利用2019年世界人口展望數據梳理1950～2018年世界各國(地區)人口負增長狀況,并通過同原點比較模型觀察中國和典型國家的人口負增長發展路徑。研究發現:(1)1950～2018年全球共107個國家(地區)出現人口負增長,其中由人口內在機制導致的有20個;(2)自然負增長國家(地區)除日本外全部集中于歐洲,最長負增長域平均為19.05年,且面臨嚴峻的低生育率和老齡化形勢;(3)與德匈俄"進入早,發展慢,程度輕"的模式不同,中日呈現出"進入晚,發展快,長期加速,回彈乏力"的負增長模式,且勞動年齡人口早于總人口縮減,老齡化、高齡化更嚴重,少兒人口占比更低。人口內在機制導致的人口增長由正轉負是一國人口變動模式的分水嶺,應盡快探索負增長時代人口發展新規律、短期應急措施和長遠規劃。

Using the WPP2019 data, this article investigates negative population growth across the world during 1950-2018, and compares negative population growth between China and typical countries with identical origin point model. 107 countries(regions) in the world experienced negative population growth in 1950-2018, of which 20 were caused by the inherent mechanism of population. These 20 countries are all from Europe except Japan, and have experienced 19-year longest negative growth duration on average, and confront low fertility and population ageing. Compared to Germany, Hungary, and Russia, negative population growth occurs later in Japan and China, exhibiting a pattern of rapid development, long-term acceleration and weak resilience. In addition, the working-age population decrease earlier than the total population in Japan and China, ageing is severer, and the proportions of children aged 0-14 are lower. It is of growing significance to explore the new rules of population development, policy responses and long-term planning as soon as possible in the negative population growth era.