利用2015年1%人口抽樣調查數據,通過空間分析探索中國三代直系家庭的分布及其影響因素。結果發現,三代直系家庭比例在中國地級行政單元上存在明顯的空間分化,總體呈現出北方較低,南方較高的模式。進一步的可變系數地理加權回歸模型顯示,社會經濟、人口和文化等因素均會影響三代直系家庭的分布,但是它們的效應存在顯著的空間異質性。社會經濟發展和人口因素會因地區文化和城鎮化模式的差異而呈現出對三代直系家庭比例截然相反的促進或是抑制作用。同時,房價因素也會受地區對房價敏感程度的影響產生分化效果。這些結果說明,社會經濟發展水平、發展模式和文化傳統這三者會形成一種相互作用又協同進化的關系,它們之間的復雜互動塑造了中國家庭結構的獨特性。

Based on the 2015 Chinese 1% population survey, this study examines the spatial patterns of Chinese stem family and its influencing factors. It is found that there is significant heterogeneity among the distribution of stem families at the prefecture-level city with generally higher proportion of stem family in the south China and lower proportion in the north China. We further explore the spatial variation of factors affecting stem families using Geographic Weighted Regression(GWR) model. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic, demographic, and culture factors all play important roles in determining the distribution of stem families. The former two factors can exhibit opposite impact conditioned on the local culture and the development model of urbanization. Meanwhile, the impact of housing price is also divergent depending on the sensitivity of local housing market to the price change. These results suggest that the interplay of socioeconomic level, development mode, and cultural tradition ultimately shapes the pattern of Chinese stem family.