文章基于2014年中國家庭追蹤調查數據研究了房價對家庭生育決策的影響,選用已婚夫婦結婚當年和結婚5年后的房價分別作為生育一孩和生育二孩的影響因素,并通過比較一套房和多套房的相關結論討論了房價影響家庭生育決策的渠道。本研究發現:(1)房價對生育孩子的概率有顯著負影響,房價每上漲1000元,生育一孩的概率將降低1.8%～2.9%,生育二孩的概率將降低2.4%～8.8%;(2)房價推遲了女性的初次生育年齡,房價每上漲1000元,初次生育年齡將提高0.14～0.26年;(3)房價上漲對生育決策的影響理論上存在擠出效應和財富效應兩種機制,但現實中擠出效應的影響更大。文章的結論意味著,我國生育率下降與房價上漲有一定關系,政府應抑制房價非理性上漲。

This paper examines the effect of housing price on family fertility decision based on the data of 2014 China Family Panel Studies. We chose housing prices at the time of marriage and the time of five years after marriage as the variables influencing the decisions to have the first child and the second child respectively. We also discuss the mechanisms through which housing price affects fertility decisions by comparing families only having one house and those having two and more houses. Three main results are found in this paper. First, housing price has a significant negative effect on the probability of having children. The probability of having the first and the second child would decrease by 1.8% to 2.9% and 2.4% to 8.8% if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Second, housing price postpones the age of females to have the first child. The age at first birth would increase by 0.14 to 0.26 years if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Third, there are two theoretical mechanisms explaining the effect of housing price on fertility decision, namely wealth mechanism and crowding mechanism. In reality, the degree of influence from the crowding mechanism is much bigger than that of the wealth mechanism. The results of this paper imply that decline of fertility rate in recent years is related to the rapid increase of housing price and government need to restrain the irrational increase of housing price.