discussed the future direction of Bayesian methods in psychology research.
期刊論文
1.Kass, Robert E.、Raftery, Adrian E.(1995)。Bayes factors。Journal of the American Statistical Association，90(430)，773-795。  new window
2.Muthén, B.、Asparouhov, T.(2012)。Bayesian structural equation modeling: A more flexible representation of substantive theory。Psychological Methods，17(3)，313-335。  new window
3.King, D. W.、Leskin, G. A.、King, L. A.、Weathers, F. W.(1998)。Confirmatory factor analysis of the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale: Evidence for the dimensionality of posttraumatic stress disorder。Psychological Assessment，10，90-96。  new window
4.Meng, X.-L.(1994)。Posterior predictive p-values。The Annals of Statistics，22，1142-1160。  new window
5.Kruschke, J. K.、Aguinis, H.、Joo, H.(2012)。The time has come: Bayesian methods for data analysis in the organizational sciences。Organizational Research Methods，15(4)，722-752。  new window
6.Cohen, J.(1994)。The earth is round (p<.05)。American Psychologist，49(12)，997-1003。  new window
7.Berger, J. O.、Sellke, T.(1987)。Testing a Point Null Hypothesis: The Irreconcilability of P Values and Evidence。Journal of the American Statistical Association，82(397)，112-122。  new window
8.Raftery, A. E.(1986)。Choosing models for cross-classifications (Comment on grusky and hauser)。American Sociological Review，51(1)，145-146。  new window
9.De Vries, R. M.、Morey, R. D.(2013)。Bayesian hypothesis testing for single-subject designs。Psychological Methods，18，165-185。  new window
10.Depaoli, S.、Clifton, J. P.(2015)。A Bayesian approach to multilevel structural equation modeling with continuous and dichotomous outcomes。Structural Equation Modeling，22，327-351。  new window
11.Depaoli, S.、Van de Schoot, R.(2017)。Improving transparency and replication in Bayesian statistics: The wambs-checklist。Psychological Methods，22(2)，240-261。  new window
12.Dienes, Z.(2011)。Bayesian versus orthodox statistics: Which side are you on?。Perspectives on Psychological Science，6，274-290。  new window
13.Gelman, Andrew、Meng, Xiao-li、Stern, Hal(19961000)。Posterior Predictive Assessment of Model Fitness Via Realized Discrepancies。Statistica Sinica，6(4)，733-807。  new window
14.Jackman, S.(2004)。Bayesian analysis for political research。Annual Review of Political Science，7，483-505。  new window
15.Kruschke, J. K.(2013)。Bayesian estimation supersedes the t test。Journal of Experimental Psychology: General，142，573-603。  new window
16.MacCallum, R. C.、Edwards, M. C.、Cai, L.(2012)。Hopes and cautions in implementing Bayesian structural equation modeling。Psychological Methods，17，340-345。  new window
17.Rouder, J. N.、Morey, R. D.、Verhagen, J.、Swagman, A. R.、Wagenmakers, E. J.(2017)。Bayesian analysis of factorial designs。Psychological Methods，22(2)，304-321。  new window
18.Van de Schoot, R.、Winter, S.、Ryan, O.、Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, M. A. J.、Depaoli, S.(2016)。A systematic review of Bayesian papers in psychology: The last 25 years。Psychological Methods，22(2)，217-239。  new window
19.Wang, Lijuan Peggy、Preacher, Kristopher J.(2015)。Moderated mediation analysis using Bayesian methods。Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal，22(2)，249-263。  new window
20.Yuan, Y.、MacKinnon, D. P.(2009)。Bayesian mediation analysis。Psychological Methods，14(4)，301-322。  new window
21.Spiegelhalter, D. J.、Best, N. G.、Carlin, B. P.、Van Der Linde, A.(2002)。Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit (with discussion)。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)，64(4)，583-640。  new window
圖書
1.Lee, S.-Y.(2007)。Structural equation modeling: A Bayesian approach。Wiley。  new window
2.Gelman, A.、Carlin, J. B.、Stern, H. S.、Rubin, D. B.(2004)。Bayesian Data Analysis。New York, NY：Chapman & Hall。  new window
3.Lynch, Scott M.(2007)。Introduction to applied Bayesian statistics and estimation for social scientists。Springer。  new window
4.王孟成(2014)。潛變量建模與Mplus應用：基礎篇。重慶：重慶大學出版社。  延伸查詢new window
5.Gelman, A.、Carlin, J. B.、Stern, H. S.、Dunson, D. B.、Vehtari, A.、Rubin, D. B.(2013)。Bayesian data analysis。Chapman and Hall。  new window
6.Muthén, L.、Muthén, B.(1998)。Mplus user's guide。Los Angeles, CA：Muthén & Muthén。  new window
 
 
 
 
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